Stephen Keech

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NFL DFS Primer: Divisional Rd

Wednesday, August 29, 2018


It’s the final weekend with four or more games on the NFL schedule, which for some signals the end of the DFS football season. There will still be plenty of action to be had around the industry over the next few weeks, but this is the last time I’ll be bringing you the Primer until September – thanks for reading this year and I hope I’ve helped you win some cash along the way. FanDuel has broken up the four-game slate into two-game Saturday/Sunday slates, so that’s the way I’ll format the article this week. Let’s get into the top plays for the Divisional Round.

 

 

 

SATURDAY SLATE

 

Quarterbacks


  1. Tom Brady ($9,000 on FanDuel, $7,000 on DraftKings) – Brady is a great bet to lead the position in points. He’s got the best draw on the board against a Titans defense that is stout against the run (7th in DVOA) while consistently struggling with the pass (24th in DVOA).
  2. Marcus Mariota ($7,600 on FanDuel, $5,900 on DraftKings) – If I’m not rostering Brady, I’m looking towards the QB on the other side of the field. He’s very likely going to be playing from behind and the added upside he brings in the running game makes him the preferred tournament target to the options in Philly.
 
 

Running Backs


  1. Dion Lewis ($7,800 on FanDuel, $6,600 on DraftKings) – Rex Burkhead, James White and Mike Gillislee are all questionable as of this writing. It’s sounding like Burkhead is going to be limited if he’s active, and if that’s the case I wouldn’t expect Gillislee to see the field much if at all. White’s presence would eat into Lewis’ receiving upside so make sure to keep up with this situation through lock.
  2. Derrick Henry ($7,000 on FanDuel, $7,300 on DraftKings) – In case you can’t tell, the NE/TEN game is the better bet for fantasy production. Henry is in line for another full workload with DeMarco Murray having been ruled out.
  3. Jay Ajayi ($6,600 on FanDuel, $4,600 on DraftKings) – If you’re looking to go a little off the board, Ajayi offers a lot of upside at a sub-$5K price tag on DraftKings. I’ll also have some exposure to Tevin Coleman as a source of salary relief.
 
 

Wide Receivers


  1. Chris Hogan ($6,600 on FanDuel, $5,200 on DraftKings) – I really hope people are hesitant to heavily roster Hogan given the amount of time he’s missed over the past few months, but I’m fully on board at a discounted price. There isn’t any reason to limit him at this point.
  2. Nelson Agholor ($5,900 on FanDuel, $4,800 on DraftKings) – Agholor is by far my favorite salary saver on the board. He runs primarily out of the slot where he’ll avoid Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford, and Agholor has actually drawn five more targets from Foles than Alshon Jeffery.
  3. Julio Jones ($8,500 on FanDuel, $7,900 on DraftKings) – Just in case I needed to remind you. Julio should be fed heavily on the perimeter as I don’t expect the Falcons to have as much success moving it on the ground.
  4. Corey Davis, Eric Decker, Rishard Matthews All three deserve consideration as punt plays at WR. Picking the correct one could have a fairly heavy impact on the slate. Decker is my favorite of the bunch followed by Davis.
 
 

Tight Ends


  1. Rob Gronkowski ($8,200 on FanDuel, $7,100 on DraftKings) – The price difference between he and Ertz isn’t enough to make me consider looking away from Gronk. I have him neck-and-neck with Julio as the top producer among pass-catchers, but the TE position lacks quality secondary options.
  2. Delanie Walker ($6,300 on FanDuel, $5,500 on DraftKings) – If you can’t afford Gronk or simply want to look in another direction, Walker is the best bet to lead the Titans in targets and is always a capable red-zone threat.
 
 


SUNDAY SLATE

 

 Quarterbacks


  1. Case Keenum ($7,600 on FanDuel, $6,100 on DraftKings) – With Big Ben facing off with arguably the best pass defense in the league and the Vikings defense being a black hole for QB production, Keenum is the top option for Sunday.
  2. Blake Bortles ($7,100 on FanDuel, $5,000 on DraftKings) – Spending up at RB is more of a priority for me than making a point to pay for Brees or Ben, so Bortles makes a lot of sense as a salary relief option. He’ll do very little if the Jags are able to control this game but that’s not the expected game flow.
 
 

Running Backs


  1. Le’Veon Bell ($9,400 on FanDuel, $9,600 on DraftKings) – Since I expect Big Ben and Antonio Brown to have some trouble on the perimeter, it’s very likely that I’m all in on Bell.
  2. Leonard Fournette ($7,500 on FanDuel, $6,900 on DraftKings) – I’d much prefer Fournette – who should be treated like a workhorse – to either Kamara or Ingram, who split work with one another, in a brutal matchup with Minnesota.
  3. Latavius Murray ($6,500 on FanDuel, $5,400 on DraftKings) – The Vikings rode Murray towards the end of the year and there is a chance they do it again on Sunday if they’re able to get out to an early lead.
 
 

Wide Receivers


  1. Adam Thielen ($7,500 on FanDuel, $7,600 on DraftKings) – I’m going to end up with more exposure to Thielen than Brown on the high end, but I’m not fully fading Brown.
  2. Dede Westbrook ($5,900 on FanDuel, $4,400 on DraftKings) – It gets ugly quick at receiver. The Jags receiver rotation is a mess at the moment but Westbrook is probably the safest bet to lead the team in targets.
  3. Brandon Coleman ($5,000 on FanDuel, $3,000 on DraftKings) – If you’re looking for a totally off the board play with touchdown upside, Coleman is well worth a look. He’s been out-snapping Willie Snead in the slot and won’t be dealing with Minnesota’s boundary corners.
 
 

Tight Ends


  1. Kyle Rudolph ($6,000 on FanDuel, $4,700 on DraftKings) – It’s a thin TE pool and Rudolph is head and shoulders above the rest as the top overall option.
  2. Josh Hill ($5,000 on FanDuel, $2,600 on DraftKings) – Hill was able to find the end-zone last week and remains a viable red-zone threat with Michael Thomas likely to tangle with Xavier Rhodes.


Stephen "SBK" Keech is a head-to-head specialist who has shot up to being ranked in the Top 100 for Overall, MLB, NBA, and NHL. SBK’s a lead contributor on RotoGrinders, and can be found on Twitter @StephByronKeech.
Email :Stephen Keech



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