Rich Hribar

The Worksheet

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The NFL Week 6 Worksheet

Wednesday, October 10, 2018


It’s hard to believe that we’re already in Week 6, but here we are. The fantasy points keep coming in buckets in 2018 and the passing volume just isn’t slowing down. So far through five weeks, we’ve already had eight different games in which a quarterback has attempted 55 or more passes this season. Last year that number was just three and the most we’ve seen in an NFL season over the past decade is 11. Week 6 is also another two-team bye week with the Saints and Lions resting, so get those guys out of lineups.

 

For those that are new here, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.

 

As the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is an expectations-based column over a linear start/sit forum. The labels for each subset of players for each game is simply the vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player. Players that are high performers week-to-week are held to different standards than a secondary option in an offense. Every player runs into down weeks, and we’re trying to identify those moments, even for the star players you’re going to ride through thick and thin moments that don’t tally many low points during the season. That said, we’re still embracing some of the elements that will go along with a start/sit column as a byproduct of those expectations. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin's Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process.  Remember, you control your own team. If you are curious as to my personal weekly rankings, they can be found each and every week in the Season Pass section.

 

Editor's Note: If you love Fantasy Football you have to be playing on DRAFT. It's daily fantasy football snake drafts instead of salary caps. All the fun of season long drafts but with no management and they last for just one week. They take minutes to complete and there's even auction drafts! No more setting lineups or constantly worrying about pros, just draft and win! Right now DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers an exclusive FREE entry into a real money draft when you make your first deposit! Here's the link

 

All lines are taken from VegasInsider on Tuesday nights 

 

Eagles @ Giants


PhiladelphiaRank@NY GiantsRank
-3   Spread 3  
24.0   Implied Total 21.0  
20.6 25 Points/Gm 20.8 23
20.8 7 Points All./Gm 25.6 19
69.4 5 Plays/Gm 60.4 28
61.6 12 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.6 13
36.0% 23 Rush% 32.5% 29
64.0% 10 Pass% 67.6% 4
32.1% 2 Opp. Rush % 43.8% 28
67.9% 31 Opp. Pass % 56.2% 5

 

  • These two teams have gone over the game total in five consecutive meetings, averaging a combined 54.6 points per game over that span.
  • The Giants have trailed for 73.2 percent of their offensive snaps, the highest rate in the league. The Eagles rank 30th (68.9 percent).
  • Opponents have scored on 50 percent (25-of-50) of their possessions against the Giants, the second-highest rate in the league ahead of only Atlanta (51 percent).
  • The Eagles have scored on just 33.3 percent (19-of-57) of their possessions, 25th in the league. They scored on 42.8 percent of their possessions in 2017, which ranked 7th in the league.
  • Zach Ertz is the first tight end to have double-digit targets in each of the first five games of a season.
  • Opposing wide receivers have accounted for 65.7 percent of the fantasy points scored against the Eagles, the highest rate in the league.
  • Saquon Barkley joins Kareem Hunt and Adrian Peterson as the only players to have 100-yards from scrimmage in each of first five career games played.

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Zach Ertz: The Giants have not been the punching bag for every tight end in the league this season, allowing a league-low 15 receptions to the position through five weeks, but the best tight end they have faced on the season is Ben Watson. Ertz is a different animal and the feature receiving target for his team, leading the position in targets (58), catches (41) and yards (437) on the season.
  • Odell Beckham: He’s third in the NFL in target volume and coming off his best game of the season, catching four passes that gained 17 or more yards. He now runs into the premier matchup for opposing wide receiver play as the Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points (23.2) per game to opposing lead wideouts to begin the season.
  • Saquon Barkley: Rushing yardage should be thin here as the Eagles are allowing just 5.4 rushing points per game to opposing backfields (second), but Barkley should still stack yardage out of the backfield as he’s averaging 14.1 receiving points per game.
  • Sterling Shepard: We’re tentatively approaching things with the idea that Evan Engram won’t return to the lineup on a short week and he's only practicing in a limited fashion to begin the week. If that holds true and Engram is out once again, Shepard has 22.4 percent of the team targets over the past three weeks and has scored a touchdown in all four meetings versus the Eagles in his career, including catching 18-of-26 targets for 272 yards and two scores against this secondary a year ago.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Carson Wentz: He’s progressed each week for fantasy, finishing as the QB22, QB15 and QB8 over his three games since his return, but the Giants have been surprisingly strong out of the gates against quarterbacks this season, allowing just one to finish higher than QB16 despite facing Cam Newton and Drew Brees the past two weeks.
  • Wendell Smallwood/Corey Clement: Both are options with Jay Ajayi now out for the season. I would give the immediate edge to Smallwood heads up since he’s already been the RB10, RB34 and RB14 over the past three games and Clement is coming off of a quad injury. Clement should also have FLEX appeal if he’s good to go as the Giants are 28th in receiving points allowed to backfields and opposing backs have accounted for 80 percent of the touchdowns versus the Giants, the highest rate in the league.
  • Eli Manning: He’s been strong in two of the past three games and has had a lot of recent success in this matchup. Manning has been a top-12 scoring quarterback in three of the four meetings with the Philadelphia defense under Jim Schwartz with three or more passing touchdowns in three of those games.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Alshon Jeffery: The targets will still be there to keep him as a WR3 option as he’s drawn 17 targets since returning to the lineup. But he managed just eight total catches versus the Giants a year ago in two games while Janoris Jenkins has found his stride after a slow start, pushing DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas and Devin Funchess all outside of the top-30 scorers in each of the past three weeks.
  • Nelson Agholor: He just hasn’t found any production this season, posting 45 yards or less in four of five games. He totaled just 69 yards in two games versus the Giants a year ago and New York has been strong to start, allowing just one opposing wideout to catch more than five passes in a game to begin the season.

 

Buccaneers @ Falcons

 

Tampa BayRank@AtlantaRank
3.5   Spread -3.5  
27.0   Implied Total 30.5  
28.0 6 Points/Gm 26.6 10
34.8 32 Points All./Gm 32.6 31
62.2 22 Plays/Gm 64.2 17
63.8 17 Opp. Plays/Gm 66.2 22
36.6% 21 Rush% 35.8% 25
63.5% 12 Pass% 64.2% 8
35.3% 5 Opp. Rush % 37.5% 9
64.7% 28 Opp. Pass % 62.5% 24

 

  • These teams have averaged 55.2 combined points over their past five meetings in Atlanta.
  • The Buccaneers are allowing the most fantasy points to skill players (101.5) per game while Atlanta ranks 30th (92.9 points).
  • The Falcons are the first team to allow 37 or more points in three straight games since the Raiders in 2012.
  • 39.2 percent of the drives against the Falcons have resulted in a touchdown, the highest rate in the league.
  • Opposing teams have converted a league-high 55.4 percent of their third downs versus the Falcons and their average yardage needed on third downs is a league-low 5.9 yards.
  • The Tampa Bay backfield is averaging 67.3 yards from scrimmage per game, the fewest in the league. The next lowest backfield (Arizona) is averaging 91.6 yards per game.
  • In 12 career games versus the Buccaneers, Julio Jones averaged 6.9 receptions for 117.8 yards with 10 touchdown receptions. He's gone over 100-yards in seven of those games and been a top-5 fantasy scorer in six of those games.
  • In the six games in which he has faced Tampa Bay at home in his career, Jones has caught 46-of-60 targets for 813 yards (135.5 YPG) and six touchdowns.

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Julio Jones: He’s now gone 62-straight regular season receptions without a touchdown, but this is a spot that has regularly awakened his touchdown slumber. Tampa Bay has allowed every lead wide receiver to reach the end zone this season.
  • Matt Ryan: He has averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game in those six games mentioned above with Jones at home against the Bucs. Tampa Bay is dead last in just about any category you can name versus the pass, but the big ones are them ranking 32nd in yards per attempt (9.4), yards per game (370.0) and touchdown rate (8.3 percent) allowed to start the year.
  • Mike Evans: He has six or more catches in four straight games for the first time in his career and has a great track record tormenting Atlanta, averaging 18.9 points per game against them with a touchdown in five of those games.
  • Jameis Winston: His first start comes in a dream spot. He has finished as a top-12 scorer in four of five career games against the Falcons, passing for three or more touchdowns in each of their past three meetings while Atlanta is hemorrhaging points to passers, allowing the QB7, QB1, QB9 and QB5 over their past four games. 
  • Tevin Coleman: He's had 20, 17 and 17 touches in the three games that Devonta Freeman has missed, but has had only one one week in which he was higher than an RB3. That should change here as Tampa Bay ranks 22nd in yards from scrimmage (151.0 yards) and 28th in points (31.3) per game allowed to backfields.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Calvin Ridley: He is always going to go as his touchdown production goes as he has six or fewer targets in every game but one on the year, but he stays in play as an upside WR3 option in these types of matchups, coming along for the ride in a game in which Ryan should thrive.
  • Mohamed Sanu: He’s been a top-30 scorer in each of the past three weeks with seven or more targets in each of those outings while the Bucs secondary is giving to all pass catchers.
  • DeSean Jackson: He’s gone over 100-yards in three of the first four games of the season, while Atlanta has allowed multiple top-30 wideouts in each of the past two weeks.
  • Chris Godwin: He’s a boom-or-bust touchdown-dependent WR3 option, but in a game that should feature a plethora of scoring opportunities, this are the games to chase that scoring upside as he has five targets inside of the 10-yard line this season while the rest of the team has combined for five themselves.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Tampa Bay RBs: What will crack first, the movable force that is the Atlanta defense defending the running back position versus the stationary object that is the Tampa Bay backfield? Atlanta has allowed a 20-point running back in every game this season. Ronald Jones played 20 snaps in his Week 4 debut with 11 touches but managed 28 total yards on those touches. While those touches and snaps came in a blowout loss, we still have no idea who is going to get goal line touches in this backfield between he and Peyton Barber, leaving each as nothing but dart throws based solely on the matchup only to prop up their use in lineups.

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

 

  • Austin Hooper: He’s a streaming option once again and is coming off a career-high 12 targets and nine receptions a week ago. Tampa Bay is the only team to allow a top-12 scoring tight end in every game this season and are allowing a league-high 103.8 receiving yards per game to the position.
  •  Ito Smith: He played 30 snaps in Week 4 when Freeman last missed and has a rushing touchdown in each of the past two weeks. He should find his way to 10-12 touches in a potential shooutout.
  • Cameron BrateO.J. Howard: Howard is dealing with a sprained MCL and was expected to miss a few weeks, but was a full particapnt in practice on Friday. He still may be limited on Sunday, which keeps Brate as an option, although muddles the field here. Brate has scored in each of the past two games while he and Winston have always had a touchdown connection as Brate ranks fifth at the position in touchdowns since 2015. Winston targeted Brate 14.3 percent of the time a year ago while Ryan Fitzpatrick targeted Brate just 9.3 percent of the time.
 

Chargers @ Browns

 

LA ChargersRank@ClevelandRank
-1   Spread 1  
22.5   Implied Total 21.5  
27.4 8 Points/Gm 22.8 20
26.0 22 Points All./Gm 22.6 12
61.4 23 Plays/Gm 73.8 2
59.0 4 Opp. Plays/Gm 75.6 32
41.0% 14 Rush% 42.6% 12
59.0% 19 Pass% 57.5% 21
40.0% 19 Opp. Rush % 37.6% 11
60.0% 14 Opp. Pass % 62.4% 22

 

  • The Browns lead the NFL with 15 takeaways through five weeks. That's more takeaways than they've had in each of the past two seasons (13 each).
  • The Browns are the only team in the league without an offensive touchdown in the first quarter this season and are just one of two teams (Kansas City) that have not allowed a first quarter touchdown on defense this season.
  • Per Pro Football Focus, Jarvis Landry has caught 18-of-34 targets (52.9 percent) and is averaging 1.46 yards per route run from the slot this season. He has caught 11-of-15 targets (73.3 percent) with 2.45 yards per route run on the perimeter.
  • David Njoku has the most targets on the season (34) that has yet to receive a target in the red zone.
  • 41.5 percent of Carlos Hyde's fantasy points have been scored inside of the 5-yard line this season, trailing only LeGarrette Blount (43.4 percent) for the highest rate in the league among running backs.
  • The Chargers backfields in averaging 201.2 yards from scrimmage per game, the most in the league.
  • Melvin Gordon (28.7 percent) and Austin Ekeler (19.8 percent) have combined for 48.5 percent of the Chargers offensive yardage, the highest share for a backfield combo in the league.

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Melvin Gordon: He’s fourth among running backs in yards from scrimmage (595) and has scored a touchdown in four straight games.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Keenan Allen: He has yet to provide that spike week since Week 1 but is still receiving nine targets per game while the Browns still have allowed the second-most points to lead wideouts on the season despite holding John Brown to 58 yards a week ago.
  • Austin Ekeler: He’s been a top-24 scorer in four of five games this season and leads all running backs with more than 15 touches on the season in yards per touch (8.5 yards).
  • Jarvis Landry: He’s managed 103 yards over the two starts with Mayfield despite the Browns running so many extra plays, but he still averages 29.8 percent of the Cleveland targets per game with double-digit targets in four of five games played.
  • David Njoku: The scoring opportunities have yet to come and he’s left some meat on the bone with drops, but he’s now totaled 18 targets over the past two weeks with double-digit fantasy points at a depressed position, putting him in the TE1 mix.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Carlos Hyde: He’s still averaging 21.2 touches per week, so you take that volume and play for the scoring opportunities, but we caught a glimpse of his floor when fails to score a touchdown a week ago as he’s managed just six receptions all season. The Chargers rank eighth in rushing points allowed (9.8) per game to backfields on the season.
  • Philip Rivers: Heading east for an early start against a defense that has allowed just one top-12 scoring week on the season, Cleveland ranks third in passing points allowed per attempt on the season. He's not someone you have to stream for, but that is enough to have QB2 expectations for Rivers this week.
  • Baker Mayfield: The Chargers are 28th in yards per pass attempt (8.6) allowed on the season, but it’s hard to push Mayfield up as a higher-end QB2 this week when he’s been the QB15 and QB22 in his two starts while having the most possessions (33) in the NFL over that span.
  • Mike Williams: He has seven total targets over the past two weeks, leaving him as a touchdown dependent wideout in a game where his quarterback could be under his seasonal production to this point.
  • Duke Johnson: He played a season-high 51.2 percent of the snaps last week, but still managed just six touches. He’s just not as reliable for volume as other backs of his archetype until he’s more involved in the offense.

 

Colts @ Jets

 

IndianapolisRank@NY JetsRank
2.5   Spread -2.5  
21.3   Implied Total 23.8  
23.6 15 Points/Gm 24.6 14
27.6 27 Points All./Gm 21.0 8
71.4 3 Plays/Gm 59.4 29
69.8 27 Opp. Plays/Gm 69.0 26
28.3% 32 Rush% 46.1% 5
71.7% 1 Pass% 53.9% 28
38.7% 16 Opp. Rush % 37.7% 12
61.3% 17 Opp. Pass % 62.3% 21

 

  • The 323 rushing yards by the Jets last week were the second-most they've ever had in a game (333 yards in Week 5 of 1972).
  • Isaiah Crowell's 219 rushing yards were the most in Jets history, surpassing Thomas Jones' 210 rushing yards in 2009.
  • Wide receivers have been targeted just 49.2 percent of the time against the Colts, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Wide receivers have been targeted 67.0 percent of the time against the Jets, the highest rate in the league.
  • The Colts have run on 23.2 percent of their plays the past three weeks, the lowest rate in the league over that span.
  • Andrew Luck is just the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 59 times or more in back-to-back games.

 

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Andrew Luck: His shoulder shouldn’t be a concern anymore for fantasy purposes as the Colts are throwing the ball more than anyone in the league. Volume isn’t everything for the position, but this type of volume is tangible as Luck has been a top-5 option in each of the past two weeks. As a road dog, his high passing volume should continue.
  • Eric Ebron: He’s already matched his career-high with five touchdowns on the season and is averaging a gaudy 12 targets per game over the past three weeks with Jack Doyle sidelined.  Ebron has been a top-12 scorer in four of five games this season and although the Jets are tied for the league-low in catches allowed to tight ends, they have not faced a single top-12 fantasy tight end on the season.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Bilal Powell: He has out-touched Crowell on the season (69-63) and once again last week (20-16) but has now failed to catch a pass in two of his past three games, which he needs for higher fantasy output since Crowell has a lock on the scoring opportunities. If Crowell does miss the game, then Powell slides into being a strong RB2 option as opposing backfields have averaged 32 touches for 154.3 total yards versus the Colts over the past three weeks.
  • Nyheim Hines: He’s had more touches than the previous week in three consecutive games and has set new highs in yards from scrimmage in each of the past two weeks. The Jets rank 24th in receptions (6.8) allowed to opposing backfields.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Sam Darnold: He’s thrown for 200-yards just once on the season and asking him to throw three touchdowns again on just 10 completed passes is a stretch.
  • Quincy Enunwa: He ran just 31.6 percent of his routes from the slot last week after running 69 percent of his routes from the slot through four games with the Jets running at will and not playing three wideouts on the field. That could happen here once again, but even if the Jets do throw more, Enunwa has been a WR4 or lower in three straight games.
  • Robby Anderson: He’s going to have moments like last week, but they are going to be too hard to pin down in advance as he still has three or fewer receptions in every game this season and the Colts are second in the league in rate of completed passes to gain 20 or more yards.
  • Isaiah Crowell: He failed to practice all week and is a pure game-time deciscion for Sunday. You can slide him as a FLEX play if he's active, but his workload is a concern considering he has already been out-touched by Powell to date.

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

 

  • Chester Rogers/Ryan Grant: The Colts are passing so much, that we can dabble on their ancillary pieces if we need to against a Jets team that faces 26.8 targets (30th) to opposing wideouts per week. Both Rogers and Grant were WR3 fantasy options a week ago with Rogers receiving a career-high 11 targets and Grant having at least seven targets in three of five games on the season.
 

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Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.
Email :Rich Hribar



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