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Rich Hribar

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The NFL Week 10 Worksheet

Wednesday, November 7, 2018


 

Jaguars @ Colts

 

JacksonvilleRank@IndianapolisRank
3   Spread -3  
22.0   Implied Total 25.0  
16.8 30 Points/Gm 28.9 6
21.2 8 Points All./Gm 26.6 25
65.1 10 Plays/Gm 69.2 3
62.2 12 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.9 23
34.4% 29 Rush% 36.3% 23
65.6% 4 Pass% 63.7% 10
46.8% 29 Opp. Rush % 40.9% 21
53.2% 4 Opp. Pass % 59.2% 12

 

  • The Colts (85.2 percent) and Jaguars (84.6 percent) are the two teams with the highest rate of passing touchdowns in the league. League average is 67.8 percent of offensive touchdowns via passing.
  • 40.2 percent of the Indianapolis possessions reach the red zone, fourth in the league behind the Rams (47.3 percent), Chiefs (46.6 percent) and Saints (42.9 percent).
  • Colts running backs average 2.2 yards before contact on their rushing attempts, the most in the league.
  • Andrew Luck hasn't been sacked in 156 consecutive dropbacks, the longest streak of his career.
  • The Jaguars have been outscored by an average of 14.7 points per game on the road this season, ahead of only Buffalo (16.8) on the season.
  • The Jaguars are 30th in points per play offensively (.257) ahead of only Arizona (.255) and Buffalo (.171). They ranked eighth in 2017 (.388).
  • The Jaguars have had just two drives start on the opposition's side of the field, tied with Tampa Bay for the fewest in the league. Through eight games last season, they had 12 such possessions, tied for fourth in the league.
  • The Colts are allowing opposing passers to complete 72.4 percent of their passes (31st) but rank first in the league in allowing gains of 20 or more yards on completed passes (11.1 percent).
  • Blake Bortles has completed 11-of-28 (39.3 percent) passes in the red zone this season, better than only Josh Allen (30 percent) on the season. League average is 55.9 percent.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Andrew Luck: For all the regression the Jaguars defense has had compared to a year ago, they are still very good, ranking second in the league in yards per pass attempt (6.7 Y/A). But they just have been beatable of late, allowing 283 yards and three touchdowns to Carson Wentz in their last game, a QB2 game to Dak Prescott in Week 6 and 313 yards to Patrick Mahomes in Week 5. Luck has been so hot, finishing as a top-10 scorer in five straight games and is at home, giving him back-end QB1 viability.
  • Marlon Mack: We’re sure to have another week where he doesn’t practice fully and then he plays. And when he’s played, he’s ripped up the field. Over his past three games, Mack has carried 56 times for 347 yards (6.2 YPC) with four total touchdowns. This matchup is not nearly as strong as the previous two he’s had as the Jaguars are allowing just 3.9 YPC to opposing backs (ninth), but Mack’s upside in a good offense keep him squarely on the RB2 board at home as a favorite.
  • Jack Doyle: He returned to the lineup as reclaimed his role as the all-purpose tight end in this offense right away. In the three games that Doyle has now been active, he’s out-snapped Ebron 193-71 and run 101 pass routes to 44 for Ebron.
  • Blake Bortles:  As poor of a season he’s had in reality, for fantasy he’s been a QB1 in three of his past five games. The Colts allow a ton of easy completions that allow production to mount as they’re 23rd in passing yardage allowed to quarterbacks (275.6 yards per game). Over their previous four games, Indianapolis has allowed a QB3 performance to Derek Carr and the highest-scoring game of the season by Sam Darnold (18 points) to go along with 27.5 points to Tom Brady surrounding a game against the Bills.
  • Dede Westbrook: The Jaguars wideouts are always a tough assignment to predict but given Westbrook’s high slot use (93 percent of his routes) while leading the team in third-down targets, catches and yards, he is the option that stands out against a Colts defense that lives in zone coverage and will allow a bunch of underneath completions. The Colts don’t give up plays, which makes options such as Donte Moncrief and D.J. Chark only deeper plays.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • T.Y. Hilton: He has just five catches for 59 yards over his past two games and the Jaguars are still not a team we target heavily with boundary receiver play, but Hilton has run 45 percent of his routes from the slot over his two games since returning. The Jaguars have allowed just five touchdowns to opposing receivers this season, but four of those have come from the slot. I don’t believe you can count on Hilton for ceiling output or even as a stable WR2 which is why he’s here, but still does carry some scoring upside in a tough assignment.
  • Leonard Fournette: Not many of us with Fournette will be in a position to bench him and wait and see what his usage will be like, but he has to be treated as an RB2. He’s yet to play a complete game all season, is a road dog and the Jaguars have Carlos Hyde on board to ease him back into a full workload. The matchup is strong as the Colts are 23rd in rushing yardage allowed per game (94.9) to backfields, but you may be looking at an abbreviated workload and hoping for a touchdown in Fournette’s first game back. His return also makes Hyde and T.J. Yeldon bottom-rung fantasy options outside of chasing negative game script with Yeldon. if that negative script does occur, the Colts are 31st in receptions allowed to backfields (7.5 per game), but Yeldon's snap totals remain a guessing game heading into this week.

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

 

  • Eric Ebron: Even with Doyle returning, Ebron still holds some upside, he’s just much more volatile. Some of his depressed usage in Week 8 likely had to do with getting him some rest prior to the bye as he was dealing with multiple ailments over the front half of the season. Even though Doyle has trumped Ebron’s usage when both are active, Ebron has still scored a touchdown in all of three of those games as well. Colts tight ends have been targeted 21 times in the red zone, the most in the league.

 

Lions @ Bears

 

DetroitRank@ChicagoRank
6.5   Spread -6.5  
19.3   Implied Total 25.8  
22.5 20 Points/Gm 29.4 5
26.2 23 Points All./Gm 19.1 4
63.0 18 Plays/Gm 63.5 17
58.5 2 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.1 17
36.9% 22 Rush% 45.5% 5
63.1% 11 Pass% 54.5% 28
47.4% 30 Opp. Rush % 36.8% 10
52.6% 3 Opp. Pass % 63.2% 23

 

  • Just 15.8 percent (15-of-95) of the opposition's possessions have ended inside of the red zone versus the Bears, the lowest rate in the league. League average outside of the, is 28.6 percent.
  • Opposing teams are running just 5.6 red zone plays per game against the Bears, the fewest in the league.
  • The Bears have yet to allow a rushing touchdown to a running back on 160 carries.
  • The Bears have forced a turnover on 22.1 percent of opponent's possessions, the highest rate in the league.
  • The Lions have allowed a first down on 42.5 percent of their pass attempts faced (31st) while the Bears have allowed just 30.5 percent, the second-lowest rate in the league.
  • Detroit has allowed opposing passers to complete 77.1 percent of their passes since their Week 6 bye, the highest rate in the league after allowing 63.8 percent to be completed through five weeks (12th).
  • Jordan Howard has 30.1 percent of the Chicago offensive opportunities when the Bears or tied or leading as opposed to 24.5 percent when trailing.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Jordan Howard: He’s scored in four of his past five games and in three straight but has still managed to average just 65.2 total yards per game over that stretch as he needs to reach the end zone to carry his RB2 upside. However, he finds himself in another great spot to stack volume and scoring opportunities as a home favorite against a Lions defense allowing a league-high 134.9 yards rushing per game to backfields.
  • Marvin Jones: He has 18 targets over the past two weeks and received 22.2 percent of the team looks with Golden Tate absent on his way to an WR22 finish in dire circumstances for this offense. There may inevitably be some tradeoff between he and Golladay, but Jones is a WR2 option.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Mitchell Trubisky: He’s putting us in a tough spot here for streaming as the matchup isn’t poor from an efficiency stance, but Detroit faces the fewest pass attempts per game (27.8) and the Bears have really kept their passing game low-volume in wins. In their five wins this season, the Trubisky has thrown for 220 yards or fewer in four of those games and has thrown just 29 and 20 passes over the past two weeks in tightly controlled game script. This game lines up to be the same, meaning he will need to live on touchdown efficiency and will need his rushing production to bounce back after just six yards on the ground a week ago.
  • Matthew Stafford: He’s been a QB1 just once on the season and is averaging his lowest yardage per game (263.9) since the 2010 season. The Lions offense looked dysfunctional on the road last week in their first game without Golden Tate and they go on the road to face another strong defense here.
  • Tarik Cohen:  He has just six and seven touches over the past two weeks in Bears wins with just five total targets in the passing game. He now has eight or fewer touches in four of the five wins this season. He’s still in play as a FLEX option and offers big-play ability but nailing the game script is going to be hard week-to-week and this week the probability points towards him having to make the most of single-digit touches once again.  There are just more bettable passing-only backs on the board this week.
  • Trey Burton: Consistent usage is still a problem as he’s had five or fewer targets in 6-of-8 games this season and has topped four receptions in a game just once. He does have five touchdowns, which keeps him in play at a depressed tight end position, but the Lions also have allowed just one tight end to have more than four catches in a game this season.
  • Bears WRs: The Lions allow a league-low 9.5 receptions per game to opposing wideouts since everyone just runs down their throat all game. The Bears are set up to be a sum of all parts passing attack this week, with no clear option to force into lineups outside of Burton because he plays such a weak position.
  • Kenny Golladay: There was absolutely no tangible target bump for Golladay last week as he now has just seven total targets over his past three games. Until we see usage begin to rise, we can’t chase him in lineups, especially in a tougher matchup against the Chicago defense.
  • Kerryon Johnson: He’s had 20 carries for 59 yards over the past two weeks and is facing the league’s toughest fantasy run defense on the season for opposing backfield play. He did still see five targets with Riddick returning to the lineup, but this is not a spot where we can count on yardage alone to provide a solid RB2 week.

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

 

  • Theo Riddick: He lined up in the slot as a direct replacement for Golden Tate on 13 routes last week and caught 7-of-8 targets. The hang-up with Riddick is he a reception only option as he is averaging a lowly 5.8 yards per catch on the season.

 

Saints @ Bengals

 

New OrleansRank@CincinnatiRank
-4   Spread 4  
29.0   Implied Total 25.0  
34.9 2 Points/Gm 27.6 10
27.2 27 Points All./Gm 29.6 30
65.0 11 Plays/Gm 60.1 27
61.4 7 Opp. Plays/Gm 71.2 31
44.0% 9 Rush% 35.1% 26
56.0% 24 Pass% 64.9% 7
36.7% 9 Opp. Rush % 36.5% 8
63.3% 24 Opp. Pass % 63.5% 25

 

  • The Bengals are allowing the second-most non-passing fantasy points per game (93.4) outside of Tampa Bay. New Orleans ranks third in the league in that category on offense (92 points per game).
  • The Saints have punted on just 24.7 percent of their possessions, the lowest rate in the league. Opposing teams have punted just 25.6 percent of their drives versus the Bengals, the lowest rate in the league.
  • 23.1 percent of the offensive plays run by the Saints have come from inside of the red zone, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of them is 13.1 percent.
  • 46.7 percent of Drew Brees' fantasy output has come from inside of the red zone, the highest rate for any quarterback in the league.
  • Alvin Kamara has out-touched Mark Ingram 62-40 since the Saints Week 5 bye. He has out-touched him 42-28 in the opening three quarters of those games while out-touching him 15-4 in the red zone.
  • Brees has thrown for 347.8 yards per game at home this season as opposed to 236.3 per game on the road, the largest gap for all quarterbacks in home and away yardage.
  • Despite that, the Saints have scored on 64.9 percent of their possessions on the road this season, the highest rate in the league.
  • Andy Dalton has been a top-12 quarterback in just 4-of-11 career games without A.J. Green active, throwing 11 touchdowns to 10 interceptions over those games with an average scoring week of QB17.

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Alvin Kamara: 87.9 percent of the rushing attempts against the Bengals have gained positive yardage, the highest rate in the league while Kamara leads the league in red zone targets (20) and receptions (15) and ranks second in red zone rushing attempts (31) to Todd Gurley (50).
  • Drew Brees: We have a spot with Brees on the road and outdoors, but the Bengals have just been too awful defensively to ignore. The Bengals rank 29th in passing points allowed per game (19.7) and the only games in which they allowed fewer than 319 yards passing to quarterbacks where to Ryan Tannehill and Cam Newton (who still was the QB3 that week). In four of their past five games, the Bengals have allowed 470, 358, 369 and 419 passing yards outside of that game versus Tannehill.
  • Michael Thomas: He’s caught an insane 70-of-79 targets this season and already has four games with double-digit receptions on the season. The Saints may be able to take their foot off the gas at some point here and run the ball to victory like we’ve seen in the past, but the Bengals have allowed a WR1 scoring week to the opposition’s lead receiver in four of their past five games.
  • Tyler Boyd: With A.J. Green’s injury, Boyd becomes the lead receiver in this offense. When Green last left a game in Week 3, Boyd had six catches for 132 yards and a touchdown. Green leaves 9.5 targets per game on the table and we can’t count on anyone behind Boyd to use that volume effectively. Boyd also has the benefit of playing inside, where the Saints have been touched up by Cooper Kupp (5-89-1) and Adam Thielen (7-103-1) over the past two weeks.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Joe Mixon: His 20.7 touches per game rank fifth at the position, but his lack of receiving usage and matchup here are slight downgrades. Mixon has just 13 catches for 58 yards over the past four games after posting 54 yards through the air in Week 1 and now Giovani Bernard is slated to return. The Saints also allow just 95 total yards per game to opposing backfields, which is second in the league and just held Todd Gurley to 79 yards from scrimmage.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Andy Dalton: He’s only been a QB1 in 3-of-8 games so far and now will be without A.J. Green, which has led to a downturn in his fantasy production in the past.
  • Mark Ingram: He’s averaged 14.5 touches for 60.8 yards per game since returning. There’s room here for him to get volume if the Saints control script, but he’s an option that now has failed to reach 100 yards from scrimmage in eight consecutive games played and is working way behind Kamara in the red zone. 
  • C.J. Uzomah: He’s dealing with a shoulder injury and has two or fewer catches in three of the four games since taking over as the primary tight end in the offense.

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

 

  • Tre’Quan Smith:  We typically want to target his role when the Saints are at home in a shootout environment, but the Bengals leave some allure here outside of the past two road games he played against the Vikings and Ravens. Cincinnati has allowed five receptions of 40-plus yards to wideouts over their past three games.
  • John Ross: Green’s targets have to go somewhere other than to Boyd and Ross will be the next receiver on the field as much as him. He’s far from a reliable option, but the matchup could be worse to take a swing on Ross hitting a splash play as the Saints rank dead last in yards per target to opposing receivers (10.6 yards) and rank 28th in touchdown rate (8.3 percent) allowed per target to the position.
  • Ben Watson: He keeps trading TE1 games with unusable weeks, but this week he may be able to string a pair of usable weeks together against a Bengals defense allowing 6.6 receptions per game (T-31st) to opposing tight ends.

 

Patriots @ Titans

 

New EnglandRank@TennesseeRank
-7   Spread 7  
27.5   Implied Total 20.5  
30.0 4 Points/Gm 16.8 29
22.4 11 Points All./Gm 17.6 1
66.9 8 Plays/Gm 60.0 28
66.4 28 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.0 5
42.9% 13 Rush% 47.5% 2
57.1% 20 Pass% 52.5% 31
36.1% 7 Opp. Rush % 42.8% 23
63.9% 26 Opp. Pass % 57.2% 10

 

  • New England averages 1.8 offensive touchdowns per game on the road (25th) as opposed to 4.2 per game at home (second).
  • Tennessee is allowing 1.8 offensive touchdowns per game, the fewest in the league.
  • Opposing wide receivers have accounted for 61.2 percent of the fantasy points scored by skill players against the Titans, which trails only the Saints (63.9 percent).
  • Receivers have accounted for a league-high 84.6 percent of the touchdowns scored against the Titans.
  • Over their past two games, Dion Lewis has out-snapped Derrick Henry 104-38, out-touched him 42-22 and out-gained him 277-97.
  • 23.9 percent of the pass attempts against the Patriots are on throws 15-yards or further downfield, the highest rate a defense has faced this season.
  • The Patriots are holding passers to a 35.2 percent (31-of-88) completion rate on those throws, the second-best rate in the league (Dallas at 33.3 percent).

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Tom Brady: He has been in the back-half of scoring in each of the past two games, but he’s still thrown for 294 and 324 yards those weeks. The Patriots just have four rushing touchdowns to one passing score in those games. The Titans have only allowed 11 passing touchdowns on the season, but 11-of-13 touchdowns they’ve allowed have been passing while they have allowed 20 or more points to all three of the good quarterbacks they have faced on the season in Philip Rivers (20.1), Carson Wentz (20.7) and Deshaun Watson (22.8).
  • Josh Gordon: He’s gone up and down over the past month with two 100-yard games surrounding games of 42 yards each, but everything lines up nicely for him here. He’s already established himself as the vertical threat in this offense while Tennessee has been the most vulnerable to wide receiver play when they give up offensive production. Gordon will also draw Malcolm Butler for the majority of the game. Butler has allowed a league-high 618 receiving yards and a league-high seven touchdowns in his coverage this season.
  • Julian Edelman: He’s been a WR1 in each of the past two weeks without the aid of a touchdown in either. The Patriots really attacked Logan Ryan in this matchup a year ago in the playoffs when Danny Amendola caught 11-of-13 targets for 112 yards.
  • James White: He’s been a top-7 scorer in five of the past six games and leads the position in targets (81), catches (61) and receiving touchdowns (six). With Michel injured, he has 19, 18 and 18 touches over the past three weeks. Michel's return compromises his touch-ceiling, but White is still the best bet to lead this backfield in touches in Week 10.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Dion Lewis: He’s had 155 and 122 yards from scrimmage the past two games as the Titans are hopefully realizing that he is arguably their best offensive player. The Patriots rank 28th in receiving points allowed per game to backs (14.3) and have allowed five or more receptions to an individual back in four of their past five games.
  • Marcus Mariota: He appears to be turning the corner slowly. Over his past two games, Mariota has completed 73.7 percent of his passes for 7.8 yards per attempt after completing 63.5 percent of his passes for 6.7 yards per attempt prior. He’s already averaging 4.8 rushing points per game, so any efficiency passing will help him become a reliable QB2 option once again, we just need this sample to extend itself. The Patriots have allowed a QB1 in four of their past five games with the lone exception being Derek Anderson.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Rob Gronkowski: With the Patriots headed on bye next week, I’m approaching things as if they will just hold Gronk out for another game this early in the week and then will cycle back as more information comes out during the week.
  • Corey Davis: His 6-56 line last week was his best game since Week 4. He did have five catches for 63 yards and two touchdowns against New England last year, but unfortunately both of those touchdowns came in the coverage of Butler, who is now his teammate. Surely to get shadowed by Stephon Gilmore this week, it’s hard to expect a repeat performance.
  • Derrick Henry: He has scored in each of the past two games, but he’s still had just 97 total yards in those games and has been smashed by Lewis in usage, the latter coming in a game that featured positive script throughout. The Patriots are far more giving to backs in the passing game, ranking 10th in rushing points allowed per game (10.1) to the position.
  • Sony Michel: Things are trending early in the week towards him returning to the lineup this week, but with the Patriots having a bye the following week, I’d assume they are going to be cautious with his use on the field.  With an unknown snap/touch count, you’re leaning on a touchdown. If he is active, then the dream of acting on Cordarrelle Patterson and his new RB eligibility meets an unfortunate end.

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Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.
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