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Rich Hribar

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Playing Props Divisional Round

Friday, January 11, 2019


The NFL postseason is one of the heaviest times of the year to see increased betting action since we have so much focus on each individual game. One of the most popular aspects of playoff football betting is individual player props. While you can’t strike it rich on player prop bets because the majority of books have restricted limits on player props, they do offer an edge since the books since the lines are being set on the basics of a player, his average stats, and the average stats of the defense he is facing. Player props were my sour note while betting last week, going 4-5 in picks. I’m still very tilted about Ezekiel Elliott not catching a pass in the second half a week ago.

 

*All Player Props are taken from the FanDuel Sportsbook

 

Marlon Mack Over 85.5 Receiving + Rushing Yards

 

Mack has been a tear, going over 118 yards from scrimmage in three of his past four games as he’s put clamps on owning the Indianapolis backfield. Mack has averaged 42.1 percent of the team touches over the past four games after averaging 30.4 percent per game over his first nine games played of the season.  This week, he faces a Kansas City defense that allowed 169.4 yards from scrimmage to opposing backfields this season (30th), 113.5 of which were rushing yards per game (28th).  The opposition’s lead back has hit his yards from scrimmage total in 11 games this season against the Chiefs and in nine of the past 10 games.

 

Jared Goff Under 278.5 Passing Yards

 

Goff has struggled to end the season, averaging just 228.2 yards passing per game over the final five weeks of the regular season. He threw for 216 yards or fewer in four of those five games. The biggest culprit has been his lack of hitting the deep ball. Over that span, Goff completed just 8-of-31 (25.8 percent) pass attempts 15-plus yards downfield after completing 54.5 percent (42-of-77) of those passes prior. Goff did throw for 342.1 yards per game at home this season, but those numbers stemmed from playing in shootouts. The Cowboys are seven point underdogs, which comes into play with forcing the Rams to have to throw. In their six losses this season, Dallas allowed just 223 passing yards per game with just two passers to hit the 200-yard mark. With Goff’s recent struggles, Dallas slowing the game down and the Rams favored to control the game script, I’m going under this large total.

 

Amari Cooper Under 65.5 Receiving Yards

 

By now we’re well aware of the wonky passing splits the Dallas offense has had on the road this season and we’ve seen that roll into Cooper’s up and down yardage totals. In four games away from Dallas, Cooper averaged 43.5 yards per game, posting yardage totals of 36, 32 and 31 yards over his final three on the road. He also has a rough track record against both Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, who he faced frequently while with the Raiders. Amari Cooper has caught 1-of-7 targets for eight yards and no touchdowns in Talib's coverage. In six career games versus Peters, Cooper has caught 6-of-12 targets for 77 yards and no touchdowns in Peters' coverage. In Week 1 while with the Raiders, Cooper was target just once in the coverage of either corner. The Rams have allowed 7.2 yards per target, 126 yards per game with just two touchdowns to opposing wide receivers since Talib returned in Week 13.

 

Mike Williams Under 44.5 Receiving Yards

 

Williams is playing more and more and last week was the first game in which he ran as many pass routes as Tyrell Williams in a game in which both played in full. Williams has hit this number in four of his past six games but has averaged only 47.8 yards per game over that span. This is a week to expect him to go under that average as he squares off against Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore allowed just 46.7 percent of targets in his coverage to be completed, which ranked second in the league. Tack on that Hunter Henry should grab a few targets in his return and I’d expect Williams to disappoint.

 

Drew Brees Over 290.5 Passing Yards

 

Brees has always been at his best at home and this season was no different. At home, Brees averaged 321.6 passing yards per game as opposed to 217.6 per game on the road. At home, he hit this total in 5-of-7 games, including a 364-yard, passing game against the Eagles in Week 11. Brees has also averaged 305.8 passing yards per game in his five postseason starts in New Orleans. The Eagles ranked 30th in passing yardage allowed per game (307.9 yards) during the regular season and they allowed the most passing yards (303) to a quarterback in the opening week of the playoffs to Mitchell Trubisky.

 

Darren Sproles Under 47.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

 

I bet the over on Sproles’ yards from scrimmage prop last week and watched him come four yards shy of getting there. This week, they raised his line to a total that he’s hit in just one of his seven games played this season. Sproles has hit 40 yards from scrimmage just twice. His former team allows just 96.7 total yards per game to opposing backfields, which was second in the league.



Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.
Email :Rich Hribar



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