AGING WELL
While the Wild shut Jaromir Jagr and Ray Whitney out on Sunday, the Dallas duo made a big impact on Saturday night. Their progress will be interesting to monitor throughout the next few weeks.
Surprisingly, Jagr saw his ice time rise from 16:04 in his four-point Saturday to exactly 18 minutes on a scoreless Sunday while Whitney went from 20-plus in Game 1 to about the same as Jagr yesterday.
In a vacuum, my gut would say Whitney is capable of a better season, but youngster Jamie Benn is the wildcard. If Jagr skates alongside Benn and Loui Eriksson, then he might even be more valuable than he was with Claude Giroux and Scott Hartnell last season.
Benn’s possible return also means you should be careful gauging Derek Roy. He can still be valuable - likely lining up with one or more of Jagr and Whitney isn’t exactly chopped liver - just note that his situation will change. He might see more dirty work in the future.
Switching aging gears, Teemu Selanne’s four-point night matched Jagr’s splendor. He scored twice on five shots and managed his big night despite just 15 minutes of ice time. With Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry likely to make big noise in contract years, defenses might not be able to focus as much on the Finnish Flash as they’d like. That could pay big dividends for what might be his swan song season.
QUICK LEARNERS
Rookies got off to nice starts, with Jonathan Huberdeau’s three-point night leading the pack. My Calder Trophy pick Vladimir Tarasenko joins Huberdeau as an especially appealing piece because he’s in a fairly prominent position on a likely playoff contender. Mikael Granlund is another guy who fits in that category and has an above average chance of sticking with his big club.
I see nothing wrong with rolling the dice regarding Huberdeau and Tarasenko in particular, yet there is always the risk of a demotion.
UNDER 50
While the waiver wires are at their ripest, I’ll pluck a few guys who are owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues as of that moment. Don’t consider this list comprehensive.
Dmitry Kulikov (48 percent) - The underrated Panthers blueliner finally left scary RFA land. He didn’t play Saturday because of jet-lag, but consider him back in the mix.
Overall, I think he’s a worthy pick-up for defensive-needy teams. It would be nice if he fired more shots on goal (and thus was a better goal scorer), piled up more PIM and generally did more than collect assists. Still, he managed 24 helpers in just 58 games last season and he's seeing his game improve as the team around him gets better. I'd say he's an above-average add, even if he's low on the sexy scale.
Martin Havlat (21 percent) - At this point, you probably know the drill with Havlat: he’s a talented player who is wildly injury prone.
To me, it comes down to your situation: did you have some other guys who suddenly went on the shelf? Are you winger-weak in a moderately deep league? Perhaps you’re a gambler and/or glutton for punishment?
Honestly, Havlat’s potential is enticing enough that I wouldn’t blame you for giving him a shot. Just don’t waste waiver priority status and make injury backup plans.
Ales Hemsky (11 percent) - Carries almost identical risk/reward factors as Havlat, although I’d rank Hemsky a little lower because he’s had even less luck generally speaking. He’s also less likely to pull the trigger, historically speaking.
That being said, he’s an alluring talent on a team that could be fun to watch. You could do worse, but again like Havlat, you should also understand what you’re getting into.
Tomas Vokoun (38 percent) - Considering his $2 million price tag, there’s every reason to believe that he’ll mop up back-to-back games among other opportunities. He already stacked up a win and carries the enticing combination of a track record of strong individual numbers and the talented Penguins team in front of him. I think he’s a strong pickup in almost any situation.
Michal Neuvirth (12 percent) - Adam Oates didn’t throw Braden Holtby under the bus after the Tampa Bay Lightning pounded the Capitals, but it’s not like the rather unproven young netminder was cemented in the No. 1 spot in the first place. Maybe it’s not time to add Neuvirth just yet, but he should at least be on your radar.
To review: Vokoun is a really strong add, Kulikov is a good one, Havlat and Hemsky are justifiable and Neuvirth is worth watching.
INJURIES (Full list here)
Nikolai Khabibulin remains on the IR. Maybe that contract year thing is running out … Ville Leino is day-to-day with a lower-body issue … Daniel Carcillo can’t annoy opponents for about a month thanks to a banged up right knee … Todd Bertuzzi could miss a couple weeks with mono … Kris Versteeg missed Saturday’s game after “pulling something” … Zac Rinaldo cut up his knee on Sunday.
The first games of the season are sloppy with emotions in any year, but that’s even more evident considering the mixed feelings from a lengthy lockout. And that anxiety rises that much more as the stakes are heightened by a condensed schedule.
Still, it’s important to keep this in mind after a fascinating first weekend: winning managers keep a cool head. If having a cool head puts you in position to exploit the hotheads raring to condemn any of Cory Schneider, the Philadelphia Flyers and the New York Rangers for a rough start, then even better.
(By the way, it’s not too late to draft up a team on Yahoo. Consult the Rotoworld Draft Guide to make your team as strong - and cool - as possible.)
Merely looking back at the beginning of the 2011-12 season tells you all you need to know about jumping to conclusions.
In case you’ve forgotten, here are a few of the storylines that emerged from the early days of that campaign - which were eventually dismissed: (Sometimes comically, I might add.)
- Gasp, Mike Smith won’t be able to live up to Ilya Bryzgalov’s example! He gave up six goals on Oct. 8 while the Swiss cheese Phoenix Coyotes allowed 52 shots on goal. They’ll regret not paying Ilya Bryzgalov, who clearly avoided the usual growing pains of moving to a new team with a shiny shutout. Surely these two goalies’ fates won’t switch, will they?
- Remember when the Minnesota Wild ran roughshod over the West, confounding stats experts in the process? That’s a great cautionary tale for the league as a whole and the team itself, although their odds of success are greater this season.
- Bruce Boudreau and the Washington Capitals looked bulletproof early in 2011-12 after they began the season on a seven-game winning streak.
That’s just a sample of the knee-jerk opportunities afforded when the sample sizes are especially small.
So, again, take a deep breath and ignore all the jokes and panicking on Twitter. An 0-2 mark doesn’t mean that Rick Nash transplanted the stench of defeat from Columbus to Broadway. On the overly optimistic side, the Wild’s 2-0 opening doesn’t guarantee that their $196 million splurge was worth it.
Still, that doesn’t mean you should bury your head in the sand altogether, either. This is a good time to study who might emerge with bigger roles - whether they’re rookies or players ascending to new heights. Don’t punt on goalies struggling early, but be particularly wary of guys who face a realistic chance of being usurped.
Oh, and of course, read the Daily Dose every weekday morning and Rotoworld everyday. It’s like giving your hockey brain vitamins, folks.
SPEAKING OF USURPING
The Roberto Luongo saga couldn’t end without a little extra drama, right?
Instead of being neatly shipped to Florida, Columbus, Toronto or some other seemingly goalie-needy outpost, Bobby Lou instead factored heavily into the proceedings for the Vancouver Canucks on both nights. Of course, he never would have had that chance if Cory Schneider didn’t get pulled against the Anaheim Ducks.
Not to be a broken record, but a game can’t make or break a guy who received a three-year, $12 million pact. Still, it does underscore a reasonable criticism of drafting Schneider in a prominent position: he remains relatively unproven.
I wouldn’t get overly worried, although Schneider owners have every reason to root for a trade. The longer Luongo stays - and eventually perhaps even wins - the more starts the younger netminder loses. Obviously, this is a situation to monitor, even if it’s not the frenzied mess that many Chicken Littles probably made it out to be.
EDLER SCROLLS/LUPUL LOCKED
This weekend featured two big contract extensions as the Canucks locked up Alexander Edler for six additional seasons while the Toronto Maple Leafs gave Joffrey Lupul a five-year extension.
The fantasy impact doesn’t strike me as wildly significant, although there are a few things to consider. Edler and Lupul owners miss out on the natural motivation of a contract year, although that can vary from player to player and is a subjective influence.
Reading into things more than a bit, re-signing Lupul makes it seem like the Buds might re-up Phil Kessel when they’re allowed to (his deal runs out after 2013-14). Meanwhile, the Canucks now have five defensemen carrying cap hits of $4 million or more, so someone has to go. Many believe Keith Ballard could be a buyout target, but you never know.
AGING WELL
While the Wild shut Jaromir Jagr and Ray Whitney out on Sunday, the Dallas duo made a big impact on Saturday night. Their progress will be interesting to monitor throughout the next few weeks.
Surprisingly, Jagr saw his ice time rise from 16:04 in his four-point Saturday to exactly 18 minutes on a scoreless Sunday while Whitney went from 20-plus in Game 1 to about the same as Jagr yesterday.
In a vacuum, my gut would say Whitney is capable of a better season, but youngster Jamie Benn is the wildcard. If Jagr skates alongside Benn and Loui Eriksson, then he might even be more valuable than he was with Claude Giroux and Scott Hartnell last season.
Benn’s possible return also means you should be careful gauging Derek Roy. He can still be valuable - likely lining up with one or more of Jagr and Whitney isn’t exactly chopped liver - just note that his situation will change. He might see more dirty work in the future.
Switching aging gears, Teemu Selanne’s four-point night matched Jagr’s splendor. He scored twice on five shots and managed his big night despite just 15 minutes of ice time. With Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry likely to make big noise in contract years, defenses might not be able to focus as much on the Finnish Flash as they’d like. That could pay big dividends for what might be his swan song season.
QUICK LEARNERS
Rookies got off to nice starts, with Jonathan Huberdeau’s three-point night leading the pack. My Calder Trophy pick Vladimir Tarasenko joins Huberdeau as an especially appealing piece because he’s in a fairly prominent position on a likely playoff contender. Mikael Granlund is another guy who fits in that category and has an above average chance of sticking with his big club.
I see nothing wrong with rolling the dice regarding Huberdeau and Tarasenko in particular, yet there is always the risk of a demotion.
UNDER 50
While the waiver wires are at their ripest, I’ll pluck a few guys who are owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues as of that moment. Don’t consider this list comprehensive.
Dmitry Kulikov (48 percent) - The underrated Panthers blueliner finally left scary RFA land. He didn’t play Saturday because of jet-lag, but consider him back in the mix.
Overall, I think he’s a worthy pick-up for defensive-needy teams. It would be nice if he fired more shots on goal (and thus was a better goal scorer), piled up more PIM and generally did more than collect assists. Still, he managed 24 helpers in just 58 games last season and he's seeing his game improve as the team around him gets better. I'd say he's an above-average add, even if he's low on the sexy scale.
Martin Havlat (21 percent) - At this point, you probably know the drill with Havlat: he’s a talented player who is wildly injury prone.
To me, it comes down to your situation: did you have some other guys who suddenly went on the shelf? Are you winger-weak in a moderately deep league? Perhaps you’re a gambler and/or glutton for punishment?
Honestly, Havlat’s potential is enticing enough that I wouldn’t blame you for giving him a shot. Just don’t waste waiver priority status and make injury backup plans.
Ales Hemsky (11 percent) - Carries almost identical risk/reward factors as Havlat, although I’d rank Hemsky a little lower because he’s had even less luck generally speaking. He’s also less likely to pull the trigger, historically speaking.
That being said, he’s an alluring talent on a team that could be fun to watch. You could do worse, but again like Havlat, you should also understand what you’re getting into.
Tomas Vokoun (38 percent) - Considering his $2 million price tag, there’s every reason to believe that he’ll mop up back-to-back games among other opportunities. He already stacked up a win and carries the enticing combination of a track record of strong individual numbers and the talented Penguins team in front of him. I think he’s a strong pickup in almost any situation.
Michal Neuvirth (12 percent) - Adam Oates didn’t throw Braden Holtby under the bus after the Tampa Bay Lightning pounded the Capitals, but it’s not like the rather unproven young netminder was cemented in the No. 1 spot in the first place. Maybe it’s not time to add Neuvirth just yet, but he should at least be on your radar.
To review: Vokoun is a really strong add, Kulikov is a good one, Havlat and Hemsky are justifiable and Neuvirth is worth watching.
INJURIES (Full list here)
Nikolai Khabibulin remains on the IR. Maybe that contract year thing is running out … Ville Leino is day-to-day with a lower-body issue … Daniel Carcillo can’t annoy opponents for about a month thanks to a banged up right knee … Todd Bertuzzi could miss a couple weeks with mono … Kris Versteeg missed Saturday’s game after “pulling something” … Zac Rinaldo cut up his knee on Sunday.