The Montreal Canadiens’ scary little nightmare is over.
No, they didn’t win their first Stanley Cup since 1993. Again, we’re talking about little nightmares here, at least relatively speaking.
Actually, losing P.K. Subban would have been more than a small issue, although from the sound of some of the harsher conjecture, most didn’t realize just how important the 23-year-old defenseman really is to the Habs’ future. It’s easy to get lost in the little things when your team manages a scrappy, 3-1-0 start in which it allowed only seven goals in four contests.
(Note: even with Subban, that’s as likely to be sustained as Patrick Marleau’s 37.5 percent shooting efficiency.)
Anyway, Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin won the staring contest on Monday, signing Subban to a stunningly cheap two-year, $5.75 million contract. I’ve heard a lot of rationalizing about the deal being fairer for Subban than it seems - the most reasonable side pointing out that the second season has a more reasonable payout of $3.75 million - but it’s still a ludicrous, ludicrous steal for Montreal.
Look, Dmitry Kulikov is a nice player, even if his fantasy value is limited by flabby peripherals. And Michael Del Zotto probably doesn’t deserve the nickname “Del Zaster,” either. Even so, those two fellow ex-RFAs are no Subbans. That’s true in fantasy as well as reality.
THE FANTASY SPIN
So, what’s the outlook for Subban and the rest of the Montreal defense? I’m glad I assumed that you asked.
Before all that, an important short-term thing to note is that he’s already been ruled out for Tuesday’s game against the Winnipeg Jets and onlookers believe that he’s only joining the team on Wednesday, but suiting up versus the Ottawa Senators. That might be a tough sell for the blueliner, who insisted he’s ready to go, so keep an eye on Rotoworld for updates on Wednesday in particular. If onlookers are correct, he’ll suit up on Saturday. Long story short, Subban will likely be eligible for between 42-43 Canadiens games - health permitting.
With that important logistical consideration out of the way, let’s first think about how versatile and valuable Subban can be. While his points (36 last year) and time on ice (more than 24 minutes in 2011-12) are obvious strengths, he really establishes himself in multiple stat categories. He's hovered around 200 shots on goal the past two seasons, which is all you can really ask for from a blueliner. He's had two double-digit power-play point campaigns and has had 119 and 124 PIM seasons. If you happen to have hits and/or blocked shots categories, he's golden like Pony Boy in those spots, too.
So, yeah, Subban is fantastic. It was really tough to forecast his value because of the holdout, and no doubt, that did hurt; he’s going to miss at least 10 percent of the season as of today’s game.
That mainly helps you realize his trade value, though. What happens to the value of others?
WHO LOSES
It’s a little complicated in Montreal, especially since it’s such a small sample size. Still, the area I look at his power play, which means three guys are susceptible.
Andrei Markov - When it comes to the guy I call Sergei Gonchar 2.0, Subban isn’t likely to be the biggest threat; his health is. My reasoned guess is he’d get top PP time with Subban unless he’s injured. For the most part.
Tomas Kaberle - He’s been a healthy scratch even without Subban, so this cannot be good for the former Maple Leafs’ already dismal situation. Injuries or really big slumps are all that I’d guess could help him.
Raphael Diaz - The defenseman with a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles-inspired* name could lose the most value from this signing. Diaz has averaged 4:23 of power-play time per game in 2012-13, up from just 1:39 per game last season. Now, it's quite possible Diaz will get more than a minute and a half per game anyway, but he's far less appealing receiving half the man advantage opportunities he was getting before. Then again, with five points in four games, maybe Subban will need to wrestle with him for those minutes for at least a little while.
* - I will hear no other arguments on this matter
After the jump: more from Monday and an interesting debate
The Montreal Canadiens’ scary little nightmare is over.
No, they didn’t win their first Stanley Cup since 1993. Again, we’re talking about little nightmares here, at least relatively speaking.
Actually, losing P.K. Subban would have been more than a small issue, although from the sound of some of the harsher conjecture, most didn’t realize just how important the 23-year-old defenseman really is to the Habs’ future. It’s easy to get lost in the little things when your team manages a scrappy, 3-1-0 start in which it allowed only seven goals in four contests.
(Note: even with Subban, that’s as likely to be sustained as Patrick Marleau’s 37.5 percent shooting efficiency.)
Anyway, Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin won the staring contest on Monday, signing Subban to a stunningly cheap two-year, $5.75 million contract. I’ve heard a lot of rationalizing about the deal being fairer for Subban than it seems - the most reasonable side pointing out that the second season has a more reasonable payout of $3.75 million - but it’s still a ludicrous, ludicrous steal for Montreal.
Look, Dmitry Kulikov is a nice player, even if his fantasy value is limited by flabby peripherals. And Michael Del Zotto probably doesn’t deserve the nickname “Del Zaster,” either. Even so, those two fellow ex-RFAs are no Subbans. That’s true in fantasy as well as reality.
THE FANTASY SPIN
So, what’s the outlook for Subban and the rest of the Montreal defense? I’m glad I assumed that you asked.
Before all that, an important short-term thing to note is that he’s already been ruled out for Tuesday’s game against the Winnipeg Jets and onlookers believe that he’s only joining the team on Wednesday, but suiting up versus the Ottawa Senators. That might be a tough sell for the blueliner, who insisted he’s ready to go, so keep an eye on Rotoworld for updates on Wednesday in particular. If onlookers are correct, he’ll suit up on Saturday. Long story short, Subban will likely be eligible for between 42-43 Canadiens games - health permitting.
With that important logistical consideration out of the way, let’s first think about how versatile and valuable Subban can be. While his points (36 last year) and time on ice (more than 24 minutes in 2011-12) are obvious strengths, he really establishes himself in multiple stat categories. He's hovered around 200 shots on goal the past two seasons, which is all you can really ask for from a blueliner. He's had two double-digit power-play point campaigns and has had 119 and 124 PIM seasons. If you happen to have hits and/or blocked shots categories, he's golden like Pony Boy in those spots, too.
So, yeah, Subban is fantastic. It was really tough to forecast his value because of the holdout, and no doubt, that did hurt; he’s going to miss at least 10 percent of the season as of today’s game.
That mainly helps you realize his trade value, though. What happens to the value of others?
WHO LOSES
It’s a little complicated in Montreal, especially since it’s such a small sample size. Still, the area I look at his power play, which means three guys are susceptible.
Andrei Markov - When it comes to the guy I call Sergei Gonchar 2.0, Subban isn’t likely to be the biggest threat; his health is. My reasoned guess is he’d get top PP time with Subban unless he’s injured. For the most part.
Tomas Kaberle - He’s been a healthy scratch even without Subban, so this cannot be good for the former Maple Leafs’ already dismal situation. Injuries or really big slumps are all that I’d guess could help him.
Raphael Diaz - The defenseman with a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles-inspired* name could lose the most value from this signing. Diaz has averaged 4:23 of power-play time per game in 2012-13, up from just 1:39 per game last season. Now, it's quite possible Diaz will get more than a minute and a half per game anyway, but he's far less appealing receiving half the man advantage opportunities he was getting before. Then again, with five points in four games, maybe Subban will need to wrestle with him for those minutes for at least a little while.
* - I will hear no other arguments on this matter
After the jump: more from Monday and an interesting debate
TOEWS VS JUMBO JOE
I received an interesting question via Twitter on Monday (maybe because of Monday’s Dose): who has more trade value, Jonathan Toews or Joe Thornton? Rarely do such high-end draft picks get the direct comparison; usually, you’re talking about Toews + another asset or two for Thornton + another asset or two.
After crunching the numbers, well … it’s close. Let’s look at the numbers:
Last two seasons for Thornton:
21 G, 49 A for 70 points, 33 PPP, +4, 47 PIM, 149 SOG
18 G, 59 A for 77 points, 23 PPP, +17, 31 PIM. 156 SOG
Jonathan Toews last two seasons:
32 G, 44 A for 76 points, 25 PPP, +25, 26 PIM, 233 SOG
59 GP: 29 G, 28 A for 57 points, 12 PPP, +17, 28 PIM, 185 SOG
It’s pretty stunning that Toews had more shots on goal than Thornton last season despite being limited to 59 games played, and that’s the opening salvo in my pro-Toews argument. He edges Jumbo Joe quite convincingly in the peripherals. While plus/minus is dicey, it’s hard to ignore Toews’ +17 and +25 from the last two seasons. He’s more of a goal scorer, so that means he gets the more precious goals vs. assists and SOG as well.
Thornton holds edges, too, though. He’s a power-play point machine and one cannot totally ignore his workhorse health. Sure, it’s easy to say that Toews achieved a lot in 59 games last season, but owners still lost him for 23.
Ultimately, Toews wins by a nose, unless Thornton transforms to Boston Jumbo Joe and starts piling up 100 PIM seasons again.
Do note this, though: the difference is close enough that if you find yourself yelling at the computer while disagreeing with my points, you can very well stick with Thornton. I doubt you’d regret having either of them on your team at all.
Also: Thornton’s value is at an all-time high, so you should ask for a small upgrade (remember asset for other asset?) anyway.
LANDESKOG CLOGGED
Before we get into the general injury section, I think it’s best to acknowledge Gabriel Landeskog’s worrisome situation. I’ve heard he might just be day-to-day, but his symptoms - and that vicious Brad Stuart hit - sure carry the smell of a concussion. Stay tuned both at Rotoworld and the Daily Dose(s) regarding that troubling scenario.
INJURY NOTES (full list) and QUICK HITS
Jamie Benn made his season debut against the Columbus Blue Jackets, who beat the Dallas Stars 2-1 last night. Jaromir Jagr came back and did little. Derek Roy is on the IR. Bad times for the Stars all-around … Speaking of that game, Sergei Bobrovsky’s looking like a serviceable starter 1A/1B guy for Columbus. Maybe the franchise is better off starting Steve Mason regularly to improve its draft status in the 2013 draft … The Edmonton Oilers pounded the Colorado Avalanche. The most important takeaway? Start your players when they’re going up against the Avs … Chad Johnson only needed 21 saves to record his first career shutout as the Phoenix Coyotes thrashed the Nashville Predators 4-0. I’d give Johnson a little more time to prove himself, unless you have a revolving door roster (in which case he might have one-week value). The bigger story? Zero wins for Pekka Rinne and zero points for Shea Weber so far. Woof … Kris Versteeg is expected to make his season debut tonight. Finally … Hey, Mikael Samuelsson is dinged up (day-to-day). As usual … Just in case Tomas Kaberle is injured instead of a healthy scratch, he took a puck to the face. So that might be the issue (not being ineffective) … Matt Niskanen has a lower-body issue, but isn’t expected to miss much time … Clarke MacArthur’s day-to-day with a finger injury.