This week, for the final column of 2009, a look back at what Rick and I did right and what we did wrong in the LABR and Tout leagues in the hope of learning something for 2010. So I can end on a higher note, I will start with the five big mistakes or "did wrongs" of the year.
Josh Hamilton: It is no secret that Rick and I invest in top talent and are willing to spend big to get it. At first blush, Hamilton, a supremely talented hitter in a strong lineup and a great hitter's park seemed like a sure thing. He wasn't. I often say that you will not win leagues with your big money picks, but you can surely lose them. Hamilton is 50% of the reason Rick and I are not in the running in Tout. What went wrong you ask? Well, we invested big without a real track record of success. Yes, it was awesome to see his display of power in the home run derby in 2008. Yes, his 130 RBI were a pretty sight last year. However, before we plunked down so much dinero, we should have focused on the fact that Hamilton had exactly one full season of big time production in the show. Shame on us.
Alex Rios: The Tout plan really did make sense. There were precious few top of the line players in the AL at 2b, SS or 3b. So, we budgeted 100 of our 260 to get three young, established, multi-category stars to anchor the Tout team. All of the problems with Hamilton apply to Rios. To make matters worse, Alex was set to play for a bad team – thus violating the T in SMART (meaning draft players on good teams when possible). While it may seem like the toolsy Rios has been a fixture for quite a while, he really has not. Before we botched things up with him in March 2009, he had never hit over .300 in a full season, never knocked in over 85 runs and never even reached the 25 HR plateau. Yes, he looked like a good bet to hit .290 with speed and power this year. Good for speculation, bad for a team anchor. Not very SMART.
Corey Hart: I think you are starting to get the point. Big investment in supposedly up and coming toolsy player in March equals lamenting a losing season in October. Yes, Hart was at the right age for a bump in production at 27 and yes, he had two 20/20 seasons under his belt. However, he still had never hit 25 HR, never hit .300, never knocked in 100 runs, and suffered a 27 point drop in AVG from 07-08. There was good reason to think Hart would continue to improve. There was no reason to pay for predictable .300-30-100 when he had never done any of those things in the past. Again, not very SMART.
Jhonny Peralta: In looking around the AL, we saw little that excited us at SS. So, instead of spending 30 bucks on a Derek Jeter (who even in his great years is a better real player than fantasy player), we decided to go 20 on an up and coming 26 year old SS. Too much money spent on the come once again. Yes, a 10-15 investment in Peralta made sense. He had returned that kind of investment before. However, Jhonny had never hit 25 HR, never hit above .276, has no speed and was playing for a team that did not project to be very good. So, what happened? Like the rest of the Indians, Jhonny went backwards and has posted only 11 dingers and a weak .254 average. I still believe he can be a much better player. I simply will not pay for his upside again. The way one wins fantasy leagues is to buy low and then enjoy the bump up. When you pay as if the bump up is guaranteed, you cannot profit, you can only lose. We lost with Jhonny.
Brad Penny: Ok, we only paid a couple of bucks here, so that was not really bad. We also bought a pitcher on the Red Sox – a team that despite my Yankee loyalty was destined to be good in 2009. So, why is Penny on this list? Good question. The answer is that we forget that Penny's line of success in recent years was compiled in the NL (where faced pitchers, not DH's), in a pitcher's park at Dodger's Stadium, not a hitter heaven like Fenway, and in the NL west facing the Padres and Giants, rather than the AL east facing the Yankees and 2008 AL champion Rays. Predictably, Penny failed in Boston. However, now that he is in SF, back in the NL west, back in a pitcher's park, he could be a steal in 2010 (if he stays in SF).
Enough negativity, you think? As Owen Wilson says in "Wedding Crashers" I am sick of your "[expletive] negativity." So, we go on to the brighter side of life, and examine five things Rick and I did right in 2009:
Zack Greinke: When you see a pitcher make the big leagues and dominate at the tender young age of 20, he has the goods and more. In 2004, even though he was not even allowed to have a post game beer in most states, Zack posted an ERA under 4.00, a k/bb of almost 4:1 and a WHIP of 1.17. His disappearance from the big leagues was mental, not physical. So, those who saw Zack post very strong years in 07 and 08 knew he was on his way to becoming a mature, top of the line starter in 2009. We saw that and got a huge return on our $21 investment.
Josh Johnson: As many readers know, we follow the SMART 3.0 strategy, which means that we have changed from investing $30 in one top starter (which worked in 4x4 but does not in 5x5) to investing $45 in three solid upwardly mobile starters. That worked like a charm in NL LABR with Johnson, Lilly and Clayton Kershaw. Of those three, Johnson was the star. This year, Johnson has 15 wins, 186 Ks an ERA right around 3.00 and a strong WHIP – a huge return on a $16 investment. What were the signs? First, Johnson was in his second year post-TJ surgery. Second, he plays in a pitcher's dream park in Florida. Third, like Greinke, Johnson had major success in the show at a very young age (2006 with an ERA under 3.00 at 22 years of age). This was a SMART move.
Alberto Callaspo: The $1 and $2 investments that pay big win you fantasy leagues. Had we not been so boneheaded with Hamilton and Rios in Tout, the Callaspo pickup would have seemed brilliant. Alas, not so. However, there are real lessons in this successful move. Were there signs that Alberto would rise this high? Yes. First, Callaspo is 26 years old with two seasons of big league play under his belt (pre 09). Second, as I noted a couple of weeks ago, Callaspo had hit .305 in his 200+ AB in the show in 2008 and .336 and .340 in AAA in 06 and 07. Third, there was not real middle infield talent in front of him in KC. Bottom line, if you are going to invest in a player on a bad team, find one undervalued who will get opportunities he would not get in New York, Boston or LA.
Mark Teixeira: I have devoted a lot of this column to big investments in hitters hoping for big production. Well, we had not totally lost our baseball compass. Our big investment in both LABR and Tout in Mark Teixeira made all the sense in the world. First, he is in his prime at 29. Second, he plays in a great lineup. Third, he has a great proven track record: 30+ HR and 100+ RBI for five straight seasons. Add in the fact that he is a switch hitter who has hit in Texas, LA and Atlanta, and you have a guy you can take to the bank. Had we spent big on more proven track records like Teixeira, our Callaspo types could have taken us to the promised land. Alas, it was not meant to be, however, investing in big Tex was very SMART.
J.A. Happ: Frankly, I cannot take credit for this one. J.A. is all Rick. However, the $1 spent here was pure genius. Why, you ask? First, Happ was undervalued because of the supposed depth of the Phillies rotation. However, sharp eyes saw opportunity at every turn. Hamels is injury prone, Moyer is 46, Meyers had been bounced between rotation and bullpen and Officer Joe Blanton had pitched his first strong statistical year in 08. Happ, on the other hand, is a 26 year old lefty with good stuff who looked poised in tight playoff situations. Nice job Rick!
Save this column in "fantasy baseball" folder and re-read it before draft day 2010. There are some good lessons here – lessons Rick and I will study harder in our quest for LABR title IV.
Now, the moment his mommy and daddy have been waiting for . . . Schultz says: "Fortunately, we are called The Week That Was so we get to have a column on the last weekend of the season that doesn't exist solely to fuel our vanity or feed our egos. Here at The Week That Was, we aren't about putting ourselves before the work or glorifying ourselves at the expense of the content. It's a wonderfully humble enterprise. So in line with the humility with which your humble narrator takes great pride in, I present to you the highly anticipated 2009 ALL-SCHULTZ AWARDS!!! (cue wild applause . . . oh, that's right, we aren't on TV).
THE 2009 LARRY BIRD/MAGIC JOHNSON/DR. J. ROOKIE CARD TEAM. For the 1980-1981 basketball season, Topps experimented with a 3 in 1 card that consisted of a single perforated card that could be split in thirds. One such card contained the rookie cards for Magic Johnson and Larry Bird and the venerable dunk machine, Dr. J. Many people had this card, no one respected it, many broke it into threes and even more threw it out. An unseparated card is now worth thousands. This team is made of players who you didn't appreciate in March and that you love and cherish now.
C: Miguel Olivo (KC) - light hitting catchers are a dime a dozen, this one hit 23 HRs
1B: Kendry Morales (ANA) - ready to be written of as a bust, the Cuban defector busted out and bettered the benchmarks of .300, 30 and 100
2B: Aaron Hill (TOR) - an unpredictable power surge from a generally undrafted Blue Jay
SS: Jason Bartlett (TB) - Slowed by an injury, the former light-hitting Twin showed remarkable pop, versatility and speed for bargain value prices
3B: Pablo Sandoval (SF) - Kung Fu Panda challenged for a hitting title, displayed a little power and owned the best nickname of 09
OF: Ben Zobrist (TB) - slugging nearly 30 HRs will turn you from a man without a position to a jack of all trades real quick
OF: Chris Coghlan (FLA) - a converted infielder and future batting champion, he could be the second coming of Tony Gwynn. He hit .867 in the second half (average an estimate)
OF: Rajai Davis (OAK) - an afterthought without a starting job, he was the speedster to have in the second half
SP: Scott Feldman (TEX)/Edwin Jackson (DET) - Feldman for being lights-out with Feldman as a last name; Jackson for finally living up to his potential
RP: Ryan Franklin (STL) - back in April, Jason Motte and Chris Perez were shrewd sleeper picks and Franklin just had a cool beard
THE 2009 JAN & DEAN TEAM. Sometime after the All-Star break, this team went over Dead Man's Curve.
C: Brandon Inge (DET) - he leapt to the 20 HR mark in no time, he was a defanged Tiger after that
1B: Kevin Youkilis (BOS) - in all fairness though, each year, his bid for a Triple Crown fades as the year goes on
2B: Orlando Hudson (LA) - from unwanted to All-Star to eh
SS: Miguel Tejada (HOU) - a strong finish saves a quick fade after mid-season. All in all though, you got more than you deserved from him this season
3B: Scott Rolen (TOR/CIN) - the vet looked resurgent in Toronto, a beaning cut short what looked to the comeback of the year
OF: Raul Ibanez (PHI) - I guess he fell off that 82 HR, 187 RBI pace
OF: Jayson Werth (PHI) - so did he
OF: Bob Abreu (ANA) - in the first half, he made every team who avoided him look stupid, running and racking like old; in the second half, he looked old
SP: Johnny Cueto (CIN) - he started the season looking untouchable, once people noticed, he turned into a BP machine
RP: George Sherrill (BAL/LA) - his WHIP plummeted when he was shipped west but his saves evaporated
THE 2009 AIG BONUS TEAM: you are outraged about what you got in return for your investment
C: Kelly Shoppach (CLE) - he regressed in every way imaginable and the Tribe now looks to Santana and Marson
1B: David Ortiz (BOS) - you had to feel good when the steroid bomb hit while Big Papi was hitting .100
2B: Howie Kendrick (ANA) - he great, if he's healthy. Better men than you have gone down wagering on that "if"
SS: Jose Reyes (NYM) - edges out Rollins by not playing at all for most of the year with an amorphous leg injury
3B: David Wright (NYM) - 10 HR, 70 RBIs and 1 horrible beaning were not what you expected from the potential MVP candidate
OF: Magglio Ordonez (DET) - rather than anchor the resurgent Tigers, they contemplated cutting him mid-season
OF: Josh Hamilton (TEX) - perhaps it's unwise to invest in an injury prone recovering addict who relapsed in the off-season. Just a thought
OF: Manny Ramirez (LA) - banned for testing positive for a women's fertility drug takes Manny being Manny to a whole new level
SP: Johan Santana (NYM) - this list could be all Mets, couldn't it. The pre-season arm worries were legit. You should've listened.
RP: Brad Lidge (PHI) - every couple years, he seems to forget the point of pitching is not to pad the hitters averages
THE 2010 ALL-SCHULTZ ALL-STARS: Remember these guys next spring.
C: Matt Wieters (BAL)
1B: Billy Butler (KC)
2B: Ian Stewart (COL)
SS: Alcides Escobar (MIL)
3B: Andy Marte (CLE)
OF: Matt LaPorta (CLE)
OF: Dexter Fowler (COL)
OF: Colby Rasmus (STL)
SP: Clay Buccholz (BOS)
RP: Neftali Feliz (TEX)
It may be out of character for me but I'd like to thank Glenn as well as all of you that continue reading down to the end of the column. However, to step back into character, those who write in suggesting they can do this better than myself can go f*^% themselves. Should you miss my writing, feel free to check out Earvolution over the winter months, we'll make you feel welcome over there.
See you all in 2010."
Response: Great stuff. In all seriousness, thanks again for another great season of work! The Indians could really use you right now.
Final thoughts (read rant): As football is in full swing, this is my column, and I have one last chance to rant, here goes: Last week I wrote: "Despite the fact that the Dallas Cowboys have the most rushing yards in the league, have three quality backs, two tight ends who can block, and a huge and imposing veteran offensive line, [Jason] Garrett abandons the run and puts Tony Romo in difficult, unnecessary situations. Why??????? If he would just stick with what works, Dallas would have beaten the Giants in the 07 playoffs and would have won the opener in Jerryland. But no. For all the criticism of Tony Romo (and some is fair), he is being hampered by an offensive coordinator who cannot seem to stick with basics and protect his QB and team when necessary. Romo will bounce back and will become the great QB he is destined to become. However, he will do it despite, not because of, Jason Garrett. Oh Mike Shanahan, where are you?"
So what happens the next week? Garrett's team blows the Panthers off the line time and again. The Cowboys run up and down the field, seemingly at will. Yet, with 2nd and goal from the Panthers 2 yard line and a chance to ice the game, Garrett calls a fade pattern to Roy Williams. In a word – stupid. Then, remarkably, on 3rd and goal, he calls the SAME PLAY to TE Martellus Bennet! Mind boggling idiotic! Predictably, that play failed, befuddled the crowd and the commentators, and kept Carolina in the game. Only a big INT from Terrence Newman saved the day. So, my final though here for Jason Garrett is . . . RUN THE FOOTBALL!
Thank you all for reading and listening. It has been a pleasure writing for you all season. For those in the hunt for a baseball title today, good luck. For those building for next year, we will be back in 2010 to help your drive for a title.
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Glenn Colton is a long-time fantasy sports player, author of numerous print and electronic media fantasy sports articles, and a participant in expert leagues, including baseball's LABR league and football's FTSA experts league. Colton and Rick Wolf have won the AL LABR Championship three times. |
Contact Glenn Colton
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