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Aaron Gleeman
Baseball Daily Dose
February 7, 2010
Verlander, Gregg, and Hudson
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Breaking down three of the week's more interesting bits of news from a fantasy point of view ...

Verlander signs five-year, $80 million extension

After letting Felix Hernandez set the market last month with his five-year, $78 million extension with the Mariners, Justin Verlander inked a five-year, $80 million deal with the Tigers this week. Both pitchers would have been eligible for free agency after 2011, so their service time was essentially the same, which makes Verlander getting slightly more money over the same number of seasons interesting.

Hernandez is three years younger than Verlander, finished one spot higher in the Cy Young balloting last season, and has a lower career ERA with more innings. Verlander is definitely an elite starter and the Tigers did well to lock him up at that price, but because Hernandez is both better and younger it seems like Verlander simply benefited from being the second guy to the negotiating table.

Just as Hernandez's long-term fantasy value benefits from calling Safeco Field home, Verlander's stock is bolstered by pitching at Comerica Park through at least 2014. He has a 3.73 ERA at the Tigers' pitcher-friendly ballpark compared to 4.11 ERA on the road. We have Verlander ranked as the No. 8 fantasy starter for 2010, with the Draft Guide projecting him to go 16-9 with a 3.53 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 211 strikeouts in 206 innings.

Gregg joins Toronto's closer mix

Kevin Gregg lost the Cubs' closer job to Carlos Marmol down the stretch last season, but made it clear that finding a team willing to let him compete for ninth-inning duties was the driving force behind his decision-making as a free agent. Sure enough rather than take a job setting up Heath Bell in San Diego he agreed to a deal with Toronto, where Gregg has a very good chance to begin the season at closer.

Last week manager Cito Gaston named Jason Frasor and Scott Downs as his potential closers, but neither guy is an ideal ninth-inning option. Gregg certainly isn't either after blowing 20 saves in 104 chances while posting a 3.86 ERA with 107 walks in 221.1 innings over the past three seasons, but in terms of closing experience he has nearly twice as many career saves (85) as Frasor (32) and Downs (16) combined.

If put in Gaston's shoes I'd likely go with Downs at closer most of the time, but also use Frasor or Gregg when multiple dangerous right-handed bats were due up. However, my guess is that Gregg has a leg up on the job heading into spring training mostly because he's done it before. Right now the Draft Guide has all three guys with relatively similar value, but we'll be updating their projections once Gaston's intentions become clearer.

Twins sign Hudson, but still waiting on Mauer

A television report about Joe Mauer and the Twins agreeing to a 10-year extension proved off base, but while nothing is official yet and the length of a potential deal remains unclear it sounds like just about everyone involved expects a contract to be in place by Opening Day. In the meantime the Twins continued their strong offseason by signing Orlando Hudson to a one-year, $5 million contract.

Last season the Twins got an MLB-worst .209 batting average and .569 OPS from their second basemen, so Hudson's career .281/.348/.431 mark represents a huge upgrade. His four straight seasons with an on-base percentage above .350 also make Hudson a good fit in the lineup's No. 2 spot, where he'll have a pair of MVP winners in Mauer and Justin Morneau batting directly behind him.

Hudson's lack of upside at age 32 limits him to being the No. 17 ranked fantasy second baseman in the Draft Guide, but as a near-lock to end up as a top-20 option he makes for a safer pick than some of the younger guys (Scott Sizemore, Rickie Weeks, Martin Prado) just ahead of him. He's an ideal second-tier second baseman in AL-only leagues and a nice late-round target at middle infielder in mixed leagues.

To get projections, rankings, and profiles of all these players and hundreds more, check out Rotoworld's award-winning Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.



 

Aaron Gleeman is a RotoWorld Senior Baseball Editor and also contributes heavily to football coverage. His work has been featured in Sports Illustrated and he can also be found blogging at AaronGleeman.com.
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