At times Thursday afternoon it appeared that Manny Ramirez would remain in Boston past the trading deadline when the Red Sox, Pirates, and Marlins couldn't hammer out a massive three-team trade revolving around the future Hall of Famer. Instead, the Dodgers replaced the Marlins at the last moment to finish the blockbuster trade, sending Ramirez to Los Angeles, Jason Bay to Boston, and Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss, Craig Hansen, and Bryan Morris to Pittsburgh.

Many people will be surprised that the Red Sox dealt Ramirez without getting another big-name player in return, but Bay would be a household name if he played in prominent market. Not only is he a capable and potentially even superior replacement for Ramirez down the stretch this season, Bay is seven years younger, much cheaper, and under the Red Sox's control for 2009. Swapping Ramirez, Moss, and Hansen for Bay is an excellent move for Boston.

Ramirez is one of the greatest hitters in baseball history and even in his mid-30s remains one of the best bats in the game, but his production has definitely come down a notch since his prime. After posting an OPS of at least .950 each year from 1995 to 2006, Ramirez is currently on pace to undershoot that mark for the second straight season. He's batted .297/.392/.508 in 233 games since the beginning of last season, including .299/.398/.529 in 100 games this year.

Meanwhile, Bay has bounced back from a hugely disappointing, injury-wrecked 2007 season to hit .282/.375/.519 in 100 games and has posted a nearly identical .281/.375/.515 hitting line in 3,048 career plate appearances. For both this season and his six-year career Bay's production is about four percent below Ramirez's production over the past two seasons. Not only isn't that a huge dropoff, once you account for park factors and defense, Bay potentially comes out ahead.

Fenway Park is one of the most hitter-friendly locations in baseball, while PNC Park in Pittsburgh is pitcher-friendly. Because of that it's not surprising to see that Bay has actually posted a slightly higher OPS on the road during his career while Ramirez has been substantially more productive at home as a member of the Red Sox, including posting a higher home OPS in six of his eight seasons in Boston.

Once ballparks are factored in, Bay at 29 years old and Ramirez at 36 years old come out looking awfully close—they essentially both look good for an OPS around .900—and the gap in defensive value swings heavily in Bay's favor. In other words, the Red Sox acquired a similar hitter and superior defender who's significantly younger and under the team's control through next season. Moss and Hansen were the cost to swap, but Boston won't miss either in the big picture.

From the Pirates' point of view giving up an excellent all-around player like Bay was no doubt a very tough decision, but even at 29 years old Bay was unlikely to be in Pittsburgh and performing at his current level when the team's planned rebuilding effort potentially pays off. By parting with him now the Pirates pick up a long-term solution at third base in LaRoche, a solid young outfield replacement for Bay in Moss, and two intriguing arms in Hansen and Morris.

LaRoche is the centerpiece of the deal from Pittsburgh's standpoint and figures to immediately take over as the starting third baseman. He's yet to hit in the majors, but wasn't given much of a chance by the Dodgers and is a 24-year-old career .310/.412/.544 hitter with 33 homers and an outstanding 88-to-101 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 167 games at Triple-A. LaRoche projects to hit for a solid batting average with good power and strong plate discipline, and is a plus defensively too.

Moss doesn't have nearly as much upside as LaRoche, but is also 24 years old and should give the Pirates a reasonable outfield replacement for Bay. He batted .291/.348/.456 in 115 trips to the plate for the Red Sox scattered over the past two season and is a .282/.359/.485 career hitter with 24 homers and a 195-to-77 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 176 games at Triple-A. Moss won't be close to Bay, but should be close to a league-average corner outfielder.

Morris and Hansen are former first-round picks who've since become question marks, Morris due to undergoing Tommy John surgery last year and Hansen because his struggles in various stints in the majors. Morris has come back strong from surgery to pitch well at low Single-A this season and the 21-year-old right-hander looks capable of developing into a mid-rotation starter long term. Hansen's remaining potential is debatable, but at worst he's an intriguing bullpen arm.

In shipping Ramirez to Los Angeles the Red Sox agreed to pay his entire remaining salary for this season and in acquiring him the Dodgers agreed to decline team options for both 2009 and 2010. In other words, the Dodgers gave up a good, young third baseman in LaRoche and a solid young pitching prospect in Morris for two months of Ramirez. There's no doubt that he'll be an upgrade over Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones, assuming of course that the Dodgers bench the right guys.

However, is the difference between Ramirez and Pierre/Jones (or Andre Ethier/Matt Kemp if the Dodgers go nuts) over the course of 50 games really worth LaRoche and Morris? To me the answer is no, but the Dodgers seemingly soured on LaRoche and dealing 21-year-old pitchers who've already gone under the knife is typically a reasonable gamble. It's clear why the Dodgers made the deal, but they may overrate the upgrade Ramirez brings and underrate LaRoche.

For fantasy purposes, LaRoche and Moss receive the biggest value boosts by going from toiling away at Triple-A to being starters in both the short and long term. LaRoche is a one of the better young third basemen in baseball and has a chance to be a legitimate star within a couple years, while Moss should be a capable platoon player against right-handers with a chance to emerge as a solid everyday player. For upsides, think .290-25-100 for LaRoche and .270-20-75 for Moss.

Ramirez sees his fantasy value drop somewhat, both because he's moving to a tougher ballpark to post big numbers and because he's no longer batting behind David Ortiz in a great lineup. The switch from AL to NL may help offset some of that, but he definitely shouldn't be expected to post his usual numbers from Boston. Bay's value rises slightly for many of the same reasons that Ramirez's value declines, although he doesn't seem likely to experience huge improvement.

General manager Theo Epstein and the Red Sox made the best of a tough situation, swapping a 36-year-old future Hall of Famer for a 29-year-old who figures to nearly match his overall value and did so without giving up anyone else of major significance in the process. Pittsburgh's new regime also comes out looking fairly good, getting back a long-term answer at third base, a solid replacement for Bay in the outfield, and two intriguing young arms.

For the Dodgers, parting with LaRoche and Morris to get 50 games of Ramirez strikes me as a mistake, although much less so if they add compensatory draft picks when he leaves as a free agent. Plus, the Dodgers will certainly feel good about the move either way if Ramirez comes up big down the stretch and into October. Los Angeles may also end up re-signing Ramirez beyond this year, but will no doubt pay a premium to do so and may have to commit to him into his 40s.