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Rob Blackstien
Offseason Lowdown
December 28, 2006
Replacement Unit
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The Yankees are thinking about putting an old rusty unit up for sale in the hopes of clearing some space for a newer model. Rumors abound this week that Randy Johnson could be dealt, clearing the decks for New York to go after a slightly younger southpaw in the form of Barry Zito.

If they can pull it off, the Yanks will not only rid themselves of an aging, health risk, but also land the best free agent still on the market in the form of a durable pitcher 15 years the Unit's junior.

But step one will be establishing a market for Johnson.

Arizona cropped up as the first potential suitor, and it's a place Johnson knows well, having toiled there for six seasons before donning the pinstripes in 2005.

The Diamondbacks have made a concerted effort to beef up their pitching staff this offseason, adding Doug Davis and Dana Eveland in a deal, and making overtures towards free agents as well. But they understand the risks involved in bringing back the Unit, and are treading cautiously as a result.

The two teams have reportedly been talking for a week, yet don't seem to be making any progress. In fact, now that other teams are throwing their names in the hat, the D-Backs may not be the best bet. Apparently, Arizona made an offer that included as least three players, but it was not willing to surrender the solid big leaguers or top prospects the Yanks want for a 43-year-old starter with back issues.

If Arizona is unable to bring back one of its aces from the 2001 World Series, it won't necessarily be a bad thing. This is a young team with plenty of offensive talent on the way. Does it make sense to add a pitcher Johnson's age to a team built to win in the future?

Seattle, another ex-employer of Johnson, is still very much in need of starting pitching and with the Unit being bandied about as trade fodder, the Mariners are interested. Could dangling Richie Sexson, with two years and $28 million left on his deal, get it done? How about a three-way deal that involves Adrian Beltre?

The Angels are also apparently intrigued, although their interest is a bit more puzzling, unless they can somehow convince the Yanks to throw a third baseman into the mix.

The Padres may have moved to the forefront in the Johnson sweepstakes considering they may offer (as per the New York Post anyways) Scott Linebrink and two prospects, one of them possibly Kevin Kouzmanoff. Wouldn't a staff that included Greg Maddux and Johnson be fascinating, if nothing else?

San Francisco seemed interested and the Dodgers have also been mentioned as a possible player in these talks.

How did all this get started? According to SI's John Heyman, Johnson asked the Yanks to deal him closer to his Phoenix home. It wasn't an absolute demand, however. The Unit did say if a suitable trade couldn't be found, he'd happily return to the Bronx for 2007. Armed with a no-trade clause, Johnson can control this whole process if the Yanks make a deal not to his liking. That's probably the biggest advantage Arizona has in terms of leverage.

Bear in mind that Johnson underwent surgery to repair a herniated disk in his lower back just over two months ago. The procedure will likely cut into his spring training, and quite possibly will mean he won't be ready for Opening Day. Obviously any deal would hinge on him passing a physical.

The surgery definitely clouds things, as does his performance-related questions. We're not exactly talking about a perennial Cy Young candidate anymore. We're talking about a pitcher who had a full-season ERA over 5.00 for the first time. Sure, Johnson is headed to the Hall, but his domination rate has been in free fall since he arrived in New York and the 7.55 Ks he averaged per nine innings last year represented Johnson's worst rate since 1989. Yes, he's won 34 games in two years as a Yank, but two of the three times he's allowed opponents to slug .400 or better have occurred in these two years.

After getting hammered in his only ALDS start, Johnson now has a 7.11 ERA over his last four playoff appearances. In fairness, he was pitching hurt in that last start, but that doesn't explain the rest of his poor playoff showings and those are not the numbers of a money pitcher. Speaking of money, the Yanks are said to not be willing to pick up any of Johnson's salary in a trade. You would think that would make it even less likely that Arizona would be his final destination, considering the Diamondbacks seemed unwilling to pony up that kind of coin for a free agent.

Moving to San Diego would provide Johnson's best bet to bounce back. Over the past few seasons, Johnson has surrendered a higher ratio of flyballs, so a move to Petco would serve him better than Chase Field, which was the most prolific home run park in the majors last season.

The bottom line is that even though they would love to divest themselves of Johnson and all the question marks surrounding him (not to mention his $16 million salary), the Yankees are not going to trade him just for the sake of it. This deal will have to make sense.

Now if they are able to swing a sensible deal, and then consolidate it with the addition of Zito, New York will have definitely gone a long way towards offsetting all the moves Boston has made this offseason.

But will Zito be able to survive away from pitching-friendly McAfee Coliseum? If you think he was helped by that park, think again. Over the last three years, Zito was a better pitcher away from home, particularly last year, when the splits (4.71 at home vs. 2.97 on the road) were alarming. Yankee Stadium has proved itself a fine pitcher's park, so Zito should be able to hold his own there. The park may yield a few more home runs, but overall offense was restricted more by Yankee Stadium in 2006.

Zito isn't necessarily the panacea to end the Yankees' World Series drought, but he obviously would provide them with a clear upgrade over Johnson. The Rangers are still very much in the hunt for Zito, so if the Yanks are unable to complete the second half of this two-part plan, there's always four months worth of Roger Clemens waiting to be scooped up.

Let's face it: Johnson's two-year run in New York – at times a very tumultuous run – hasn't exactly been the crowning achievement of his career. Any move by the Yankees to get him and his salary off the books would almost be addition by subtraction at this point. If they can make a deal similar to the one that sent Gary Sheffield packing, the Yanks would surely be overjoyed.

Quick Hits

  • Juan Rivera, who broke his leg on Friday while playing winter ball, underwent surgery yesterday. A rod was inserted into his tibia with screws at the top and bottom of the fracture. Rivera isn't even scheduled to begin rehab for another six to eight weeks, so expecting him to be ready for Opening Day may be a stretch. He'll likely see plenty of DH duty, forcing Garret Anderson out to the field almost every day. If Rivera needs to miss time, Kendry Morales or Robb Quinlan will benefit with extra PT.

  • The Angels were uncharacteristically swift to deal with the loss of Rivera, inking Shea Hillenbrand on Tuesday to a one-year, $6.5-million contract. He'll make $6 million in 2007 and will have a $6.5 million option for 2008 that vests should he reach 600 plate appearances, a total Hillenbrand last reached in 2005. If he does not accumulate that many plate appearances, the Angels can buy him out for $500,000. The Angels were close to dealing for Hillenbrand in May before he ultimately wound up in San Francisco after his infamous blowout with Toronto manager John Gibbons in July. The 31-year-old Hillenbrand, who hit 21 homers last season, is expected to split time between first base and DH while possibly seeing some action at third for the Halos. Los Angeles was able to beat out the Yankees for Hillenbrand's services, as Hillenbrand's preference was to remain on the West Coast.

  • Damon Hollins hopes he can use a big season in Japan to get back to the big leagues. After hitting 15 homers in 121 games for the Rays last year, the 32-year-old outfielder has signed a one-year, $1-million deal with the Yomiuri Giants. He's expected to bat fifth for the Giants.

  • Didn't anyone learn a lesson last season from the sad story of Joel Zumaya, felled by "video game wrist?" Johnny Damon announced the formation of the Professional Baseball Video Game League, a league that will pit the sport's best against each other and their fans. No, this isn't a joke. Damon is the commissioner of the PBVGL for the opening season, starting this week with competition on Microsoft's Project Gotham Racing 3 for Xbox 360. The roster of players includes Corey Patterson, Rodrigo Lopez, Craig Hansen, Julian Tavarez, Matt Holliday, Willy Taveras, Prince Fielder, Josh Barfield, Derek Lowe, Seth McClung, Mike Pelfrey, Luke Hochevar and Dallas McPherson. "The league is bringing together two of my biggest passions – baseball and video games – in a way that neither baseball fans nor video gamers have seen before," Damon said. Team owners are really going to have to start putting video game injury clauses in their contracts soon.



     

    Rob Blackstien runs www.RotoRob.com, a site featuring daily fantasy sports analysis. In addition to his baseball work on the site, he contributes to Rotoworld’s basketball coverage. Rob also writes for CREATiVESPORTS.com, BaseballNotebook.com and has contributed to Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide and Fantasy Football Guide.
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