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Rob Blackstien
Offseason Lowdown
February 16, 2007
Health is Key for Cubs
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After watching Barry Zito bag a seven-year, $126-million deal this offseason, Chicago Cubs' ace Carlos Zambrano apparently had a revelation on what he's worth.

In alluding to big-money deals the Cubs doled out on free agents Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez, Zambrano said that "[Cubs general manager] Jim [Hendry] spent a lot of money. I hope he has more for 'Big Z.' If they don't sign me, sorry, but I must go. That's what Carlos Zambrano thinks."

We're not sure what's more disturbing here. The fact that Zambrano refers to himself in the third person, calls himself 'Big Z' or that he's decided that if the Cubs don't pony up the bucks with a sweet extension before Opening Day, he'll test the free agent waters.

Zambrano's ultimatum earlier this week is just the latest drama for a Cubs team that's had a busy offseason.

Skinny: In 2003, after coming within a Bartman of going to their first World Series since 1945, the Chicago Cubs have been in free fall, missing the playoffs in 2004 and dropping to 79 wins the following year. It's hard to believe they didn't bottom last season, sinking to the pit of the NL by winning just 66 games (a total that topped only Tampa Bay and KC in the entire majors). There are plenty of building blocks (Zambrano, Aramis Ramirez, Michael Barrett, Rich Hill) and the team opened its coffers for Alfonso Soriano this offseason while hiring a field taskmaster in Lou Piniella who has a reputation for building winners (although his Devil Rays days weren't exactly one for the scrapbook). But what the Cubbies need most in their quest to bounce back is good health; full seasons from Derrek Lee, Kerry Wood and especially Mark Prior will go a long way towards putting this club back in the mix for a playoff spot.

Strengths: Power pitching, contact hitting. The Cubs' pitching staff paced the NL in Ks last year with 1,250 thanks in no small part to Zambrano setting a new personal best with 210. The Big Z also tied for the NL lead with 16 wins while finishing fifth with a 3.41 ERA. No wonder he's ready to hold the team over a barrel. If nothing else, the Cubs put the ball in play last year, recording the 14th fewest Ks while winding up dead last in walks. Chicago was in the middle of the pack in homers, but figure to be among the best in the Senior Circuit this year with Ramirez, a healthy Lee and Soriano, who finished third last year with 46 jacks.

Weaknesses: Getting on base, control. It's surprising the Cubs hitters finished dead last in walks last year. Wasn't watching their pitchers issue more walks than any other NL team a good enough tutorial for them? The Cubs also finished last in saves, which wasn't shocking given how few games they won.

Key offseason acquisitions

  • The Cubs landed the biggest fish in the free agent sea when they reeled in Alfonso Soriano. It took $136 million – the fifth highest-deal in MLB history and highest since 2000 – spread out over eight years to get him, but signing a fantastic athlete and power-speed threat like Soriano will really beef up the attack. Still, he'll be 39 when this deal expires, so it has the potential to be an albatross down the road. The Cubs have waffled back and forth on whether he'll man center or be a corner fielder, but the current plan calls for Soriano to take over CF at Wrigley.


  • Lefty Ted Lilly has a 59-58, 4.60 career mark, but in this offseason of bloated pitcher salaries, that was good enough to earn him $40 million over four years. He actually could have got more had he chosen to re-sign with Toronto, but Lilly should benefit from the switch to the NL.


  • Cliff Floyd, the poster boy for WebMD, was penned for one year and $3 million with a mutual option that could push the deal to as much as $17.5 million over two years should he accumulate 550 plate appearances per season. Of course, my pet hedgehog might play center field at Wrigley before that happens. He pushes Matt Murton to a platoon, but coming off Achilles' surgery, Floyd likely has plenty of DL stints in his future, so Murton should still get his hacks.


  • The Cubs gave Ranger super sub Mark DeRosa $13 million over three years to be their second baseman. DeRosa, 32 later this month, played six positions last year and excelled when spotted properly, but as an everyday man? Well, what do you think? He's a .260/.316/.366 hitter in his career against righties; against southpaws, however, DeRosa is a .306 hitter.


  • LHP Neal Cotts, acquired from the White Sox for RHP David Aardsma and Carlos Vasquez, could wind up being a steal after he fell out of favor with the Sox because he couldn't come close to duplicating his brilliant 2005 season. He's a great bet to rebound and the Cubs plan to stretch him out in spring training, giving him a shot at the rotation. Given the starters they brought in, however, Cotts is more likely ticketed for the pen.


  • Jason Marquis is perhaps the finest example of having to overspend on starting pitching this offseason. No one expected he get anything but a one-year contract, yet despite an ERA north of 6.00 last year, he finagled a three-year, $21-million deal out of the Cubs. Marquis will settle in as the fourth starter, but is he better than Wade Miller, Angel Guzman or Sean Marshall, all much cheaper options?


  • OF Daryle Ward was penned for one year, $1.05 million with a mutual option for 2008. Look for him to spell Lee at first, see occasional action in the outfield and act as the Cubs' top pinch-hitter.


Key question: Can Lou Piniella turn this team around? Judging by a Chicago Tribune poll asking how many games the Cubs will win this year, a sense of optimism prevails among the team's fans. Of the 8,117 respondents, 38.8 percent expect the Cubs to win 80 to 89 games, while another 32.1 percent envision 90 to 99 wins. Are they justified? While the Cubs' sticks will rate among the NL's best, the team's ability to get back to .500 or beyond hinges on the pitching staff. And it is here where most of the questions facing this club lie. Will Big Z be able to stay focused if he doesn't get his extension? Will Lilly survive if he has to butt heads with Piniella? Will the 2004-05 version of Marquis return, or will it be more of the same from last season? Can Rich Hill take the next step forward? Can Wade Miller recover from shoulder surgery? Will Kerry Wood, already involved in a hot tub injury, be able to stay healthy enough to push Ryan Dempster for the closer gig? And, perhaps most important, is Mark Prior's right shoulder strong enough to survive the season? My belief is that the Cubs' pitching will be slightly better, but their offense takes a big enough jump to get this team to 80 wins. Anything more must be considered gravy.

Fantasy sleeper: No one would blame you if you had given up on Kerry Wood a long time ago, but he arrived at camp 30 pounds lighter and perhaps free of the great weight of expectation that he's carried around for years. Okay, the hot tub spill really wasn't serious, so let's try not to take it as a sign. But with Ryan Dempster's grip on the closer job hardly ironclad, Wood has a chance to emerge with more fantasy value this season than owners have seen from him since his career year in 2003.

Projected Opening Day Lineup

CF Alfonso Soriano
2B Mark DeRosa
1B Derrek Lee
3B Aramis Ramirez
RF Jacque Jones
C Michael Barrett
LF Cliff Floyd/Matt Murton
SS Cesar Izturis

Rotation

Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly
Rich Hill
Jason Marquis
Mark Prior/Wade Miller/Sean Marshall

Bullpen

Ryan Dempster, closer
Bobby Howry
Kerry Wood

Key Bench: Daryle Ward, Matt Murton, Ryan Theriot, Ronny Cedeno, Henry Blanco.

On the Horizon

  • OF Felix Pie: Despite a solid season at Triple-A last year, he needs a bit more seasoning given his winter ball struggles. The Cubs' centerfielder of the not too distant future, having turned all of 22 last week, is an exciting power-speed threat.


  • Lefty Donald Veal, just 22, took a huge step forward this year when he was dominant at Low-A Peoria (5-3, 2.69, 73 2/3 IP, 45 H, 86 K) and then even more impressive after a promotion to High-A Daytona (6-2, 1.69, 80 2/3 IP, 46 H, 88 K). Judging by his high walk totals and a boatload of wild pitches, Veal will need to sharpen his control to succeed at higher levels, but look for him to open at Double-A and possibly appear at Wrigley for a September cameo.



 

Rob Blackstien runs www.RotoRob.com, a site featuring daily fantasy sports analysis. In addition to his baseball work on the site, he contributes to Rotoworld’s basketball coverage. Rob also writes for CREATiVESPORTS.com, BaseballNotebook.com and has contributed to Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide and Fantasy Football Guide.
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