Welcome back to the Bullpen Report. While I was off sailing the Caribbean last week, Matthew Pouliot evaluated all 30 bullpens of the future in his Strike Zone column. There, he searched for potential closer candidates for each of the next three seasons, and ended by handicapping the field for each club. It's a must read for anyone in keeper leagues and those in one-year formats will want to check it out for future reference as well. You can find the AL Version here, and the NL counterpart here.
A lot has happened since I left, so let's get into it without further ado.
All closers are rated in one of the following categories: Locked In, Secure, Shaky, In Danger, Filling-in, Co-Closer or DL.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Closer: Jose Valverde (Secure)
Key setup men: Tony Pena, Brandon Lyon, Doug Slaten, Brandon Medders
Every time it looks like Valverde is at peak value and a good candidate to sell high on, he throws up a stinker within a few days and his ratios look pedestrian again. The right-hander had his ERA down to 2.53, but he gave up three runs on Monday and it jumped all the way back to 3.68 as a result. Such is life with someone as inconsistent as Valverde. However, with 18 saves, more than a strikeout per inning, and no injuries in sight, Valverde still has plenty of value right now. Maybe you won't completely maximize your profit on him, but it's time to start shopping. There's nothing wrong with banking those 18 saves and solid ratios and spreading the risk to other, more consistent players.
Valverde still has two more years of service time to kill before he hits free agency, but he's going to start getting a little expensive with all these saves in his pocket. The Diamondbacks have a closer of the future in Pena, and should the right offer come along, moving Valverde to a contender is a distinct possibility. If that happens, Pena would move into ninth inning duties with Lyon ready to step in if he falters. Given the possibility of a trade, all three players are worth speculating on right now.
Atlanta Braves
Closer: Bob Wickman (Secure)
Key setup men: Rafael Soriano, Chad Paronto, Tyler Yates
Mike Gonzalez requiring Tommy John surgery is only slightly more surprising than Roger Clemens deciding to return to the majors for one more season. In other words, it's not. With him out of the picture, those holding Soriano are in even better shape. Now, manager Bobby Cox won't have the option to use someone else in the ninth inning of a save situation. It's going to take another injury to Wickman for that to happen, but Soriano will remain next in line until he takes over the role in 2008.
Baltimore Orioles
Closer: Chris Ray (Locked In)
Key setup men: Scott Williamson, Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker
Ray's overall ERA is still a mediocre 3.65, but all of his other numbers are excellent and he's very likely to improve that ERA as the season moves on. Baez has been so bad that manager Sam Perlozzo has talked of moving him to a middle relief role, and it's likely that someone else would get the call in the event that Ray hits the disabled list. Next in line is now likely Williamson, who came off the disabled list on May 20 and has given up one run in eight innings of work on the season. He's an injury waiting to happen, but he's worth owning in AL-only formats when healthy.
Boston Red Sox
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon (Locked In)
Key setup men: Hideki Okajima, Joel Pineiro, Mike Timlin (DL)
The statistic of the month is that with both the Red Sox and Yankees' closers remaining healthy, setup man Okajima has more saves (four) than Hall of Famer Rivera (three). That just about sums up both team's seasons thus far. It's unlikely that Okajima will finish with 10 or more saves without Papelbon going on the disabled list, but he's still very valuable in AL-only formats. His stuff is better than advertised, and while his ERA is likely to go up, he's not going to get pounded as hitters start to see him multiple times.
Note: Rivera picked up his fourth save after this column was written.
Chicago Cubs
Closer: Ryan Dempster (In Danger)
Key setup men: Angel Guzman, Bob Howry, Mike Wuertz, Scott Eyre
It was foolish to ever list Dempster as Locked In on a team with Lou Piniella managing. Dempster had one bad outing, and all of the sudden two Chicago papers are reporting that Guzman is being groomed to take over closing duties. That's right, Guzman, a youngster with starting caliber stuff who looked strong after moving to the rotation, is going to replace Dempster, who's blown one save and looked dominant for the most part this year. It's almost as if Piniella and Phillies manager Charlie Manuel were dared to compete in a pitching stupid-off. There's no other logical explanation for this.
That said, these don't seem to be idle rumors. A team determined to enact a role change, justified or unjustified, will eventually find a way. Therefore, it's likely that the Cubs will begin looking for reasons to pull Dempster in the near future. Guzman has plenty of potential in the role with a quality fastball to go with two plus, but inconsistent, offerings in a slider and changeup. Dempster isn't a free agent until after the 2008 season, but Guzman is still a good player to speculate on, especially in keeper leagues. I'd expect the incumbent to hold off the youngster for at least another month, but the change seems imminent.
Chicago White Sox
Closer: Bobby Jenks (Locked In)
Key setup men: David Aardsma, Matt Thornton, Mike MacDougal, Nick Masset
Lower than normal velocity in the spring meant Jenks was a risky option, but nobody remembered to inform him. The portly right-hander is currently sporting the best ERA and WHIP of his brief career, and he looks like a much better option now than he did just two months ago.
MacDougal has all but fallen apart over the last three weeks, and it's unlikely he's next in line at the moment. Aardsma and Thornton are currently the favorites to serve as Jenks' backup, but Aardsma has also struggled of late. Manager Ozzie Guillen likes Thornton very much and he's pitched reasonably well, but the club would probably prefer to keep the left-hander in a setup role. Masset could be an option down the road, but not just yet. If Jenks went down tomorrow, I'd rank them Thornton, Aaardsma, MacDougal in likelihood of taking over. If Jenks goes down two days from now, that order may change.
Cincinnati Reds
Closer: David Weathers (Locked In)
Key setup men: Mike Stanton, Jon Coutlangus, Jared Burton, Eddie Guardado (DL)
Weathers had his worst outing of the season this past week, surrendering six runs and taking a loss against the Pirates. It's more of a blip on the radar screen than a warning sign of future problems, but his owners are stuck with the poor effort anyway. He remains locked into ninth inning duties.
Quite a few people have written in to back Guardado as a second half sleeper, but I'm just not seeing it. He's 36 years old, he had a 1.54 WHIP before going down last year, and he underwent Tommy John surgery less than a year ago. Even without the surgery I'd have strong reservations that he could pitch effectively. Add in the typical timeframe for a full recovery from the procedure he required, and I'd be shocked if he managed an ERA below 4.50. Given that Weathers has been pitching well and that Guardado isn't a long-term option, there's just not going to be any reason to make the switch.
Cleveland Indians
Closer: Joe Borowski (Secure)
Key setup men: Rafael Betancourt, Tom Mastny, Roberto Hernandez
Borowski teased us with some poor performances to start the year, but the Indians stuck with him and he's rebounded nicely. The right-hander has yielded a run in just one of his 10 outings this month, and he's got plenty of job security at the moment. Betancourt continues to excel in a setup role and is next in line. Fernando Cabrera fell from a possible closer replacement to off the list in less than a month, and he's so out of whack that the Indians won't even let him in a game right now. He's had an epic breakdown like this before, and that it's happened a second time knocks him down a fair amount in keeper leagues.
Colorado Rockies
Closer: Brian Fuentes (Secure)
Key setup men: Manny Corpas, Ramon Ramirez, LaTroy Hawkins
The Rockies are down on their knees praying that Fuentes keep pitching like he has for another eight weeks. If that happens, they'll either get quite a good haul of young players in a trade or save more money than they would have otherwise while dumping Todd Helton's contract. All of this is because Fuentes is having his best year to date, with a 2.22 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. That he's pitching well actually increases the likelihood that he's traded, making eighth-inning specialist Corpas very valuable.
Detroit Tigers
Closer: Todd Jones (Locked In)
Key setup men: Joel Zumaya (DL), Fernando Rodney (DL), Wilfredo Ledezma
Jones has given up runs in each of his last three outings, but he's suffered just one blown save in the three opportunities. His 4.22 ERA and 1.41 WHIP are now right in line with expectations. There's not chance of him being demoted, especially with Zumaya out. Rodney is currently on the DL, but he'll be back within a week and retake his position as setup man.
Florida Marlins
Closer: Kevin Gregg (Filling-in)
Key setup men: Henry Owens (DL), Taylor Tankersley, Matt Lindstrom
When Owens went on the disabled list with shoulder cuff tendonitis two weeks ago, Tankersley appeared to be the favorite for saves. However, he pitched himself out of that opportunity, allowing Gregg and his 1.99 ERA to take over. Gregg has converted all five save opportunities since and has looked excellent while doing so. He'll remain the closer when Owens returns from the disabled list in a few days. A few poor outings and the club may evaluate going back to a youngster like Owens, but it's Gregg's job to lose for now. Since he's always been a talented reliever, it wouldn't be surprising if he ran with the chance and closed for the remaining four months.
Houston Astros
Closer: Dan Wheeler (Secure)
Key setup men: Brad Lidge, Chad Qualls, Dave Borkowski
Wheeler still has just nine saves, although that's no fault of his own. The right-hander has a 3.04 ERA and stellar 0.89 WHIP, so he hasn't done anything to deserve such a poor total. Lidge continues to look like the Lidge of old as a setup man, adding pressure to Wheeler to keep performing. Given that Lidge was so bad in the closer's role, I wouldn't expect the club to mess with how things are going right now. It's likely they'll look to Lidge again if Wheeler struggles, but there are no signs of that happening. There's an outside chance a contender will take a chance on Lidge and try him as a closer after acquiring the right-hander.
Kansas City Royals
Closer: Octavio Dotel
Key setup men: Joakim Soria (DL), Joel Peralta, David Riske
Dotel, who had been out since the spring with a strained oblique, returned to action a week ago. He gave up two runs in his first outing, then pitched 2 1/3 scoreless innings over his next two appearances. The club initially wanted to ease him back into a closer's role, but that's not going to happen with Soria out. Despite experiencing some shoulder inflammation and hitting disabled list, Soria is worth holding on to. Dotel is still a risk to struggle, get injured, or be traded.
Los Angeles Angels
Closer: Francisco Rodriguez (Locked In)
Key setup men: Scot Shields, Justin Speier (DL), Darren Oliver, Dustin Moseley
Shields' early season struggles are behind him. His command has been sharper of late, walking just one batter in his last 7 1/3 innings, and the results have followed. He remains a great option in AL-only formats and likely to take over as closer in 2009 if the club can't come to terms on an extension with K-Rod.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Closer: Takashi Saito (Locked In)
Key setup men: Jonathan Broxton, Chad Billingsley, Yhency Brazoban, Chin-Hui Tsao (DL)
You wouldn't know it from Saito's performance, but the right-hander has been bothered by a sore shoulder and asked to sit out Sunday's game as a result. He's supposedly been available on Tuesday and Wednesday, although the club had no need for him. Perhaps Saito can avoid a DL stint now, but that he's having problems increases the odds for an injury down the line. Broxton was already worth using in NL-only formats, but he now needs to be stashed away in all leagues. He's a top 10 closer if he takes over.
Milwaukee Brewers
Closer: Francisco Cordero (Locked In)
Key setup men: Derrick Turnbow, Matt Wise, Carlos Villanueva
Cordero keeps plugging along, with an ERA (0.43) lower than his WHIP (0.63). He's obviously not going to keep this up, but he's worth holding out for tier 1 closer value in a trade. Turnbow has lost part of his early season magic, giving up nine runs over his last nine appearances. Wise, a consistently solid option when healthy, will be next in line if Turnbow continues to struggle.
Minnesota Twins
Closer: Joe Nathan (Locked In)
Key setup men: Juan Rincon, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier
Nathan looked a little shaky for the first few weeks of the season, but it never materialized into many runs allowed and his WHIP is rebounding nicely now. Rincon is putting more runners on base than he usually does, but he's managed to strand most of them and he likely remains next in line. Neshek has been utterly dominant with a 1.46 ERA, but he's going to have to wait his turn.
New York Mets
Closer: Billy Wagner (Locked In)
Key setup men: Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Pedro Feliciano
Wagner has given up exactly one run in three of his last five outings, but he's also struck out a pair in each game and he's hardly losing anything just yet. His ERA still stands at an impressive 1.57. Heilman is currently ahead on the depth chart, but Smith is a better candidate to be with the team next season and is also more likely to develop into a closer. He could very well be handed ninth inning duties if Wagner were to require a DL stint.
New York Yankees
Closer: Mariano Rivera (Locked In)
Key setup men: Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Proctor, Brian Bruney
Entering today, Rivera had thrown a total of seven innings in May. He's given up two runs, struck out eight, and walked one. Those are all fairly typical Rivera numbers. However, he hasn't recorded a single win or save to date in May. That he's looked better on the mound when he does pitch is a good indicator that he hasn't lost it yet, and Rivera is a strange but recommended buy-low candidate right now.
Oakland Athletics
Closer: Huston Street (Injured), Justin Duchscherer (Injured), Alan Embree (Filling-in)
Key setup men: Kiko Calero, Jay Witasik
Duchscherer was supposed to fill in for Street when the former Texan went on the disabled list with irritation of his right ulnar nerve. Instead, Duchscherer also hit the disabled list thanks to a hip condition. Embree has done a fine job filling in, recording three saves and not allowing a run since the team's pair of aces went down. Street should be back within a week, relegating Embree back to setup duties. Duchscherer's status is up in the air after his latest setback. He could be back in a week, or a month. He needs to be held onto in AL-only formats right now, but a long injury outlook might change that.
Philadelphia Phillies
Closer: Tom Gordon (Injured), Brett Myers (Injured), Antonio Alfonseca (Filling-in)
Key setup men: Ryan Madson, Geoff Geary
Myers has been nothing but a workhorse his entire career. In fact, he never required a DL stint prior to the 2007 season. Now he's out indefinitely with a right shoulder strain after converting to a reliever mid-season and then being used every other day without fail. These are not coincidences.
Gordon would reassume closing duties if he were healthy, but he was placed on the DL with a shoulder injury and is now battling an upper respiratory illness that is rather serious. Gordon is doing better, but he's not near resuming baseball activities just yet. He's likely to miss at least another two weeks and possibly longer.
That means manager Charlie Manuel will turn to former closer Alfonseca, despite his mediocre ERA and awful 1.66 WHIP. The right-hander converted his only save opportunity since the switch this past week. He's not a good bet to perform well, but he needs to be claimed in most leagues. If he's bad enough before Myers or Gordon returns, Madson or Geary would likely take part in a closer-by-committee.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Closer: Salomon Torres (Secure)
Key setup men: Matt Capps, Damaso Marte, Jonah Bayliss, Josh Sharpless
Despite eight saves during April, Torres had a rough first month after yielding nine runs in 12 innings of work. He's pitched better in May, giving up just two runs over 9 1/3 innings, but has just four saves to show for it. Still, it's enough of a turnaround that Torres has some job security now. Capps has had a poor couple of weeks, but he remains second in line.
San Diego Padres
Closer: Trevor Hoffman (Locked In)
Key setup men: Scott Linebrink, Cla Meredith, Heath Bell, Kevin Cameron
Hoffman was unavailable on Friday due to a sore arm, but he insists it's nothing and the right-hander threw scoreless outings on Saturday and Sunday. It's not worth discounting him because of the news. Meredith still has a fine 3.60 ERA, but he's given up 10 runs in 11 innings of work in May. He will rebound, but Meredith was clearly pitching over his head for the first six months of his big league career. Expect an ERA around 3.00 to go with quality peripherals.
San Francisco Giants
Closer: Armando Benitez (Shaky)
Key setup men: Brad Hennessey, Kevin Correia, Steve Kline, Jonathan Sanchez, Vinnie Chulk
Benitez's knee has been acting up again, so he's going to sit out a few games after having fluid drained from the knee on Wednesday. Hennessey picked up a save in his place on Wednesday, but Benitez should be back within a few days. However, Benitez remains an injury risk, so Hennessey is worth stashing away despite very mediocre stuff.
Seattle Mariners
Closer: J.J. Putz (Locked In)
Key setup men: Brandon Morrow, Chris Reitsma (DL), George Sherrill
Although his strikeout rate is down a little, Putz still has the excellent control that allowed him to dominate the league last year. With a 1.25 ERA and 0.65 WHIP, he's not a fluke. Morrow continues to issue too many free passes, but he also continues to miss plenty of bats and pitch out of jams with relative ease. He's likely due for a bit of an ERA correction at some point, but he's still well worth using in AL-only formats.
St. Louis Cardinals
Closer: Jason Isringhausen (Locked In)
Key setup men: Ryan Franklin, Tyler Johnson, Russ Springer
It's only 20 innings, but Isringhausen is looking as good now as he has at any point in the past. There's little reason to sell-high right now. Franklin continues to be a pleasant surprise in a setup role and remains second in line.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Closer: Al Reyes (Locked In)
Key setup men: Brian Stokes, Shawn Camp, Chad Orvella
Reyes has given up three runs over his last two outings, but his peripherals remain fine and his ERA is still an impressive 2.38. He'll be fine.
The setup duties in Tampa Bay are much more interesting, in large part because nobody has an ERA below 5.00. Stokes continues to be very inconsistent, and he's nowhere near an option to close at this point. Orvella was great in the minors, but he's looked hittable and had trouble finding the strike zone since being recalled. There's a good chance most of his struggles are mental since he keeps turning into a pumpkin once getting promoted. Should Reyes go down, the club will probably give Stokes or Seth McClung, who is still in Triple-A, another chance.
Texas Rangers
Closer: Eric Gagne (Secure)
Key setup men: Akinori Otsuka, Frank Francisco, Wes Littleton
Performance hasn't been an issue for Gagne so far this year. He's given up just one run in 11 innings while yielding five hits and striking out nine. The five walks he's issued is a little high, but it's hardly something to be all that concerned about given the rust he was still shaking off. Gagne is likely to head back to the disabled list at some point, but it looks like he'll be a quality option when healthy. Due to Gagne's likelihood of an injury combined with the possibility of a trade means Otsuka can't be dropped.
Toronto Blue Jays
Closer: Jeremy Accardo (Secure)
Key setup men: Casey Janssen, Jason Frasor, Scott Downs
Accardo is now firmly entrenched as the Blue Jays' closer after converting 5-of-6 save opportunities since taking over the role. He did give up three runs in his one blown save, but his 1.16 ERA and 24/6 K/BB ratio are still excellent and he's got a bit of job security now. Frasor has pitched better of late, but the club would likely give Janssen and his superb control a shot at ninth inning duties should Accardo go down.
Washington Nationals
Closer: Chad Cordero (Secure)
Key setup men: Jon Rauch, Jesus Colome, Luis Ayala (DL), Ryan Wagner (DL)
Cordero was inserted back into the closer's role last week, recording three saves and throwing eight scoreless innings since returning from the bereavement list. He's going to be a very valuable trade commodity if he keeps pitching this well. Rauch has given up runs in each of his last four outings. If he continues to struggle, Colome will be next in line.
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Now in his fifth season, Nate Stephens is one of Rotoworld's most tenured baseball analysts. He heads up the minor league coverage for the site while also contributing other columns and analysis. |
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