Chipper Jones has already suffered a sprained left ankle and a strained right oblique this spring. His troublsesome right foot hasn't kept him out of the lineup yet, but he readily acknowledges that he'll be playing in pain for the rest of his career. Injuries have limited the once durable star to 137, 109 and 110 games the last three years. It's a shame, because his skills are still there. He continued to play at a Hall of Fame level in 2006, hitting .324/.409/.596 when he was in the lineup. He'll probably be right around .300 with 25 homers again this year, but the absences will take a toll on his run and RBI numbers. Since he can only be counted on for 120 games or so, I have him as the NL's No. 7 third baseman, barely ahead of No. 8 Edwin Encarnacion.
One note before the notes: for those with weekend drafts, next week's columns will be posted on Friday (AL) and Saturday (NL) rather than the usual Sunday and Monday.
National League notes
Arizona - Carlos Quentin's partial labrum tear did get him dropped from $15 to $14 in the latest draft guide update, but that's only because he's likely to miss the first week, maybe two, of the season. The injury is unlikely to turn into something he can't play through, especially since it's his non-throwing shoulder that's the problem. I still like his chances of getting to 20 homers and 85 RBI this year. Scott Hairston should be a fine play in NL-only leagues while Quentin is out. … Edgar Gonzalez continued to add to his case to become the Diamondbacks' fifth starter with a strong showing on Sunday. The club could carry him initially and then try to slip him through waivers when Randy Johnson comes off the DL in mid-April. Dana Eveland and Micah Owings would be better fits for the opening that will still exist when Johnson returns. Owings, though, is probably on his way back to Triple-A. Enrique Gonzalez and Dustin Nippert also remain in the running. … Dave Krynzel could be in the same situation as Gonzalez. Since he's out of options, he's the logical replacement for Jeff DaVanon on the roster. However, there shouldn't be any need for him when both DaVanon and Quentin are healthy.
Atlanta - Kelly Johnson appears to be on the verge of being named the Braves' starting second baseman, but it's still unclear how the club will divvy up the at-bats in left field. Matt Diaz looked like the favorite for playing time entering the spring, but Ryan Langerhans has outhit him and is the better defender. Craig Wilson can also see some action out there if he gets over his sore elbow, so neither Diaz nor Langerhans looks like more than a $3-$4 player right now. … Johnson is worth going to $6-$8 to get. He doesn't have the speed to take full advantage of the leadoff spot, but he could hit .270-.280 with 15 homers and 10 steals if he keeps his job. His on-base skills should make his glove worth living with.
Chicago - Even though Mark Prior was quite a bit more impressive in his last outing, it's only a matter of time until Wade Miller is named the Cubs' fifth starter. My guess is that Miller won't last in the role; the lost velocity due to his shoulder problems has made his fastball more hittable and he's never had a very good changeup to aid in keeping left-handed hitters off balance. If he remains free of injury, Prior will probably find himself in the rotation by May 1. It's doubtful that he'll flash All-Star-type form at any point during the season, but I'd recommend taking a chance on him at $4-$5. … Matt Murton hasn't truly secured a starting job, but it looks like he will be in the lineup the majority of the time at the start of the year, with Cliff Floyd limited to playing against certain right-handers. Floyd is likely to outhit Murton against righties, but keeping Floyd in a reduced role gives him the best chance of staying healthy. Both can be considered at up to $5-$6 in NL-only leagues.
Cincinnati - The Reds didn't name Dustin Hermanson their closer last week as rumored, but it might happen before Opening Day. Even if it does, I wouldn't put Hermanson much ahead of David Weathers in the rankings. It'd be a surprise if Hermanson provided the Reds with more than 40-50 innings, and given his history, there are hardly any assurances that he'll be effective when healthy. Weathers is at least as good of a bet, and setup man Todd Coffey has looked like the club's best reliever this spring. … The Reds again seem prepared to try Adam Dunn as a No. 2 hitter. It's a very good spot for him, considering that he'll give Ryan Freel plenty of chances to steal and he'll rarely hit into double plays. Even though he probably won't stay there forever, I see Dunn as someone to target. He seems more motivated than ever before, and his price tag is down after the brutal slump he endured over the final two months of last year. … Matt Belisle seems poised to capture the fifth spot in the rotation over Kirk Saarloos and Bobby Livingston. I can see Belisle and Saarloos getting flip-flopped a few times this year.
Colorado - The Rockies didn't bother waiting until the final week to make some of their key decisions. Troy Tulowitzki was named the starting shortstop, with Clint Barmes getting sent down. Barmes still could have some fantasy value this year if he gets traded, but the Rockies made the right move here. Tulo should hit .270 with about 15 homers as a rookie. … Also decided was that Jason Hirsh and Josh Fogg would occupy the final two spots in the rotation, with Byung-Hyun Kim pitching out of the pen unless he's traded. The only real ramification here is that Kim has a little more upside that Fogg in the event of a trade, and now it's clear that he'll be the one to go if the Rockies dmake a move. Hirsh should prove to be a solid No. 4 starter right away, but that's not going to translate into fantasy value. … Finally, the Rockies chose to keep the remains of Steve Finley over Cory Sullivan. Maybe it's a wash offensively, but Sullivan is the better defender these days and is the one with a future beyond 2007. I don't support Sullivan is a regular, but he is a better option than anyone the Marlins have in camp. Maybe a fit can be found there.
Florida - The Marlins plan on naming a closer at some point before Opening Day, but there's been little to separate Matt Lindstrom, Henry Owens and Kevin Gregg so far. Owens has had the best spring of the group, but he was behind the other two and the injured Taylor Tankersley going in. Lindstrom's 4/4 K/BB ratio in 10 1/3 innings doesn't inspire as much confidence as his 0.87 ERA. Gregg has been sharp lately, giving up just three hits over six scoreless innings in his last five appearances. I still see Tankersley as the team's best reliever, and he might be a candidate for saves by May 1. Lindstrom could get the job initially. … There also wasn't any resolution to the competition in center field last week. Eric Reed has continued to play well in limited action, while Alex Sanchez has been awful with the stick but better than anticipated defensively. Alejandro De Aza has put himself in the mix, but he's not a good bet after hitting .278/.346/.374 with 27 steals in Double-A last year. GM Larry Beinfest should still be working the phones and seeking an upgrade. If he can't land one, Reed clearly deserves the nod. … Jeremy Hermida appears likely to miss the first two weeks with a bone bruise on his knee. Joe Borchard is the favorite for at-bats while he's out.
Houston - At least the Astros will be 1-for-2 if they have Fernando Nieve join Wandy Rodriguez at the back of the rotation. Rodriguez has given up seven earned runs and walked 12 in 11 2/3 innings this spring, but manager Phil Garner has to have a lefty in the rotation, regardless of whether he's any good or not (the decision to let Andy Pettitte walk over $2 million strikes again). Nieve at least has some upside, though what he also has are major questions about his elbow. I like the idea of carrying him as a sixth starter in NL-only leagues, but he's not someone who is going to give fantasy owners or the Astros six good months. ... I knocked Brad Lidge down from $25 to $22 last week, but I'm not at all sure that's enough. What provides hope is that his fastball velocity has been fine all spring. He's just been leaving both it and his slider in bad spots. I still wouldn't be surprised at all if it clicks for him and he's as valuable as any NL closer this year. However, another season like 2006 is at least as likely and any Lidge owners without Dan Wheeler around to back him up should be very worried. … The Astros cleared the way for a Luke Scott-Jason Lane platoon in right field by releasing Richard Hidalgo and demoting Hunter Pence (though Pence was really only in the mix for playing time in center). Now they just need to commit to it. Scott against righties and Lane versus lefties is the way it will likely shake down, but Garner has threatened to make one of the two an everyday player. Scott is the better bet in NL-only leagues, but there's too much uncertainty to make him at option beyond $8.
Los Angeles - I'd argue that Brett Tomko was the worst possible choice to be the Dodgers' fifth starter, but Hong-Chih Kuo was no longer an option due to a sore shoulder and Mark Hendrickson would have been a minimal upgrade. At least with Tomko there, Kuo stands a better chance of getting a spot once he's ready to return in May or June. Kuo remains worthy of a flier in NL-only leagues. He's wasn't going to pitch 180 innings anyway, so maybe shutting him down now means he'll be strong for the final four months. With Dodger Stadium aiding him, Tomko isn't such a bad spot starter in NL-only leagues or maybe a full-time guy in 4x4 leagues. … The Dodgers still haven't tried Nomar Garciaparra at third base, which would seem to suggest Wilson Betemit will have the job despite a poor spring. Andy LaRoche clearly needs to be in Triple-A. … With Jason Repko likely to miss a sizable chunk of the season due to a groin injury, the Dodgers will try to get themselves a right-handed-hitting outfielder. Matt Kemp is the only option now, and the club doesn't want to use him as a reserve. Kevin Mench and Brady Clark of the Brewers are possibilities. The Giants' Jason Ellison is another, but they should be able to do better. … Rafael Furcal believes he'll be ready for Opening Day despite an ankle sprain. If he has a setback, Wilson Valdez would probably be the choice to replace him, with Ramon Martinez staying in his utility role.
Milwaukee - That Craig Counsell will start at third base the majority of the time means the Brewers won't have their worst hitter batting second. J.J. Hardy may not be so bad up there anyway, though I think Corey Hart would be a better option. Hardy's career OBP stands at .319, but he does have a perfectly respectable walk rate and he's due to hit about 20 points higher than his career .246 average if he can stay healthy this year. Also, he possesses the ability to smack 15-18 homers. Since he's had no physical problems to speak of this spring, he could be one of the better value picks available at shortstop. … The Brewers need to move an outfielder before the week is out, and because of the difference in salaries, it's likely that Geoff Jenkins will stay and either Mench or Clark will go. Clark isn't going to have any fantasy value unless he's moved, and Mench would also be a weak play in NL-only leagues with the Milwaukee outfield as is. … Prediction of the week: Carlos Villanueva makes at least 10-15 starts this year and comes out of them with a better ERA than $42 million man Jeff Suppan.
New York - It sounds like the Mets will stick with Shawn Green even though he's hitting .136 in 59 at-bats this spring. With the way he's steadily declined, it's hard to see Green making the team regret it if he is released, and it's not like they'd be stuck without alternatives if Lastings Milledge happened to flop. Endy Chavez was a better player than Green last year, and Ben Johnson might be more than adequate given half a chance. One thing all of them have in common is that they're better defenders than Green. Plus, the Mets have the money and talent to go out and upgrade in July if they need to. Omar has been willing to gamble in the past – he just gave a two-year deal to a setup man on steroids – so why not now? Frankly, giving Green 150 at-bats to prove that he's not done would be the bigger risk. … While Mike Pelfrey earned his rotation spot, there is some cause for concern about his having struck out just five batters in 19 innings. His slider is coming along gradually, but it's not generating a bunch of swings and misses. His moving fastball is such a big weapon that he doesn't need great secondary pitches, but he better keep showing very good command if he's going to survive. As is, I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles his second time through the league. In redraft leagues, I wouldn't go beyond $4-$5 for him. I do see him developing into a long-term No. 2 starter.
Philadelphia - Freddy Garcia suffered a biceps injury on the very day the Phillies announced they were moving Jon Lieber to the pen, and Lieber then went and suffered a strained oblique in his first appearance as a reliever. The Phillies were quick to point out that Garcia's problem was in fact with the biceps and not the shoulder that he said bothered him at times last season. Still, there is reason for skepticism, especially with his velocity down even from where he was in 2006. Garcia was all too frequently a high-80s guy last year after usually working in the low-90s previously. He's turned himself into a groundball pitcher to compensate, and it seemed likely that the strategy would work even better in the NL than it did in the AL. Still, if his arm isn't sound, guts alone probably won't get him to 15 wins again. Be wary. … The switch to the bullpen is going to cut into Lieber's trade value, but the Phillies didn't like whatever offers they had received anyway. Whether he's eventually traded or not, Lieber will probably throw at least 150 innings this year, making him worthy of a roster spot in NL-only leagues. Neither Cole Hamels nor Adam Eaton is a very good bet to make 30 starts, and it's anyone guess what's really going on in Garcia's shoulder.
Pittsburgh - Neither has hit at all so far, but Jose Bautista was named the Pirates' starting third baseman over Jose Castillo. Now it looks like both could play with Freddy Sanchez (knee) likely to miss the first week of the season. If Castillo can put together a well-timed hot streak, the Pirates could quickly reverse their decision and turn Bautista back into a utilityman. Still, Bautista is pretty good bet to end up with at least 400 at-bats and 15 homers. He won't hit for average, but he could be a $7-$8 player anyway. … Despite a 9.45 ERA and a 15/14 K/BB ratio in 20 innings this spring, Tom Gorzelanny will occupy the third spot in the Pirates' rotation. I applaud the team's patience, but even being the Gorzelanny fan that I am, I wonder if he wouldn't be better served working out his command problems in Triple-A. Shawn Chacon has had a fine spring and might be able to build up some trade value with a strong April as the fifth starter. Instead, he'll work in middle relief initially. I like the idea of gambling $2 on Gorzelanny, though he'll need to be benched initially. Tony Armas Jr., who will act as the Pirates' fifth starter, is a weaker investment. … Salomon Torres' brutal spring continued when he gave up four runs in one-third of an inning on Sunday, raising his ERA to 14.21 in 6 1/3 innings. He also started slow last year, so the Pirates aren't expressing any concern publicly. With Matt Capps sporting an 11.37 ERA in his seven appearances, the club won't be wavering on its decision to make Torres the closer. Still, Torres shouldn't be anyone's top choice for saves in NL-only leagues.
St. Louis - Anthony Reyes won't pitch until the fifth game of the season, but manager Tony La Russa indicated he doesn't plan to skip any of this starters in order to keep Chris Carpenter on four days' rest. I like Reyes best of the Cardinals' non-Carpenter starters, though Adam Wainwright has narrowed the gap considerably. Maybe Reyes won't have a sub-4.00 ERA, but his WHIP will be strong and he should be good for 150-160 strikeouts. … Juan Encarnacion (wrist) is expected to open the season on the DL. Scott Spiezio will likely get most of the starts in right field while he's out, making him worth using in NL-only leagues. If Jim Edmonds (shoulder, foot) needs to join Encarnacion, So Taguchi figures to man center. Edmonds, though, was able to play Sunday and has a good chance of being in the Opening Day lineup.
San Diego - All signs point to Marcus Giles hitting leadoff. Maybe this is the year he embraces the role, but in his career, he has a 717 OPS in 709 at-bats as a leadoff man and an 859 mark in 1,360 at-bats while batting second. I'd prefer to see Brian Giles leading off with Marcus behind him, but no one asked, as usual. With little RBI potential, Marcus currently ranks eighth among NL second baseman (ninth in 4x4 leagues). Even if he does a very good job reaching base, it's going to be tough for him to score 100 runs with Petco holding the offense back. … Khalil Greene's sore finger hasn't prevented him from hitting .426 with five homers this spring. The average doesn't mean much, but it's good to see the power, even if there's no way he's maintaining that kind of pace outside of Arizona. He got a slight boost in the rankings last week and now stands as the NL's No. 11 shortstop. Still holding him back is the fact that injuries have limited him to 121 games each of the last two years.
San Francisco - With a 1.50 ERA and a 7/0 K/BB ratio in six innings, Armando Benitez is pitching like he doesn't want to leave San Francisco. It remains a very good idea to back him up with Brian Wilson in fantasy leagues, if for no other reason that he's likely to spend at least a few weeks on the DL, but he's looking like a pretty good bet for 25 saves. Even though he seemed to struggle in every appearance last year, he still finished with a 3.52 ERA, and he's showing better stuff now than he did then. … That Barry Bonds is going to open the season batting third instead of fourth shouldn't make much of a difference in his value. The loser in Bruce Bochy's revised lineup is Rich Aurilia, who was expected to hit third before Bonds was moved up. Now he could bat fifth behind Ray Durham. … With Jason Ellison and Lance Niekro both out of options and little room left for Mark Sweeney, the Giants could make a couple of minor deals this week. Ellison is more likely than Niekro to be the object of some team's desire. He could have a little fantasy value if he lands in the right situation.
Washington - Things suddenly cleared up in Washington over the weekend. The rotation is expected to consist of John Patterson, Shawn Hill, Jerome Williams, Matt Chico and Jason Simontacchi, though Simontacchi will miss the first two or three weeks with a groin injury, leaving Jason Bergmann or Rule 5 pick Levale Speigner to fill in. First base will go to Dmitri Young after Travis Lee requested his release, and Nook Logan's groin injury means Ryan Church and Chris Snelling will keep battling for at-bats into the regular season, with Kory Casto likely making the team as a reserve. … I don't think any of the non-Patterson starters will be worth using in NL-only leagues right away. Williams is probably the best bet of the group for 2007. Chico should be solid enough in 2008, but he's being rushed now. Hill is only of much interest in a 4x4 leagues. … Young will have to stay ahead of Robert Fick and Casto to remain a starter. He's worthy of the first look, and he still have $10-$12 upside, even in RFK Stadium. If he could be had for $2-$3, it'd be worth taking a chance on him. … Snelling is only interesting at $2-$3. His skills don't translate very well to fantasy baseball, and it's doubtful that he'd be healthy enough to reach 400 at-bats even if he did overtake Church. … Logan will almost certainly get his job back when healthy, though the Nationals should be very patient, as he has nothing to offer if his legs aren't 100 percent. He remains a possibility at $2 or so. The two weeks off now just means it will be two weeks later when the Nationals realize he's a lousy option as a regular.
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Matthew Pouliot is the Executive Editor of RotoWorld.com and has been featured in ESPN The Magazine. For comments, e-mail him at matthewpouliot@hotmail.com. |
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