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Matthew Pouliot
Strike Zone
November 19, 2007
Offseason Trade Candidates
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Miguel Tejada (Orioles) - With Tejada apparently willing to play third base for a contender, it looks like a good time for the Orioles to move on. The Cubs, Angels, Dodgers, White Sox, Giants, Blue Jays, Indians, Astros and Phillies all have fits on the left side of the infield and could conceivably afford Tejada's $13 million salary for each of the next two seasons. The Orioles should be looking for a young shortstop and pitching in return.

Possibilities
To Cubs for LHP Sean Marshall, SS Ronny Cedeno and OF Eric Patterson
To Angels for SS Erick Aybar, 1B Kendry Morales and RHP Trevor Bell
To Giants for LHP Jonathan Sanchez, RHP Brad Hennessey and SS Manny Burriss

Prediction - Traded to Giants


Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, Rich Harden (Athletics) - If the A's decide to rebuild, they'll trade at least one and probably two starters, with Chad Gaudin also a possibility to go. Haren, the AL ERA leader for much of last year, would command the highest price tag. He'll earn just $16.25 million over the next three seasons. Blanton is arbitration eligible for the first time and is under control for three more years. It's likely that he'll make $3.5 million-$4 million next year. Harden is set to earn $4.5 million in 2008. There's a 2009 option on his contract worth $7 million, but if he gets hurt again, that can be declined and he'd have to settle for less in arbitration. He'll then be a free agent after 2009. Since he's pitched just 72 innings the last two years, Harden is the best bet to stay.

Possibilities

Haren to Mets for OF Lastings Milledge, OF Fernando Martinez and RHP Aaron Heilman
Haren to Dodgers for OF Matt Kemp, 3B Andy LaRoche and RHP James McDonald
Haren to D'Backs for 1B Conor Jackson, OF Carlos Gonzalez and RHP Dustin Nippert
Blanton to Mets for OF Lastings Milledge and RHP Aaron Heilman
Blanton to Dodgers for OF Matt Kemp
Blanton to Phillies for 2B Adrian Cardenas, LHP J.A. Happ and RHP Joe Bisenius
Harden to Red Sox for INF Jed Lowrie, RHP Michael Bowden and LHP Hunter Jones

Prediction - Haren traded to Mets, Others stay


Jason Bay (Pirates) - The Pirates don't need to drop the salary and they have much more need for offense than additional young pitching, so why trade Bay? It'd only be a sensible idea if something about his knee or another physical problem made it unlikely that he'd bounce back in 2008. Bay, who had an OPS over 900 three straight years before falling all the way to .247/.327/.418 last season, is signed for two more years at a total of $13.25 million. The Pirates would probably want a younger outfielder in return and could also look for a catcher to eventually replace Ronny Paulino. The Twins were thought to be interested, though they probably explored the deal before landing Craig Monroe.

Possibilites
To White Sox for 3B/OF Josh Fields, LHP Gio Gonzalez and OF Ryan Sweeney
To Indians for RHP Adam Miller, OF Franklin Gutierrez and C Kelly Shoppach
To Mets for OF Lastings Milledge and RHP Philip Humber
To Athletics for RHP Joe Blanton and OF Travis Buck

Prediction - Stays


Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Noah Lowry (Giants) - I doubt that either Cain or Lincecum is going anywhere unless the Giants swing a Miguel Cabrera deal. Crawford wouldn't be a terrible return for Cain, but I wouldn't make that trade if I ran the Giants. If the Yankees offered Phil Hughes and another quality piece for Cain, that'd probably be worth doing. It's not happening, though. Lowry is the one the Giants would be willing to move for a non-elite talent. The 27-year-old left-hander is signed for $6.75 million over the next two years, and there's a $6.25 million club option for 2010. That makes him fairly attractive no matter how much his WHIP fell off last season.

Possibilities
Lowry and RHP Brad Hennessey to Mariners for C Jeff Clement and OF Wladimir Balentien
Lowry to Cardinals for OF Chris Duncan and RHP Mitchell Boggs
Lowry to Royals for OF Chris Lubanski and SS Jeff Bianchi

Prediction - Lowry traded to Mariners, Others stay


Dontrelle Willis (Marlins) - The Marlins hardly fear another fan backlash at this point, so they could deal both Cabrera and Willis in the same winter. They could even pair the two in a single deal if it'd get them the players they wanted from the Dodgers. Still, with Willis' value well down, even in this market, they may figure they're better off holding on to the left-hander, at least until the deadline. Willis isn't due much of a raise of a raise from the $6.45 million he earned in a disappointing 2007 and is under control for two more seasons, so it's worth gambling that he'll stay healthy and rebuild some value.

Possibilities
To Tigers for RHP Eulogio De La Cruz, INF Michael Hollimon and OF Brent Clevlen
To Mariners for OF Adam Jones and C Rob Johnson
To Mets for OF Carlos Gomez and RHP Philip Humber

Prediction - Stays


Jon Garland (White Sox) - Garland finished 10-13 last season after back-to-back 18-win campaigns, but he was pretty much the same pitcher as in 2006. With ERAs somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.50 five of the last six years, it's his terrific 2005 that stands out as the fluke. Available because he's a free agent after making $12 million next season and the White Sox would like to free up money to sign either Torii Hunter or Aaron Rowand, Garland figures to be of interest to the Yankees, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Rangers, Phillies, Mets and Cardinals.

Possibilities
With RHP David Aardsma to Diamondbacks for OF Carlos Gonzalez and RHP Kyler Newby
To Mariners for OF Wladimir Balentien and LHP Ryan Feierabend
With RHP Nick Masset to Rangers for RHP Eric Hurley and SS Joaquin Arias

Prediction - Traded to Diamondbacks


Chad Cordero (Nationals), Brian Fuentes (Rockies) - With Brad Lidge gone to Philadelphia, Cordero and Fuentes are the top closers left available in trade talks. Cordero will probably make $13 million-$14 million in arbitration the next two years before he's eligible for free agency. Fuentes is arbitration eligible for the last time and is due $6 million-$7 million next year. The Rockies say they're content to keep Fuentes as a setup man, but they may figure that his money will be needed to re-sign Matt Herges and either Kaz Matsui or Yorvit Torrealba. Cordero has been available at the right price for a couple of years now, but no one has been willing to pay Jim Bowden's ransom. It probably won't happen this winter, either.

Possibilites
Cordero to Brewers for LHP Manny Parra, OF Tony Gwynn Jr. and SS Alcides Escobar
Cordero to Astros for 2B Chris Burke, RHP Felipe Paulino and OF Josh Flores
Fuentes to Indians for 2B Josh Barfield and LHP Scott Lewis
Fuentes to Astros for 2B Chris Burke and RHP Felipe Paulino
Fuentes to Mariners for 2B Jose Lopez and LHP Eric O'Flaherty
Fuentes to Brewers for LHP Chris Capuano

Prediction - Cordero stays, Fuentes traded to Indians


Juan Pierre, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier (Dodgers) - The Dodgers seem poised to add Aaron Rowand, Andruw Jones or Torii Hunter, and if that happens, it's a safe bet that one of their remaining outfielders will go in a deal. The smart move would be to pay someone to take on the $36.5 million that Pierre is owed over the next four years. However, it's entirely possible that they'll move Kemp in a trade for Miguel Cabrera or a star pitcher. If nothing works out there, Ethier could go in a lesser deal, with Pierre taking over in left field.

Possibilities
Pierre and $20 million to Marlins for OF Brett Carroll
Pierre and $18.25 million to Giants for LHP Steve Kline
Ethier to Orioles for 3B Melvin Mora
Ethier to Rangers for RHP Frank Francisco and RHP Armando Galarraga
Ethier to White Sox for 3B Joe Crede and RHP Mike MacDougal

Prediction - Pierre, Kemp stay, Ethier traded to Rangers


Continue story ...

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Matthew Pouliot is the Executive Editor of RotoWorld.com and has been featured in ESPN The Magazine. For comments, e-mail him at matthewpouliot@hotmail.com.
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