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Matthew Pouliot
Strike Zone
November 26, 2007
Arizona Fall League Wrapup
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Presented this week is the first of two columns looking at what's in store for the prospects of the Arizona Fall League.

Mesa Solar Sox

Mitch Boggs - RHP Cardinals - DOB: 01/09/83
11-7, 3.84 ERA, 167 H, 117/62 K/BB in 152 1/3 IP (AA Springfield)
0-2, 5.21 ERA, 19 H, 14/8 K/BB in 19 IP (AFL Mesa)

Boggs was viewed as a raw talent coming out of the University of Georgia, but he's made quick progress since being taken in the fifth round in 2005, posting ERAs under 4.00 at three levels while being handled aggressively by the Cardinals. Boggs consistently works in the low-90s. Unfortunately, neither his slider nor his changeup grades out as above average yet, though he may get there with the slider. Both pitches are decent enough that he should be able to avoid a permanent move to the bullpen in the short-term. However, that could be where he ends up. It's where he's most likely to help the Cards if he's called on to make his major league debut next season.

Josh Flores - OF Astros - DOB: 11/18/85
.325/.392/.500, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 47/23 K/BB, 25 SB in 246 AB (A+ Salem)
.219/.284/.323, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 40/18 K/BB, 14 SB in 192 AB (AA Corpus Christi)
.292/.358/.438, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 15/5 K/BB, 4 SB in 48 AB (AFL Mesa)

The Astros acquired Michael Bourn thinking that he'd be their center fielder for a long time, but Flores could have something to say about that as soon as 2009. A fourth-round pick in 2005, Flores nearly matches Bourn's blazing speed and already bests him in power. He's still learning center field after being converted from shortstop, but he has the tools to be a more-than-adequate defender. One cause for concern is that he had an OPS 250 points higher against lefties last season, though if he only turns out to be a platoon partner for Bourn, that wouldn't be such a bad thing for the Astros. He figures to open next year in Double-A and make his major league debut as a reserve in September. With Josh Anderson gone to Atlanta, there's a slight chance he could be called on earlier.

Sam Fuld - OF Cubs - DOB: 11/20/81
.290/.372/.388, 2 HR, 27 RBI, 38/41 K/BB, 10 SB in 335 AB (AA Tennessee)
.269/.397/.442, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 5/9 K/BB, 2 SB in 52 AB (AAA Iowa)
.000/.333/.000, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 3/3 K/BB, 0 SB in 6 AB (Chicago - NL)
.402/.492/.626, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 15/17 K/BB, 10 SB in 107 AB (AFL Mesa)

Fuld was little more than an afterthought in the Cubs' organization as late as August, but he received a September callup because of Angel Pagan's injury and Eric Patterson's punitive demotion and that helped his case for a spot on an AFL roster. It was in Arizona that he made a name for himself, batting .402 and leading the league with a .492 OBP and a .626 SLG. At 5-foot-10 and 180 pounds, Fuld, a Stanford product, doesn't generate much home run power. However, he makes an awful lot of contact and still maintains a respectable walk rate. It's just too bad he doesn't throw right-handed, because he has a second baseman's build. As an outfielder, he's a weak option in center and he doesn't offer the kind of bat one looks for in a corner guy. Perhaps he'll put together a career as a reserve anyway, but he probably won't ever offer much in the way of fantasy value.

Sean Gallagher - RHP Cubs - DOB: 09/03/85
7-2, 3.39 ERA, 54 H, 54/24 K/BB in 61 IP (AA Tennessee)
3-1, 2.66 ERA, 33 H, 37/13 K/BB in 40 2/3 IP (AAA Iowa)
0-0, 8.59 ERA, 19 H, 5/12 K/BB in 14 2/3 IP (Chicago - NL)
0-0, 1.13 ERA, 12 H, 13/4 K/BB in 16 IP (AFL Mesa)

Gallagher had a 2.71 ERA in 15 starts in Double-A in 2006, but the Cubs still weren't up for challenging him with Triple-A right away last season. He went back to the Southern League for two months, only to get called up to the majors and thrown into the bullpen with the club feeling the need to experiment. He was a failure there right from the start, but he was recalled three more times over the rest of the season On Sept. 3, he allowed three runs in two innings with the Cubs already well behind and that was it. He didn't pitch until the AFL, when he had a 1.13 ERA in 17 innings while working primarily as a reliever. One wouldn't know it from the way the Cubs have handled him so far, but Gallagher projects as a solid starter. He works in the low-90s and shows a very good curve. His changeup disappeared from his arsenal while he was working out of the pen, but it's a decent enough pitch. With Sean Marshall and Kevin Hart ahead of him on the depth chart, Gallagher is due to open next year in Triple-A. He should be recalled when the Cubs need him as a starter, not before. It's possible he'll be an asset before the year is out.

Steve Hammond - LHP Brewers - DOB: 04/30/82
7-9, 4.69 ERA, 163 H, 109/43 K/BB in 142 IP (AA Huntsville)
1-3, 5.87 ERA, 24 H, 16/7 K/BB in 23 IP (AFL Mesa)

Hammond couldn't quite match Yovani Gallardo when they were teammates practically all year long in 2006, but he wasn't all that far behind, finishing 11-11 with a 2.72 ERA between the FSL and Southern League. In 2007, Gallardo left him completely in the dust. Hammond's deceptive delivery didn't seem to do as much for him the more he faced the same lineups, and he still hasn't turned his slider into a strikeout pitch. Now it seems that he'll likely end up as a reliever, which is what he was projected as before his breakthrough season. First, he'll probably begin next year in the rotation at Triple-A Nashville. If he's called on during the season, it'd most likely be to join Brian Shouse as a lefty out of the pen.

Mark Hamilton - 1B Cardinals - DOB: 07/28/84
.290/.348/.520, 13 HR, 49 RBI, 48/20 K/BB 1 SB in 221 AB (A+ Palm Beach)
.250/.318/.383, 6 HR, 41 RBI, 54/24 K/BB, 1 SB in 248 AB (AA Springfield)
.171/.370/.220, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 9/13 K/BB, 0 SB in 41 AB (AFL Mesa)

That the Cardinals used a second-round pick on a college first baseman was one of the surprises of the 2006 draft. Hamilton, who hit 20 homers in 235 at-bats in his final year at Tulane, figured to go to an AL team or at least one with an opening at first base. He's not an option at any other position, and many think his natural position is DH. It's Hamilton's ability to hit righties that figures to carry him to the majors. He'll probably never be a big OBP guy, but like Chris Duncan, he could be a threat to hit 25-30 homers if given 450 at-bats in a platoon role. A return to Double-A is in the cards for 2008. If he starts piling up numbers, he'll be a nice piece of trade bait for St. Louis.

Jarrett Hoffpauir - 2B Cardinals - DOB: 06/18/83
.345/.420/.527, 7 HR, 33 RBI, 18/26 K/BB, 3 SB in 203 AB (AA Springfield)
.300/.394/.416, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 21/29 K/BB, 2 SB in 190 AB (AAA Memphis)
.236/.368/.255, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 4/12 K/BB, 3 SB in 55 AB (AFL Mesa)

Hoffpauir didn't show much ability to hit for average or any home run power in his first go-rounds at Single-A Palm Beach and Double-A Springfield. The step forward came last season, as he started off strong in Double-A and put together a solid showing in Triple-A. Only in the AFL did the wheels come off, as he could manage just a .236/.368/.255 line. Hoffpauir's history of mediocre averages would seem to suggest that he struggles with strikeouts, but he has a 143/194 K/BB ratio in 1,505 at-bats since the Cardinals made him a sixth-round pick in 2004. Unfortunately, he doesn't offer quite as much range at second base as the team would like. He's turned himself into a viable alternative should Adam Kennedy fail to bounce back from a horrible 2007. However, he's not someone for whom the team should be making an effort to work into the starting lineup. With only 10-homer power and minimal steal potential, he has little fantasy upside.

Matt LaPorta - OF Brewers - DOB: 01/08/85
.259/.286/.519, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 8/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 27 AB (R Helena)
.318/.392/.750, 10 HR, 27 RBI, 22/7 K/BB, 0 SB in 88 AB (A- West Virginia)
.241/.351/.500, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 28/17 K/BB, 1 SB in 112 AB (AFL Mesa)

Snubbing the Red Sox after a subpar junior season and returning to the University of Florida paid off for LaPorta, who went seventh overall to the Brewers in the 2007 draft. It was a surprise pick, as most teams viewed him strictly as a first baseman and the Brewers didn't exactly have a need there. They're hoping he can handle left field in the majors, but the jury is still out. There are many fewer questions about his bat. LaPorta is a patient hitter with 35-homer potential. He may not hit for particularly high averages in the majors, but he should be a force from the fourth or fifth spot in the lineup. Between the minors and the AFL, where he tied for the league lead, he hit 18 homers in just 227 at-bats last season. He's likely to begin 2008 in Double-A, but the Brewers haven't ruled out making him their left fielder right away. There aren't many better fantasy prospects.

Jed Lowrie - 2B/SS Red Sox - DOB: 04/17/84
.297/.410/.501, 8 HR, 49 RBI, 58/65 K/BB, 5 SB in 337 AB (AA Portland)
.300/.356/.506, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 33/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 160 AB (AAA Pawtucket)
.163/.236/.245, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 14/10 K/BB, 3 SB in 98 AB (AFL Mesa)

Lowrie, a 2005 supplemental first-round pick out of Stanford, was labeled a disappointment after his first full season in the Boston system, though he did pick it up late in the year. Another slow start followed last season, as he hit .170 in April, but he was one of the top performers in the minors the rest of the way. A switch-hitter with a good eye at the plate, he'd likely be good for 40 doubles per season if given a chance to take aim at the Green Monster half the time. On defense, the 6-foot-0, 180-pounder has lasted longer at shortstop than anyone thought he would. He still projects best as a second baseman, but he's decent enough to serve as a stopgap at short should Julio Lugo get hurt next year. The Red Sox, though, may use him as trade bait. A deal would give him his best chance of landing a starting job before the end of 2008.

Tommy Manzella - SS Astros - DOB: 04/16/83
.238/.305/.296, 0 HR, 24 RBI, 30/19 K/BB, 5 SB in 223 AB (A+ Salem)
.289/.343/.382, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 40/19 K/BB, 10 SB in 289 AB (AA Corpus Christi)
.302/.345/.377, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 12/4 K/BB, 1 SB in 53 AB (AFL Mesa)

A teammate of Hamilton's at Tulane, Manzella was Houston's third-round pick in 2005. Because of his stellar defense, he's often compared to the veteran ahead of him on Houston's depth chart at shortstop, Adam Everett. However, he's not quite that much of a difference maker with the glove, and there's been little so far to suggest he'll match Everett's meager offensive output. Including the AFL season, he managed just one homer in 504 at-bats last season. He can occasionally pull a ball into the gap for a double, but he has no power at all the other way. Manzella will have to get a little stronger -- preferably without losing any range at shortstop -- if he's going to make it in the majors. Since Geoff Blum and Chris Burke would be massive defensive downgrades, it's possible Manzella will receive a look if Everett gets hurt again next year.

Stuart Pomeranz - RHP Cardinals - DOB: 12/17/84
0-0, 5.79 ERA, 4 H, 4/1 K/BB in 4 2/3 IP (R GCL Cardinals)
1-2, 6.52 ERA, 12 H, 5/2 K/BB in 9 2/3 IP (A+ Palm Beach)
2-0, 0.64 ERA, 9 H, 3/5 K/BB in 14 IP (AFL Mesa)

Pomeranz missed most of last season following March surgery to repair a frayed labrum, but he pitched effectively in the AFL, even though he didn't record a strikeout in any of his final four starts. A 2003 second-round pick, Pomeranz offers a low-90s fastball and decent curve when he's at his best. From what I understand, his velocity wasn't in that territory in Arizona. It's doubtful that he'll make it in the majors as a starter, but a career as a reliever can't be ruled out. The Cardinals have left him available for the Rule 5 draft.

Mitch Stetter - LHP Brewers - DOB: 01/16/81
0-0, 1.50 ERA, 4 H, 9/0 K/BB in 6 IP (R AZL Brewers)
0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0 H, 2/0 K/BB in 1 IP (AA Huntsville)
1-0, 4.30 ERA, 8 H. 19/5 K/BB in 14 2/3 IP (AAA Nashville)
1-0, 3.60 ERA, 2 H, 4/2 K/BB in 5 IP (Milwaukee)
1-0, 0.00 ERA, 8 H, 20/3 K/BB in 12 2/3 IP (AFL Mesa)

Stetter's opportunity might not have come last season if not for fellow lefty Joe Thatcher's departure in the Scott Linebrink trade, but he overcame his elbow troubles in time for a September callup and impressed both then and in the AFL. Lefties were 1-for-21 with 15 strikeouts and one walk against him during the fall. Stetter averages 85 mph with his fastball, so he'll probably never get righties out consistently. However, his slider is good enough for him to put together a career as a specialist if he can stay healthy. It looks like he'll battle Randy Choate for a job alongside Brian Shouse in Milwaukee's pen next spring.

Continue story ...

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Matthew Pouliot is the Executive Editor of RotoWorld.com and has been featured in ESPN The Magazine. For comments, e-mail him at matthewpouliot@hotmail.com.
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