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Matthew Pouliot
Strike Zone
December 3, 2007
AFL Wrapup (Part 2)
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Here's the second column looking at the prospects of the Arizona Fall League.

Peoria Javelinas

Adam Carr - RHP Nationals - DOB: 04/01/84
3-1, 10 Sv, 1.81 ERA, 30 H, 65/38 K/BB in 49 2/3 IP (A+ Potomac)
1-0, 2 Sv, 1.64 ERA, 7 H, 13/9 K/BB in 11 IP (AA Harrisburg)
0-0, 0 Sv, 3.18 ERA, 8 H, 10/4 K/BB in 11 1/3 IP (AFL Peoria)

Carr wanted to play first base coming out of Oklahoma State in 2006, but no one was interested despite some very impressive numbers (he had 34 homers in 435 at-bats). The Nationals ended up grabbing him in the 18th round with the intention of using him as a reliever, and their $1,000 investment has the potential to pay big dividends if Carr can just cut down on the walks. The 6-foot-1 right-hander throws in the mid-90s with regularity, and his slider appears to be well on its way to developing into an above average pitch. With better command, he'll likely get a chance to make his major league debut before the end of next season. A future as a closer can't be ruled out.

Kory Casto - 3B-OF Nationals - DOB: 12/08/81
.246/.334/.384, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 106/54 K/BB, 4 SB in 411 AB (AAA Columbus)
.130/.158/.167, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 17/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 54 AB (Washington)
.281/.418/.453, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 13/12 K/BB, 1 SB in 64 AB (AFL Peoria)

Casto received a chance to open last season as the Nationals' primary left fielder with Nook Logan hurt, but he didn't last long, and because of his poor play in Triple-A, he never saw the majors again after being sent down in mid-May. Even though he has a massive roadblock ahead of him in Washington, Casto continued to play third base about half the time at Columbus. His normally excellent walk rate dropped significantly, and he struggled to hit balls out of International League ballparks. He did bounce back to post an 871 OPS in the AFL, but even that came with just one homer in 64 at-bats. He's looking like little more than a quadruple-A player at this point. Perhaps he has one year left to prove himself before he goes from being regarded as a prospect to minor league-veteran status, but even if he reaches his upside, he'd be a lesser version of Ryan Church.

Yung Chi Chen - 2B Mariners - DOB: 07/13/83
.333/.294/.467, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 3/0 K/BB, 1 SB in 15 AB (AAA Tacoma)
.339/.444/.424, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 10/12 K/BB, 2 SB in 59 AB (AFL Peoria)

Chen entered the AFL not having played a game in six months following left shoulder surgery, but one would never know that from the way he performed, as he hit .339/.444/.424 in 59 at-bats. In a full season in 2006, Chen batted .324/.380/.468 with 26 steals for Single-A Inland Empire and Double-A San Antonio. He'd probably hit for average right away in the majors, though it'd come without much power. Defense can also be an issue, as he lacks terrific range at second base. He's played third in the past, but he doesn't have a very good arm. Chen will enter 2008 as the Mariners' best alternative at second base should Jose Lopez stumble again or get hurt. The key to him having a meaningful career as a regular is maintaining his current range throughout his twenties. If he tries to bulk up and add some power, he might be worse off for it.

Jeff Clement - C Mariners - DOB: 08/21/83
.275/.370/.497, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 88/61 K/BB, 0 SB in 455 AB (AAA Tacoma)
.375/.474/.813, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3/3 K/BB, 0 SB in 16 AB (Seattle)
.269/.367/.481, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 13/7 K/BB, 0 SB in 52 AB (AFL Peoria)

Rushed to Triple-A just a year out of USC, Clement, the third overall pick in the 2005 draft, struggled initially, hitting .257/.321/.347 at the level in 2006. His second attempt last year went more according to plan, and during a brief look in the majors in September, he hit a game-tying homer off Indians closer Joe Borowski on Sept. 26 and a walkoff shot against the Rangers just two days later. Now the Mariners have to decide whether to trade him to upgrade their pitching, carry him as a part-time player or send him back to Triple-A and let him continue to catch. Clement is never going to be an above average defender behind the plate, and some teams believe he projects better as a first baseman. The Mariners continue to view him as a catcher and could have him replace Kenji Johjima in 2009. However, he might be their best DH option in the meantime. Given 500 at-bats next year, Clement would probably bat .250-.260 with 20-25 homers and a solid walk rate. That'd make him a top-10 fantasy catcher right away. However, there's a good chance that he's due for another month or two at Tacoma before being recalled.

Dexter Fowler - OF Rockies - DOB: 03/22/86
.273/.397/.367, 2 HR, 23 RBI, 64/44 K/BB, 20 SB in 245 AB (A+ Modesto)
.224/.325/.308, 0 HR, 17 RBI, 28/14 K/BB, 4 SB in 107 AB (AFL Peoria)

Fowler established himself as the Rockies' latest center fielder of the future by hitting .296/.373/.462 with 43 steals at low-A Asheville in 2006. Moved up in 2007, he continued to get on base, but his power evaporated and he began striking out a lot more before a broken hamate bone knocked him out of action in June. He didn't return until the AFL, and he struggled then, needing eight hits in his final five games just to finish at .224/.325/.308 in 107 AB. The injury deserves some of the blame, and Fowler is still an exciting prospect. A switch-hitter with a very good idea of what he's doing at the plate (Harvard was interested in him as a basketball player), he projects as a major league leadoff man. He's also an excellent defender in center. The Rockies figure to test him with Double-A to begin 2008, and if he hits, he'll be a candidate to step in if Willy Taveras gets hurt. His defense and speed will make him a logical September callup even if Taveras remains healthy.

Brett Gardner - OF Yankees - DOB: 08/24/83
.300/.392/.419, 0 HR, 17 RBI, 32/33 K/BB, 18 SB in 203 AB (AA Trenton)
.260/.343/.331, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 43/21 K/BB, 21 SB in 181 AB (AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)
.343/.433/.380, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 17/17 K/BB, 16 SB in 108 AB (AFL Peoria)

A slap hitter and top-notch basestealer, Gardner offers just enough offensively to perhaps make it as a team's starting center fielder against right-handers. It's just not going to happen for the Yankees. Gardner was 58-for-70 on the basepaths in 2006 and 55-for-62 last season, including his 16-for-17 showing in the AFL. He doesn't hit left-handers, and he's never going to show power. Still, his willingness to take a walk may make him a better version of Jason Tyner. The Yankees could have use of him as a reserve before next year is out. If dealt to a team like the Marlins, he'd immediately become a top fantasy sleeper because of his steal potential.

Sung Ki Jung - RHP Braves - DOB: 08/06/79
0-1, 22 Sv, 1.15 ERA, 22 H, 49/12 K/BB in 39 IP for A+ Myrtle Beach)
0-1, 1 Sv, 1.93 ERA, 9 H, 8/1 K/BB in 9 1/3 IP (AA Mississippi)
0-0, 2 Sv, 3.97 ERA, 13 H, 15/7 K/BB in 11 1/3 IP (AFL Peoria)

Back in the U.S. after three years of mandatory service in the South Korean army, Jung established himself as a pretty intriguing relief prospect by striking out 57 while allowing just 31 hits in 48 1/3 innings in the minors. The 28-year-old has a high-sidearm delivery that makes him deceptive, and he shows a pretty good slider to go along with his high-80s fastball. The Braves could figure that one righty sidearmer (Peter Moylan) is enough for their pen, but if they're willing to take a look at another, Jung will be a candidate to debut in the first half of next season.

Justin Maxwell - OF Nationals - DOB: 11/06/83
.301/.389/.579, 14 HR, 40 RBI, 57/26 K/BB, 14 SB in 209 AB (A- Hagerstown)
.263/.338/.491, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 65/22 K/BB, 21 SB in 228 AB (A+ Potomac)
.269/.296/.500, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 8/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 26 AB (Washington)
.207/.305/.324, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 33/16 K/BB, 15 SB in 111 AB (AFL Peoria)

The oft-injured Maxwell put together a mostly healthy season in 2007 and was rewarded with a callup from A ball to the majors in September. A 2005 fourth-round pick out of Maryland, Maxwell shows major league power and plays a quality center field. Besides durability, his strikeout totals are his biggest flaw as a prospect. Maxwell has a long swing that will likely prevent him from hitting for average in the majors unless he makes a change. Perhaps the power-speed combination will make him an adequate regular anyway, but he could use a full year between Double- and Triple-A in 2008. If called on before September, expect an average in the .240 neighborhood and subpar run and RBI numbers to go along with the occasional homer and steal.

Juan Miranda - 1B Yankees - DOB: 04/25/83
.264/.348/.464, 9 HR, 50 RBI, 60/29 K/BB, 1 SB in 250 AB (A+ Tampa)
.265/.352/.480, 7 HR, 46 RBI, 46/23 K/BB, 0 SB in 196 AB (AA Trenton)
.295/.423/.551, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 18/16 K/BB, 0 SB in 78 AB (AFL Peoria)

Although no one was really sure how old he was, Miranda got a $2 million contract from the Yankees in Dec. 2006, two years after he defected from Cuba. With some rust to shake, he was sent to Single-A Tampa initially and got off to a slow start there, but he showed a quality bat from May on, delivering 15 homers in 359 AB between Tampa and Double-A Trenton and then batting .295/.423/.551 in 78 AB in the AFL. If Miranda is truly 24, as he claims, then it's realistic to think he'll develop into a platoon first baseman at the major league level. He hit .278/.366/.500 versus righties in the minors last season and .400/.534/.733 in 45 at-bats against them in the AFL. His glove won't help his case for playing time, but he's also not enough of a liability to be locked into DH duties. Odds are that he'll open next year back in Double-A, but if the Yankees think he's ready for the International League, they probably won't let Eric Duncan's presence stand in his way.

Garrett Mock - RHP Diamondbacks - DOB: 04/25/83
0-2, 4.70 ERA, 11 H, 8/1 K/BB in 7 2/3 IP (R GCL Nationals)
1-0, 0.00 ERA, 3 H, 5/1 K/BB in 6 IP (A+ Potomac)
1-5, 5.79 ERA, 66 H, 41/28 K/BB in 51 1/3 IP (AA Harrisburg)
1-2, 4.78 ERA, 26 H, 21/11 K/BB in 26 1/3 IP (AFL Peoria)

Mock looked like a better prospect than Matt Chico when both were traded from the Diamondbacks to the Nationals for Livan Hernandez in Aug. 2006, but while Chico proved to be Washington's most reliable starter last season, Mock struggled to a 5.12 ERA after returning from offseason knee surgery. He was better in the AFL, at least until an awful final outing took his ERA from 2.31 to 4.78. Before he began dealing with knee problems in 2006, Mock generated grounders with his low-90s sinking fastball and picked up strikeouts on cutters and changeups. He'll need to rediscover some lost velocity if he's going to succeed as a third or fourth starter. There's little standing in his way in Washington, so if he gets off to a fast start in Triple-A, expect to see him join Chico in the rotation soon.

Charle Morton - RHP Braves - DOB: 10/12/83
4-6, 4.29 ERA, 80 H, 67/37 K/BB in 79 2/3 IP (AA Mississippi)
4-1, 2.57 ERA, 15 H, 20/8 K/BB in 21 IP (AFL Peoria)

The results still haven't been there in the minors, but Morton did turn some heads in the AFL with a 2.57 ERA in six starts. Five of the six earned runs he gave up came in one outing, and he struck out 13 over 10 scoreless innings in his last two starts. Morton throws in the mid-90s and uses a curve as his No. 2 pitch. Because he still walks plenty of batters, he's incapable of working deep into games and the Braves have had him split time between the pen and the rotation in the majors. The strong showing in the AFL probably will prevent Atlanta from giving up on him as a starter for now, but if he's going to help in 2008, it's more likely to happen as a reliever.

Jordan Schafer - OF Braves - DOB: 09/04/86
.372/.441/.636, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 31/16 K/BB, 4 SB in 129 AB (A- Rome)
.294/.354/.477, 10 HR, 43 RBI, 95/40 K/BB, 19 SB in 436 AB (A+ Myrtle Beach)
.324/.395/.429, 1 HR, 16 RBI, 25/12 K/BB, 10 SB in 105 AB (AFL Peoria)

Schafer showed few signs of fulfilling his promise while batting .228/.281/.368 in his first year and a half as a pro, but the 2005 third-round pick took off last season, earning a quick promotion to the Carolina League and then putting up fine numbers in an environment that has typically favored pitchers. Schafer offers great defense in center field and a promising left-handed bat with 20-homer potential. He does strike out quite a bit, and southpaws with quality breaking balls give him fits, though that's typical for someone his age. One other flaw is that his plus speed has yet to make him a quality basestealer, as he was caught on 15 of his 38 attempts last season. While the Braves haven't ruled out carrying him on Opening Day, the negatives suggest that he needs one more year in the minors. He projects as a long-term regular and top-of-the-order hitter, but given his checkered past -- he didn't always live up the hype before he was drafted, either -- the Braves should make him do it again before they hand him a job.

Matt Tuiasosopo - 3B Mariners - DOB: 05/10/86
.260/.371/.404, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 113/76 K/BB, 4 SB in 446 AB (AA West Tenn)
.293/.396/.390, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 22/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 82 AB (AFL Peoria)

The Mariners' tendency to push their prospects doesn't seem to have helped Tuiasosopo, who received a big bonus in 2004 to forgo a scholarship to play quarterback at Washington. Marques' younger brother has just 23 homers in nearly 1,500 minor league at-bats and has been moved off shortstop to third base, causing some to write him off as a non-prospect. However, he made real progress in his second stint in Double-A, especially when it came to getting on base. Tuiasosopo is adept at hitting liners the other way, and now that he's getting a better grasp on waiting for his pitch, he could take another step forward next year. His defense at third base remains shaky, but he has the range and arm to be above average in time. If he gets to the point at which he can yank the occasional inside fastball into the seats, he could be a major league regular. Just 21, he still has plenty of time to develop.

Steven White - RHP Yankees - DOB: 06/15/81
1-0, 3.65 ERA, 13 H, 11/2 K/BB in 12 1/3 IP (A+ Tampa)
6-4, 3.34 ERA, 85 H, 55/32 K/BB in 91 2/3 IP (AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)
0-1, 6.23 ERA, 19 H, 11/6 K/BB in 17 1/3 IP (AFL Peoria)

With a 3.66 ERA in 3 ½ minor league seasons and more than 30 Triple-A starts under his belt, White is about as ready as he's ever going to be. Holding him back is that he's a flyball pitcher without a major league outpitch. It doesn't help that he's in the system of a $200 million team, but the Yankees ran through a bunch of pitchers last year and still never turned to him. White might be of more use in relief, assuming that he'd add a couple of ticks to his 90-92 mph fastball. His improved curve helped him hold right-handers to a .198 average and one homer in Triple-A last season. Left-handers were at .313, suggesting that he'd struggle to survive as a starter.

Corey Wimberly - 2B Rockies - DOB: 10/26/83
.268/.323/.348, 4 HR, 33 RBI, 52/19 K/BB, 36 SB in 365 AB (AA Tulsa)
.407/.462/.508, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 5/5 K/BB, 7 SB in 59 AB (AFL Peoria)

While Jayson Nix was putting himself back on the radar as the MVP in Team USA's World Cup victory, Wimberly was also doing everything he could to force the Rockies to look at him as a potential replacement for Kaz Matsui by hitting .407/.462/.508 in 59 at-bats in the AFL. Generously listed at 5-foot-8, Wimberly is a singles hitter from both sides of the plate with the speed to take second any time he reaches base. That he's error-prone at second base and he hits lefties better than righties will probably result in him becoming a utilityman, rather than a regular, in the majors. Still, if he gets off to a fast start in Triple-A next year, his speed will make him a sleeper for fantasy purposes.

Continue story ...

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Matthew Pouliot is the Executive Editor of RotoWorld.com and has been featured in ESPN The Magazine. For comments, e-mail him at matthewpouliot@hotmail.com.
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