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Matthew Pouliot
Strike Zone
February 5, 2008
Top 10 Prospects - AL East
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This is the first of six columns looking at each club's top 10 prospects. The AL East is covered below and will be followed by the NL East next week. Once all of the divisions have been featured, I'll turn the lists into an overall top 150.

Players with more than 50 innings pitched, 130 at-bats or 45 non-September days on an active roster are excluded from the lists below. I also don't include anyone with significant experience in Japan.

Baltimore Orioles

1. Matt Wieters - C - DOB: 05/21/86 - ETA: April 2009
.283/.364/.415, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 15/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 106 AB (HWL Honolulu)


As hapless as the Orioles sometime appear, they did do one big thing right last year, drafting Wieters and Jake Arrieta despite their bonus demands and then getting them signed. Of course, it helped that they freed up money by giving away their second- and third-rounders to bring in Danys Baez and Chad Bradford. They also declined to offer LaTroy Hawkins arbitration and secure themselves a supplemental first-rounder.

Wieters, the fifth overall pick, immediately became the class of Baltimore's system after signing just minutes before the Aug. 15 deadline. He's compared to Jason Varitek because he's a switch-hitter out of Georgia Tech. During his college career, he hit .359 with 35 homers and a 108/152 K/BB ratio in 704 at-bats. He should be able to muscle at least 20 homers per years in the majors. Hitting for average might be an issue, but his patient approach will lead to solid OBPs even if he bats .250-.260. On defense, he'll be solidly above average, but probably less than a Gold Glover. He's polished enough that he could survive in the majors this year if necessary. He figures to see action by September at the latest, and Ramon Hernandez could be cleared out of the way so that he can take over as a regular in 2009.

2. Billy Rowell - 3B - DOB: 09/10/88 - ETA: 2011
.273/.335/.426, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 104/31 K/BB, 3 SB in 352 AB (A- Delmarva)


Rowell hit .328/.415/.503 in his pro debut after being drafted ninth overall in 2006, but he wasn't very effective as an 18-year-old in full-season ball. The left-handed hitter did finish with a solid .299/.358/.480 line against right-handers. The power especially was pretty impressive for someone so young. However, he hit .185/.258/.247 versus lefties. Rowell, who missed the first month and a half with a strained oblique, has at least as much to prove defensively as he does offensive, as it's questionable whether he'll last at third. Since he's error-prone and he's going to slow down as he fills out, he might fit better at first. There's an awful lot to like about his potential -- he should develop 30-homer ability -- but he needs to improve his approach, especially versus lefties.

3. Chorye Spoone - RHP - DOB: 09/16/85 - ETA: May 2009
10-9, 3.26 ERA, 108 H, 133/67 K/BB in 152 IP (A Frederick)


Spoone, who sported 90/80 K/BB ratio in 129 IP in the Sally League in 2006, was the Orioles' most improved player in 2006. What made him especially intriguing was that he got nearly three outs on the ground for every one through the air last season. Spoone throws 92-94 mph and shows a pretty good curve. He's also made progress with his changeup. Since he has more upside than Garrett Olson and a better chance or reaching it than Radhames Liz or Brandon Erbe, expect him to start drawing a lot more notice this season.

4. Garrett Olson - LHP - DOB: 10/18/83 - ETA: Now
9-7, 3.16 ERA, 95 H, 120/39 K/BB in 128 IP (AAA Norfolk)
1-3, 7.79 ERA, 42 H, 28/28 K/BB in 32 1/3 IP (Baltimore)


A steady lefty out of Cal Poly, Olson averaged three strikeouts per walk at every level until arriving in the majors last July. He was wild for the Orioles, but he still fanned 28 in 32 1/3 innings. With an 88-92 mph fastball and an above average slider, he projects as a fourth starter or maybe something a little more. The strained forearm that ended his 2007 season doesn't appear to be a major concern going forward.

5. Troy Patton - LHP - DOB: 09/03/85 - ETA: June 2008
6-6, 2.99 ERA, 96 H, 69/33 K/BB in 102 1/3 IP (AA Corpus Christi)
4-2, 4.59 ERA, 44 H, 25/11 K/BB in 49 IP (AAA Round Rock)
0-2, 3.55 ERA, 10 H, 8/4 K/BB in 12 2/3 IP (Houston)


The prize from the Miguel Tejada trade might not be. Patton remained fairly effective last season, but after fanning 303 batters in 294 1/3 innings to begin his pro career, he struck out just 94 in 151 1/3 innings. Also, including the three he allowed in the majors, he gave up 18 homers, two more than his previous career total. Patton's fastball averaged 88-91 mph, rather than the old 90-93 mph, and his curveball didn't have the same bite it did previously. Also, he missed time at the end of the season with biceps tendinitis. He'll be dropping significantly after coming in at No. 42 in the Midseason Top 150. He looks like fourth-starter material right now.

6. Nolan Reimold - OF - DOB: 10/12/83 - ETA: Sept. 2008
.233/.410/.433, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 4/6 K/BB, 0 SB in 30 AB (R GCL Orioles)
.306/.365/.565, 11 HR, 34 RBI, 47/17 K/BB, 2 SB in 186 AB (AA Bowie)
.245/.331/.453, 6 HR, 23 RBI, 33/11 K/BB, 2 SB in 108 AB (AFL Phoenix)


Reimold missed most of the first half of last season with a strained oblique, but he put up nice numbers when healthy for Double-A Bowie. He was less impressive in the Arizona Fall League. Reimold has to cut back on the strikeouts against right-handers if he's going to make it as a regular outfielder. He has 25- to 30-homer power and he's an asset defensively in a corner, so he if can hit .260, he should prove to be pretty useful. The Orioles could give him a look this summer if they eventually part with Luke Scott.

7. Radhames Liz - RHP - DOB: 10/06/83 - ETA: Aug. 2008
11-4, 3.22 ERA, 101 H, 161/70 K/BB in 137 IP (AA Bowie)
0-2, 6.93 ERA, 25 H, 24/23 K/BB in 24 2/3 IP (Baltimore)


Rushed from Double-A to the majors, Liz was able to have some success as a reliever (1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 IP) for the Orioles at the end of last season, though he was a failure as a starter (11.49 ERA in four outings). Liz has closer-type stuff in the form of a mid-90s fastball and a hard curve. The Orioles aren't giving up on him as a starter yet, but neither his changeup nor his command has come along, and they do have an obvious need at the end of games with Chris Ray set to miss the season. Liz figures to open the season in Triple-A Norfolk's rotation, but it might not be long before he gets a long look as a short reliever.

8. Brandon Erbe - RHP - DOB: 12/25/87 - ETA: 2010
6-8, 6.26 ERA, 127 H, 111/62 K/BB in 119 1/3 IP (A Frederick)


Erbe entered last year as the Orioles' top prospect after going 5-9 with a 3.22 ERA, 88 H, 133/47 K/BB in 114 2/3 IP for low Single-A Delmarva as an 18-year-old in 2006. His 2007 was a bust, but it's not like he was awful all season. He had a 3.18 ERA in April and a 2.61 ERA during June. Even while posting a 7.19 ERA after the break, he had a 60/27 K/BB in 56 1/3 innings. Part of the problem was that the Orioles wanted him relying less on his mid-90s fastball. Since he's still very young and apparently healthy, he could quickly reemerge as a top prospect this year.

9. Brandon Snyder - 1B/3B - DOB: 11/23/86 - ETA: 2011
.283/.354/.422, 11 HR, 58 RBI, 107/44 K/BB, 0 SB in 448 AB (A- Delmarva)
.378/.398/.544, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 23/5 K/BB, 0 SB in 90 AB (HWL Honolulu)


Snyder was a shortstop and a catcher in high school. The Orioles used him at the latter position after making him the 13th overall pick in the 2005 draft, but it never seemed likely that he'd stick there. A torn labrum in his shoulder repaired in 2006 ruled him out as a catcher for 2007, and the move to draft Wieters seemed to guarantee that he wouldn't be moving back in 2008. The Orioles tried Snyder as a third baseman in Hawaii with rather encouraging results. If it turns out he can't cut it there, he's probably looking a permanent move to first. A .323 average from July on at Delmarva last season looks like a sign that he's about to break through and start putting up quality numbers.

10. Jake Arrieta - RHP - DOB: 03/06/86 - ETA: June 2009
1-0, 0.00 ERA, 8 H, 16/7 K/BB in 16 IP (AFL Phoenix)


Arrieta, a TCU product, received late first-round money from the Orioles after sliding to the fifth round in the draft. His impressive debut in the Arizona Fall League came as a reliever, but he projects as a nice middle-of-the-rotation starter with his low-90s fastball and sharp slider. It's possible that he'll reach the majors before the end of 2008, though if he did, that'd probably mean things didn't go so well with guys like Hayden Penn, Olson and Patton.


Next five: RHP Jim Hoey, 1B-3B Scott Moore, RHP Pedro Beato, RHP Bob McCrory, RHP David Hernandez

Easily the deepest list the Orioles have had in the time I've been doing this. McCrory is a significantly better prospect than he was a year ago, yet he drops a spot. Hernandez, who had a 168/47 K/BB ratio in 145 1/3 innings in high-A ball, probably would have ranked ninth on last year's list. The club may have just one top-notch prospect, but it says a lot that Hoey still projects as a quality setup man and can't crack the top 10.


2007 top 15: Brandon Erbe, Billy Rowell, Nolan Reimold, Garrett Olson, Pedro Beato, Radhames Liz, Jim Hoey, Brandon Snyder, Jeff Fiorentino, Keiron Pope, Ryan Adams, Pedro Florimon, Bob McCrory, Val Majewski, Jim Johnson

2006 top 15: Nick Markakis, Hayden Penn, Adam Loewen, Nolan Reimold, Garrett Olson, Val Majewski, Brandon Snyder, Jim Johnson, Brandon Erbe, Jeff Fiorentino, Radhames Liz, Sendy Rleal, Aaron Rakers, Chris Britton, David Haehnel

2005 top 10: Nick Markakis, Adam Loewen, Hayden Penn, John Maine, Val Majewski, Jeff Fiorentino, Chris Ray, Mike Fontenot, Jacobo Sequea, Walter Young

2004 top 10: Denny Bautista, Erik Bedard, Adam Loewen, Matt Riley, John Maine, Nick Markakis, Don Levinski, Val Majewski, Daniel Cabrera, Mike Fontenot

2003 top 10: Erik Bedard, Luis Jimenez, Rich Stahl, Matt Riley, Darnell McDonald, Daniel Cabrera, Dustin Yount, Steve Bechler, Rommie Lewis, Tripper Johnson

Continue story ...

Pages: 1  2  3  4  5 



 

Matthew Pouliot is the Executive Editor of RotoWorld.com and has been featured in ESPN The Magazine. For comments, e-mail him at matthewpouliot@hotmail.com.
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