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Matthew Pouliot
Strike Zone
February 11, 2008
Top 10 Prospects - NL East
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Up this week is the second column of six looking at each club's top 10 prospects. The National League East is covered below. The American League Central follows next week.

National League East

Atlanta Braves

1. Jordan Schafer - OF - DOB: 09/04/86 - ETA: April 2009
.372/.441/.636, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 31/16 K/BB, 4 SB in 129 AB (A- Rome)
.294/.354/.477, 10 HR, 43 RBI, 95/40 K/BB, 19 SB in 436 AB (A+ Myrtle Beach)
.324/.395/.429, 1 HR, 16 RBI, 25/12 K/BB, 10 SB in 105 AB (AFL Peoria)


A .228/.281/.368 hitter in his first year and a half as a pro, Schafer seemed like a long shot to fulfill the potential he showed when Baseball America rated him the nation's top 13-year-old in 2000. He finally started to put it together in low-A ball last and held on to most of his gains after arriving in the pitcher-friendly Carolina League. Schafer plays exceptional defense in center field, and his swing generates 20-homer power. Strikeouts may hold him back as a potential top-of-the-order guy. He does walk a fair amount, but he's not going to hit for a very good average unless he sits versus lefties. Fortunately, he'll get at least one more year to work on his approach versus breaking balls and his basestealing technique after the Braves picked up Mark Kotsay. He's long on potential, but he's been a disappointment more often than not in the past.

2. Jason Heyward - OF - DOB: 08/09/89 - ETA: 2013
.296/.355/.556, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 4/2 K/BB, 1 SB in 27 AB (R GCL Braves)
.313/.353/.375, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 5/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 16 AB (R Danville)


The Braves went with history and selected a Georgia high school product 14th overall in the 2007 draft. In this case, it didn't look like a reach at all. In fact, they might have gotten the bargain of the first round, Rick Porcello excepted. Heyward's build and powerful swing suggest he'll be a 35-homer guy someday, and he's quite disciplined for a high school product. The Braves moved him from center to right after drafting him. He should be above average there in time, but he still figures to end up in left if Jeff Francoeur proves to be a permanent fixture in Atlanta. He's the best bet of any of Atlanta's prospects to develop into a star.

3. Gorkys Hernandez - OF - DOB: 09/07/87 - ETA: 2011
.293/.344/.391, 4 HR, 50 RBI, 69/36 K/BB, 54 SB in 481 AB (A- West Michigan)


Overshadowed by Cameron Maybin in Detroit's system, Hernandez has quite a bit of potential as a leadoff-hitting center fielder. His 735 OPS as a 19-year-old in full-season ball was quite impressive, and he was 54-for-65 stealing bases. His success didn't carry on over the winter, as he hit .157 with no extra-base hits in 51 at-bats in Venezuela, but he's so young that it's not a big deal. Hernandez isn't ever going to develop much power, though he should be good for his fair share of doubles and triples. He doesn't strike out very often, so he should be able to hit for average at the highest levels. White his walk rate will never be any better than average, he's not up there swinging at everything. With his strong defense in center working in his favor, he should develop into a fine major leaguer, albeit one who will probably be overrated after he establishes himself.

4. Brent Lillibridge - SS - DOB: 09/18/83 - ETA: Aug. 2008
.275/.355/.387, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 60/20 K/BB, 14 SB in 204 AB (AA Mississippi)
.287/.331/.436, 10 HR, 41 RBI, 59/20 K/BB, 28 SB in 321 AB (AAA Richmond)


Lillibridge, a fourth-round pick of the Pirates in 2005, drew notice with a .419 OBP at two stops in A-ball in 2006. The Braves were much more aggressive with him after picking him up in the Adam LaRoche deal, and he handled the challenge fairly well. Particularly encouraging was that he played better at Richmond than he did in Double-A. Still, his walk total dropped from 87 to 40 and his isolated slugging went from .175 to .135. The Braves were impressed his play at shortstop, but he projects better at second base or in center field. With Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson ahead of him and Schafer behind, he might not have much of a say on where he ends up. Perhaps he'll be a Ryan Freel-type utilityman. The Braves are prepared to carve out of a role for him this year, though it might not happen until after the break.

5. Brandon Jones - OF - DOB: 12/10/83 - ETA: May 2008
.293/.368/.507, 15 HR, 74 RBI, 84/44 K/BB, 12 SB in 365 AB (AA Mississippi)
.300/.363/.453, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 36/17 K/BB, 5 SB in 170 AB (AAA Richmond)
.158/.190/.211, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 8/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 19 AB (Atlanta)


Completely healthy for the first time, Jones hit .295/.367/.490 between Double- and Triple-A last season. He's strong enough to add a few homers, and he does a surprisingly good job in lefty-lefty matchups, suggesting that he's capable of being a full-time player in the majors. It is troubling that his athleticism hasn't made him a better defensive outfielder or basestealer. The Braves gave up on him as a center field and stationed him in left throughout last year. He was a respectable 17-for-24 stealing bases, but he has the potential to do better. In winter ball, he was just 2-for-9 in 41 games. A little more experience in Triple-A clearly wouldn't hurt him at age 24. The Braves plan to give him a chance to battle Matt Diaz for playing time in spring training, but it's possible they'll send him down for the start of the year.

6. Jair Jurrjens - RHP - DOB: 01/29/86 - ETA: July 2008
7-5, 3.20 ERA, 112 H, 94/31 K/BB in 112 2/3 IP (AA Erie)
3-1, 4.70 ERA, 24 H, 13/11 K/BB in 30 2/3 IP (Detroit)


While it could be argued that he was the better of the two properties acquired in the Edgar Renteria deal, Jurrjens ranks behind Hernandez here. He was able to jump from Double-A to the majors as a 21-year-old and do respectable work in seven starts for the Tigers, but he did experience some shoulder soreness late in the year for the second season in a row and he doesn't appear to have as much room for growth as most pitchers his age. If the arm problems were a fluke, his low-90s fastball, curveball and changeup are good enough to make him a fourth starter or maybe a No. 3. It would be nice if he missed a few more bats, but he handles left-handers fairly well and he gets a few more grounders than most. He'll likely battle Jo-Jo Reyes to become the first starter called up by the Braves.

7. Tommy Hanson - RHP - DOB: 08/26/86 - ETA: July 2009
2-6, 2.59 ERA, 51 H, 90/26 K/BB in 73 IP (A- Rome)
3-3, 4.20 ERA, 53 H, 64/32 K/BB in 60 IP (A Myrtle Beach)


Hanson, a near-miss from the top 15 a year ago, had no problem cracking the list this year after adding a couple of mph to a fastball that now tops out at 95. His curve ranks as the best breaking ball in the Braves' system, and he's made steady progress with his changeup. Unfortunately, he doesn't get a lot of action on his heater and gives up a lot of flyballs as a result. Still, his command should be good enough to make sure most of the homers he allows are solo shots. He could prove to be Atlanta's long-term closer, though it'd be for the best if he remained in the rotation and developed into a No. 3.

8. Eric Campbell - 3B - DOB: 08/06/85 - ETA: 2010
.221/.312/.406, 14 HR, 49 RBI, 48/36 K/BB, 6 SB in 298 AB (A Myrtle Beach)


I'll stick with Campbell in Atlanta's top 10 for now, but he will drop from the overall top 150. The 2004 second-round pick was the team's No. 3 prospect after hitting .296/.335/.517 with 22 homers and 18 steals in the Sally League in 2006. After an aborted move to second base, he suffered a thumb injury that cost him most of the first two months of last season. He struggled after returning and got himself into further trouble with attitude problems and a lack of hustle. He ended the season on the suspended list following an incident in which he reportedly knocked over a female in the clubhouse, though his teammates defended him and said he did nothing wrong. Campbell has plenty of power potential, pretty good range at third and doesn't fan particularly often. Let's see what happens this year.

9. Cole Rohrbough - LHP - DOB: 05/23/87 - ETA: 2010
3-2, 1.08 ERA, 20 H, 58/8 K/BB in 33 1/3 IP (R Danville)
2-0, 1.29 ERA, 13 H, 38/12 K/BB in 28 IP (A- Rome)


A draft-and-follow signed last May, Rohrbrough recorded nearly three strikeouts for every hit allowed in his pro debut. The 6-foot-3, 205-pound southpaw throws in the low-90s and has a curve that no one in the low minors could touch. His changeup needs refinement, but he's a legitimate prospect as a starting pitcher. If the Braves want to get aggressive, they could have him open the season in high-A ball.

10. Cody Johnson - 1B - DOB: 08/18/88 - ETA: 2011
.305/.374/.630, 17 HR, 57 RBI, 72/26 K/BB, 7 SB in 243 AB (R Danville)


Many were skeptical after the Braves drafted Johnson 24th overall in 2006, and he did nothing to change that while hitting .184/.260/.281 in the GCL in his pro debut. That showing resulted in the decision to have him open 2007 in extended spring training, with a return to Rookie ball to follow in June. Obviously, he was much better this time, clubbing 40 extra-base hits in just 243 at-bats. He also posted a decent walk rate and went 7-for-7 in steals. Still, he did fan 72 times. Johnson uses an awfully long swing to generate his exceptional power. If he can shorten it up a bit and continue to hit homers, he'll develop into a major league regular. He's a long shot, but his upside gets him a spot anyway.


Next five: RHP Julio Teheran, RHP Manny Acosta, LHP Jeff Locke, SS Brandon Hicks, OF Josh Anderson

Jo-Jo Reyes, who just missed qualifying, would have ranked one spot ahead of Jurrjens. … The Braves sacrificed some outstanding talent to bring in Mark Teixeira, but they still have a lot of quality in the 10-20 range. Kala Kaaihue and Steve Evarts fell out of the top 15 even though neither did hurt his stock after ranking 12th and 13th last year. Also, three very intriguing relief prospects (Sung Ki Jung, Kris Medlen and Jose Ortgeano) failed to crack the top 15. … Teheran, who is from Columbia, was a highly sought-after international signing last year and ended up with the largest bonus given to any of the pitchers. … Acosta turns 27 in May, but he seems poised to make it as a setup man after debuting last August. … Locke, a 2006 second-round pick, had a 74/8 K/BB ratio in 61 innings in Rookie ball.


2007 top 15: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison, Eric Campbell, Elvis Andrus, Joey Devine, Brent Lillibridge, Jo-Jo Reyes, Brandon Jones, Anthony Lerew, Yunel Escobar, Chase Fontaine, Kala Kaaihue, Steve Evarts, Van Pope, Cory Rasmus

2006 top 15: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Joey Devine, Chuck James, Elvis Andrus, Anthony Lerew, Yunel Escobar, Brandon Jones, Eric Campbell, Beau Jones, Jake Stevens, Macay McBride, Matt Harrison, Scott Thorman, Jeff Lyman, Martin Prado

2005 top 10: Andy Marte, Jeff Francoeur, Kyle Davies, Jake Stevens, Wilson Betemit, Kelly Johnson, Brian McCann, Macay McBride, Anthony Lerew, Ryan Langerhans

2004 top 10: Adam Wainwright, Andy Marte, Wilson Betemit, Jeff Francoeur, Macay McBride, Kelly Johnson, Bubba Nelson, Dan Meyer, Adam LaRoche, Andy Pratt

2003 top 10: Wilson Betemit, Adam Wainwright, Kelly Johnson, Macay McBride, Andy Marte, Matt Belisle, Jeff Francoeur, Bubba Nelson, Jung Bong, Brett Evert

Continue story ...

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Matthew Pouliot is the Executive Editor of RotoWorld.com and has been featured in ESPN The Magazine. For comments, e-mail him at matthewpouliot@hotmail.com.
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