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Matthew Pouliot
Strike Zone
November 19, 2008
Free Agency Preview - Hitters
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Outfielders

Manny Ramirez (Dodgers) - It looks like agent Scott Boras is prepared to let this one drag out, but that might be a poor strategy in this case. The further removed we get from Ramirez's incredible 2 ½ month run for the Dodgers, the more everyone will start to remember just how he orchestrated his exit from Boston. Ramirez will certainly get his money, but he'll probably have to settle for a three- or four-year deal if he wants to play for an immediate contender. With the big spenders more interested in Teixeira at the moment, it's hard to tell just who will join the Dodgers as the finalists for his services. The Yankees, Angels, Mets and Phillies have yet to rule him out, and it's possible the Giants, Nationals or Orioles will decide to make a huge run.

Previous prediction: Phillies - four years, $80 million
New prediction: Giants - four years, $88 million

Adam Dunn (Diamondbacks) - While it's still very early, we're once again seeing little attention paid to Dunn, the only player in the majors to hit at least 40 homers in each of the last five seasons. No one wanted him at the trade deadline before the Diamondbacks finally picked him up in August, and it's possible that the long-term deal he deserves will remain out of reach in his first go at free agency. Arizona doesn't have the money to re-sign him. The one GM that might really want him, Jim Bowden, has already created an outfield logjam by picking up Josh Willingham. Unless the Mets, Braves or White Sox step up with surprising bids, he could well take a one-year deal from a team like the Indians or Yankees.

Previous prediction: Indians - one year, $18 million
New prediction: Indians - one year, $16 million

Bobby Abreu (Yankees) - Perhaps he's slowing down, but Abreu is still a fine all-around player and that's not likely to change over the next two or three seasons. For what it's worth, he's younger than either Ramirez or Blake. The Yankees will probably choose to move on, but the Cubs or Mets may step forward with a two- or three-year deal. If not, Abreu could always choose to accept arbitration.

Previous prediction: Mets - two years, $28 million
New prediction: Cubs - two years, $30 million

Pat Burrell (Phillies) - Burrell may be inconsistent from month to month, but he keeps putting up the same numbers every year and averaging right around 150 games per season. He appears worthy of a three-year deal at age 32, and he doesn't need to become an American League DH just yet. The Phillies could face competition from NL East rivals Atlanta and New York as they attempt to keep him, and he'd be a great fit for Tampa Bay's lineup if the team could come up with the cash. It's anticipated that he'll want to stay on the East Coast.

Previous prediction: Braves - three years, $40 million
New prediction: Phillies - three years, $33 million

Raul Ibanez (Mariners) - Ibanez has averaged a .291-26-113 line the last three years, so it's not surprising that he's commanding serious attention. However, he's set to turn 37 in June and he's a bigger liability defensively than either Ramirez or Burrell. He doesn't necessarily need to become a DH, but he'd likely be quite a bit more valuable at first base than in left field. Of course, that's not expected to prevent the Mets and Cubs from bidding.

Previous prediction: Angels - two years, $20 million
New prediction: Mets - two years, $24 million

Milton Bradley (Rangers) - All Bradley did last season was lead the American League with a .436 OBP and a 999 OPS. The problem is that he did primarily as a DH, and even then, he managed to play in just 126 games. Bradley has taken part in 130 games once in his career, and there are serious questions about whether he'll ever again be able to serve as a full-time outfielder. If he's only an option for AL teams, then the Blue Jays, Rangers and Rays look like the best bets to sign him.

Previous prediction: Rays - three years, $30 million
New prediction: Rays - two years, $20 million

Ken Griffey Jr. (White Sox) - Griffey intends to keep playing, but he won't be any team's top priority after he lost nearly 100 points of OPS on his way to a .249/.353/.424 season in 2008. On the plus side, he has played in 140 games two years in a row. The Braves could do a whole lot worse in left field. A return to Seattle might be a possibility, but it's hard to see how it's in either party's best interests.

Previous prediction: None
New prediction: Braves - one year, $7 million

Juan Rivera (Angels) - The sleeper of the outfield class, Rivera hit .310/.362/.525 for the Angels in 2006 before blowing out his knee playing winter ball. He was limited to 43 at-bats in 2007, and he struggled while being used inconsistently last year, though he did improve in the second half. He should be good for 20 homers next year if he lands in the right situation.

Previous prediction: Mariners - two years, $11 million
New prediction: Mariners - two years, $11 million

Jim Edmonds (Cubs) - A complete bust for the Padres in early going, Edmonds rebounded to hit .256/.369/.568 in 250 at-bats for the Cubs. He's below average in center field these days, and he shouldn't start against left-handers. However, he's probably worth about $8 million on a one-year deal. There's talk of the Yankees signing him to take over in center field. Alternatively, the Brewers could trade Mike Cameron to the Yankees and then sign Edmonds, giving them the additional left-handed bat they need.

Previous prediction: Reds - one year, $6 million
New prediction: Yankees - one year, $8 million

Garret Anderson (Angels) - The Angels declined Anderson's $14 million option and are prepared to let him move on after 15 seasons. Anderson hasn't reached 20 homers or driven in 100 runs since 2003. He's had an 800 OPS just once since then, and that happened in 108 games in 2007. Anderson probably won't have trouble landing a starting job, but he should play the rest of his career on one-year deals.

Previous prediction: None
New prediction: Rockies - one year, $6 million

Barry Bonds (FA) - If it didn't happen in 2008, it almost certainly won't in 2009.

Previous prediction: San Francisco federal court - 15 charges
New prediction: Same

Mark Kotsay (Red Sox) - Kotsay looks like a weaker option than Edmonds as a stopgap center fielder, but his leadership and toughness will probably earn him another starting job. If not, he'll be prized as a bench player. He really hurt the Red Sox offensively in the postseason, but he did play an outstanding first base.

Previous prediction: None
New prediction: White Sox - one year, $4.5 million

Rocco Baldelli (Rays) - Forced to decide back in March, the Rays declined to pay $4 million to hold on to Baldelli for 2009. Fortunately for them, the price probably hasn't changed measurably. Maybe he'd take closer to $3 million to stay with the team he's spent his entire career with, but a club with a bigger budget could go to $4 million or even $5 million. There's no way Baldelli can be counted on as a regular, but he'd make a lot of sense as a 10th man for a team like the Red Sox, Yankees or Angels.

Previous prediction: Red Sox - one year, $4 million
New prediction: Red Sox - one year, $4 million


Other free agents: Moises Alou (Mets), Jay Payton (Orioles), Jacque Jones (FA), Luis Gonzalez (Marlins), Craig Monroe (FA), Emil Brown (Athletics), Kenny Lofton (FA), Daryle Ward (Cubs), Gabe Kapler (Brewers), Scott Podsednik (Rockies), Corey Patterson (Reds), Brad Wilkerson (Blue Jays), Shannon Stewart (FA), Jerry Hairston Jr. (Reds), Jason Michaels (Pirates), Victor Diaz (Mariners), Jay Gibbons (Brewers), Kevin Mench (Blue Jays), Chris Duffy (Pirates), Paul McAnulty (Padres), Chris Snelling (Phillies), Bobby Kielty (Twins), Justin Huber (Padres), Trot Nixon (Mets), Jason Lane (Red Sox), Jeff DaVanon (FA), Rob Mackowiak (Reds), Jose Cruz Jr. (FA), Brady Clark (Mets), Todd Linden (Indians), Tike Redman (Orioles), Luis Terrero (Orioles), Nathan Haynes (Rays), Jason Tyner (White Sox), Jason Ellison (Rangers), Chris Aguila (Mets), Alex Escobar (Nationals), Joe Thurston (Red Sox), John Gall (Marlins), Timo Perez (Tigers), Nook Logan (FA), Juan Encarnacion (Cardinals)

Alou would probably be a real asset as an AL DH if he could stay healthy, but he's likely to opt for retirement. … Most of the other guys here will be looking to latch on as bench players. Payton is the one capable of commanding a multiyear deal, but his ugly 2008 won't help his case.


Trade candidates: Terry Evans (Angels), Gary Matthews Jr. (Angels - full NTC), Reggie Willits (Angels), Rajai Davis (Athletics), Chris Denorfia (Athletics), Matt Murton (Athletics), Josh Anderson (Braves), Gregor Blanco (Braves), Mike Cameron (Brewers), Tony Gwynn Jr. (Brewers), Brian Barton (Cardinals), Chris Duncan (Cardinals), Kosuke Fukudome (Cubs), Felix Pie (Cubs), Andruw Jones (Dodgers - full NTC), Juan Pierre (Dodgers - limited NTC), Jason Repko (Dodgers), Delwyn Young (Dodgers), Dave Roberts (Giants), Randy Winn (Giants - limited NTC), David Dellucci (Indians), Franklin Gutierrez (Indians), Jeremy Reed (Mariners), Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners - limited NTC), Jeremy Hermida (Marlins), Marlon Anderson (Mets), Endy Chavez (Mets), Willie Harris (Nationals), Austin Kearns (Nationals), Wily Mo Pena (Nationals), Brian Giles (Padres - full NTC), Matt Stairs (Phillies), Marlon Byrd (Rangers), Frank Catalanotto (Rangers), Nelson Cruz (Rangers), Jonny Gomes (Rays), Coco Crisp (Red Sox), Ryan Freel (Reds), Willy Taveras (Rockies), David DeJesus (Royals), Joey Gathright (Royals), Jose Guillen (Royals), Mark Teahen (Royals), Brent Clevlen (Tigers), Magglio Ordonez (Tigers), Ryan Raburn (Tigers), Gary Sheffield (Tigers), Marcus Thames (Tigers), Michael Cuddyer (Twins), Jason Kubel (Twins), Jason Pridie (Twins), Delmon Young (Twins), Brian Anderson (White Sox), Jerry Owens (White Sox), Melky Cabrera (Yankees), Brett Gardner (Yankees)

The Dodgers are likely to be stuck with Jones through spring training at least, but they might be able to get rid of Pierre in exchange for another bad contract. I rather like the idea of Pierre to Seattle for Carlos Silva. … Hermida could be the fifth arbitration-eligible Marlin to be traded, but the team will demand more for in return for him than it has received in any of their deals so far. He'll probably stick around. … The Nats would almost certainly love to trade Kearns and roll his money into an offer to Ramirez or Teixeira. However, they'd probably have to take back a contract like Adam Eaton's from Philadelphia or Miguel Batista's from Seattle. … I don't think there's much to these Teahen-to-the-Cubs rumors. The Royals should seriously consider moving DeJesus instead. All indications are that they're not thrilled with his defense in centet, and he just wouldn't be all that valuable as a left fielder.


Non-tender candidates: Matt Diaz (Braves), Jonny Gomes (Rays), So Taguchi (Phillies), Jason Repko (Dodgers), Cory Sullivan (Rockies), Rajai Davis (Athletics), Jeff Salazar (Diamondbacks), Shane Costa (Royals), Mike Morse (Mariners), Luis Montanez (Orioles), Reggie Abercrombie (Astros), David Newhan (Astros), Alex Romero (Diamondbacks), Brett Carroll (Marlins), Sam Fuld (Cubs), Buck Coats (Blue Jays), Yordany Ramirez (Astros)


2009-10 free agents: Matt Holliday (Athletics), Carl Crawford (Devil Rays)*, Vladimir Guerrero (Angels), Jason Bay (Red Sox), Magglio Ordonez (Tigers)*, Rick Ankiel (Cardinals), Jermaine Dye (White Sox)*, Mike Cameron (Brewers), Johnny Damon (Yankees), Xavier Nady (Yankees), Hideki Matsui (Yankees), Brian Giles (Padres), Randy Winn (Giants), Coco Crisp (Red Sox)*, Gary Sheffield (Tigers), Jayson Werth (Phillies), Austin Kearns (Nationals)*, Andruw Jones (Dodgers), Reed Johnson (Cubs), Wily Mo Pena (Nationals), Jody Gerut (Padres), Geoff Jenkins (Phillies)*, Marlon Byrd (Rangers), Ryan Freel (Reds), David Dellucci (Indians), Dave Roberts (Giants), Darin Erstad (Astros), Frank Catalanotto (Rangers)*, Endy Chavez (Mets), Matt Stairs (Phillies), Marlon Anderson (Mets)

2010 options: Crawford - $10 million-$$11.5 million ($1.25 million buyout), Crisp - $8 million ($500,000 buyout), Ordonez - $15 million vesting ($3 million buyout), Dye - $12 million mutual ($1 million buyout), Kearns - $10 million ($1 million buyout), Jenkins - $7.5 million mutual ($1.25 million buyout), Catalanotto - $5 million ($2 million buyout)

2010-11 free agents: Brad Hawpe (Rockies)*, Magglio Ordonez (Tigers)*, David DeJesus (Royals)*, Michael Cuddyer (Twins)*, Jose Guillen (Royals), Jason Kubel (Twins), Eric Byrnes (Diamondbacks), Willie Tavares (Rockies), Marcus Thames (Tigers), Willie Harris (Nationals)

2011 options: Hawpe - $10 million ($500,000 buyout), Ordonez - $15 million vesting, DeJesus - $6 million ($500,000 buyout), Cuddyer - $10.5 million ($1 million buyout)

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Matthew Pouliot is the Executive Editor of RotoWorld.com and has been featured in ESPN The Magazine. For comments, e-mail him at matthewpouliot@hotmail.com.
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