The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series moves to Texas Motor Speedway for the 34th race of the 2009 season, the Dickies 500. Brian Brown took a look at past performances, season trends, and spoke with NASCAR contacts to predict how the field should finish on Sunday.
When: Sunday, November 8, 2009; 3:13 p.m./et.
Weather: Partly cloudy with a high around 71; wind out of the SSE at 9 mph. There is a 10 percent chance of precipitation.
The Track: Texas Motor Speedway
Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5 quad-oval. It has intermediate 24 degree banking on the turns. Roush-Fenway cars dominate 1.5 mile tracks and they will be tough to beat on Sunday.
Key to Race: A RACE FOR THE BIG BOYS
Anytime the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series visits a 1.5 mile track Roush-Fenway Racing is expected to be fast. The lack of success the Roush Boys have on short-tracks is the exact opposite to the continued success they show on the 1.5 mile tracks. The surface at Texas has great grip and thus cars can run wide-open the entire way around. The multi-car teams like Roush-Fenway and Hendrick Motorsports have a huge advantage in the funding of their engine programs. If a Roush-Fenway car doesn't find victory lane a Hendrick car will.
Qualifying Procedures:
48 cars will attempt to qualify for 43 spots. Cars not in the top 35 in the 2009 point standings will have to qualify based on speed. Starting positions 1-43 are determined during qualifying on Friday, November 6 at 4:40 pm/et.
Fantasy Cheat Sheet:
Top 5
No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon dominated Texas in April leading the most laps and winning the race. He could sweep both races in the Lone Star State this season.
No. 48 Jimmie Johnson: Johnson won the November 2007 race at Texas and in 11 career starts at the track he has nine top 10 finishes. He is a great pick to find victory lane on Sunday.
No. 99 Carl Edwards: Edwards proved his love for 1.5 mile ovals by sweeping both races at Texas last year. He is one of our favorites to take the checkers this weekend.
No. 14 Tony Stewart: Smoke has nine top 10 finishes (including a win) in 15 career starts at Texas. He is a great pick this weekend.
No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle has been great in the past two races at Texas. He is worth using in all leagues this weekend.
6 to 10
No. 17 Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has led at least one lap in 10 of the last 12 races at Texas. He could return to victory lane on Sunday.
No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya has been hit-or-miss at TMS during his career. We expect he will be a hit this weekend.
No. 5 Mark Martin: Martin has a win and five top fives in his career at TMS. He will cruise around in the top 15 and should sneak into the top 10 by the time the race is over.
No. 2 Kurt Busch: Busch has eight top 10 finishes in 13 career starts at Texas during his career. He is a great second driver on most fantasy teams this weekend.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in all but three of his career starts at Texas. We like his chances this weekend.
11 to 20
No. 18 Kyle Busch: Rowdy has finished inside the top six in three of the last four races at Texas. He is a fine pick this weekend.
No. 31 Jeff Burton: Burton has finished in the top six in four of the past six races at Texas Motor Speedway. He is a solid pick.
No. 33 Clint Bowyer: Texas isn't one of Bowyer's favorite tracks and his success at the track is limited. He should finish just outside the top 10.
No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior has led laps in each of the last five races at Texas, but we doubt he will get his second win at the track this weekend.
No. 29 Kevin Harvick: Harvick has been great in five of the last eight races in the Lone Star State, but his lack of success this season bumps him out of our top 15.
No. 1 Martin Truex Jr.: Truex Jr. has finished in the top 15 in six of his eight career starts at Texas. This isn't a bad weekend to sneak the No. 1 driver onto your team
No. 26 Jamie McMurray: Texas is one of McMurray's favorite tracks. This is good time to use last week's winner.
No. 39 Ryan Newman: Newman has averaged just a 22nd place finish the past four years at Texas. He is just an okay pick this weekend.
No. 00 David Reutimann: Reutimann has led 45 laps in the past two Texas races. He will bring a fast car to the track once again this weekend.
No. 9 Kasey Kahne: Kahne won the April 2006 race at Texas, but that is his only top 15 finish at the track in the past eight races.
21 to 30
No. 47 Marcos Ambrose: Ambrose blew an engine at Texas in April. He has never cracked the top 20 at this track and isn't a great pick.
No. 07 Casey Mears: Mears has struggled in recent races at Texas. He will finish just outside the top 20 on Sunday.
No. 6 David Ragan: Ragan had success at Texas last year, but suffered a blown engine in April. He could crack the top 20 this weekend with a little luck.
No. 20 Joey Logano: "Sliced Bread" likely won't do enough to help your fantasy team, but he should improve on the 30th place finish he registered at Texas in April.
No. 44 A.J. Allmendinger: Allmendinger hasn't run well at Texas in the past. He will miss the top 20.
No. 83 Brian Vickers: Vickers has never had much success at Texas Motor Speedway during his career. He is normally a great fantasy pick, but stay away from him this weekend.
No. 12 Brad Keselowski: Keselowski takes the wheel of the No. 12 car the remainder of the season. He is worth adding in all fantasy leagues.
No. 98 Paul Menard: Menard has cracked top 30 in all five of his career Texas starts. He is a sleeper pick this weekend.
No. 19 Elliott Sadler: Sadler hasn't had much success at Texas since he won at the track in 2004. There are far better options this weekend.
No. 77 Sam Hornish Jr.: Hornish Jr. has averaged a 24th place finish at Texas Motor Speedway during his career. He is a decent pick as a fifth driver for those of you in deep leagues.
31 to 35
No. 55 Michael Waltrip: Waltrip should have another finish just outside the top 30 this weekend.
No. 71 Bobby Labonte: Texas is the track Labonte looks forward to racing at all season. He could surprise some people with where he finishes on Sunday.
No. 96 Erik Darnell: Darnell has finished inside the top 30 just one time in his career. We don't think he will make it two this weekend.
No. 34 John Andretti: Lil' John has never finished on the lead lap in nine career starts at Texas. He is not an option.
No. 7 Robby Gordon: Gordon has cracked the top 20 just once in 11 career starts at Texas. He isn't a fantasy option.
Field Fillers
No. 43 Reed Sorenson
No. 21 Bill Elliott
No. 82 Scott Speed
No. 13 Max Papis
No. 87 Joe Nemechek
No. 78 Regan Smith
No. 02 David Gilliland
No. 08 Derrike Cope
No. 36 Michael McDowell
No. 66 Dave Blaney
No. 09 Mike Bliss
No. 70 Mike Skinner
No. 37 Tony Raines
Brownie's Picks
Top Four:
1. Jeff Godon
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Carl Edwards
4. Tony Stewart
Sleepers:
1. Jamie McMurray
2. Martin Truex Jr
Bust of the Week:
Brian Vickers