The Timberwolves have been among the most inconsistent teams in the association through the season's first quarter – in every way, that is, except lineups. Despite a struggling offense, Minnesota is the only NBA team that has yet to employ more than one starting lineup.
The team got off to a nice start, winning its first two before dropping four straight. And so it's gone in Minny all season – a modest winning steak followed by a losing one. Just when the club looked like it was turning things around, having won four straight last week to move back over .500, the Wolves dropped both their games this week and now sit at 10-11, third place in the Northwest. Yet they currently hold the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference and that looks like a position Minnesota will battle for all season long as it seeks its first playoff appearance since 2003-04, the year the Wolves finished with the top record in the West.
The Wolves have a solid defensive team, but the offense has been a weak spot. Although his numbers are down slightly, Kevin Garnett remains a fantasy stud, and is currently third in the NBA with 11.9 RPG. But it's clear he can't carry this team himself, something he's made known to management. Minnesota tried to get him help, but, unwilling to part with rookie Randy Foye, the Wolves couldn't land Allen Iverson.
Looking at the numbers, it seems Minnesota is simply not being aggressive enough on the offensive end. While the team is tied for third in the NBA in fewest blocks by opponents per game (4.0), that isn't necessarily a good thing. Something that speaks to the problem far clearer is the Wolves' total of 22.7 free-throw attempts per game – that's dead last in the NBA. Considering Minnesota is one of the better free-throw shooting teams in the association (fourth at 79.67 percent), it's pretty obvious that it's not getting to the line enough to avail of one of its few offensive strengths.
Garnett's doing a good job in this area, but Ricky Davis is down to 3.6 trips per game after getting to the stripe an average of five times last season. Small wonder his offense has dropped off so dramatically this season. How about newcomer Mike James? He got to the charity stripe 4.3 times per game with the Raptors last year. This season? Try just 2.7 attempts per game. Mark Blount is down as well. This team needs to take the rock to the rack to kick start the offense.
As mentioned, the opening night lineup has yet to change. Let's run down the minutes in Minny.
James is the new PG, and although he's showing signs of life lately, he has really struggled to spark Minnesota's offense. Foye is seeing significant minutes as back up and has looked great this week with back-to-back double-digit scoring games. He's got tremendous promise as a future starting point guard, but turnovers have been a problem as he works his way through the typical rookie bumps. Marko Jaric, who came aboard last year in the deal for Sam Cassell, has looked very strong off the bench at times, and his shooting is much improved this season, but Jaric's PT is too inconsistent with James and Foye aboard this year. Foul trouble – like the kind he got into Saturday which held him to just 11 minutes – has also been a problem for Jaric.
Davis is the starting two-guard. His numbers are down across the board, yet he's not shooting poorly (expect from long distance, where he's really tanked).
At the SF position, Trenton Hassell is the main man, but his PT is down and he's also having a tough time finding his offensive game. Hassell was a strong perimeter shooter as a rookie with the Bulls back in 2001-02, but that part of his game has gone AWOL and is showing no signs of returning (4-for-16 this season). Like most of the Wolves, Hassell is struggling to get to the line and his FT shooting has never been worse. On the plus side, he's contributing a few more blocks this year.
PF Garnett, as mentioned, continues to be one of the game's best players, but after 12 years in Minnesota without a real sniff of a title, he's getting frustrated. Now that A.I. has finally bailed on Philly, you have to wonder how long KG will wear the mantle as the NBA's longest-serving player on any one team. If Minnesota slips out of the playoff picture, the long-speculated departure of Garnett might finally become reality.
Finally, you've got Blount as the man in the middle. He's getting a few more touches this year and while he's still not a big enough rebounder, he can put up some points every now and then, making him a decent back-up center for fantasy purposes. This week, for instance, Blount got some heavy minutes and in two games he scored 35 points with 18 rebounds and three steals. If he can consistently deliver those kinds of numbers, Blount's value will soar.
On the bench, rookie Craig Smith has been a very pleasant surprise, and although his scoring has dwindled of late, Smith's play may make him a useful asset if Minnesota tries again to swing a deal; Troy Hudson has completely fallen out of the rotation at guard, yet he's signed for another three years; F/C Eddie Griffin looked like he might have value after his huge rebounding in the preseason, but he's sitting near the end of the bench and has had to deal with off court problems; SF Justin Reed got some decent minutes last week, but hasn't played at all this week and is not a rotation candidate at this time; former Hoosier Bracey Wright has only played in one game this season; Mark Madsen has been out for a couple of weeks with a sore shoulder and he is about to be activated, but he also doesn't see enough action to be of any use; finally, Rashad McCants, who had a big second half as a rookie last season, remains out after off-season knee surgery. If he's a factor at all this season, it won't be for quite some time.
Boston
Despite an abundance of injuries, things are looking up in Beantown as the Celtics have won five straight to take over the lead in the Atlantic Division. It's the club's longest steak since taking seven in a row back in March 2005.
The Celtics are definitely getting the job done away from home with four consecutive victories; in fact with a 6-5 road record (vs. 4-8 at home), Boston is the NBA's only team to have a winning road record but a losing home record. Is there any way to lengthen these road trips, Mr. Stern?
In terms of position battles in Beantown, the point guard slot remains up in the air. Sebastian Telfair's minutes have fluctuated greatly this week, and from a purely fantasy standpoint, his performance has been horrid. He's just 5-for-26 without a 3-pointer during the winning streak, averaging just 3.6 points with under four assists per game. In addition, questions remain about Telfair's long-term maturity in the wake of the October shooting incident in New York, but for now, Boston has committed to him. He does have seven steals in the last four games and Boston has been very pleased with how well he's protected the pumpkin as Telfair has turned the ball over only four times during the five-game streak.
Delonte West, Telfair's key backup, has seen large swings in PT this week as well, but even with his inconsistency, West has outplayed Telfair and deserves another shot at the starting job. He's really been pitching in off the bench, scoring 14 points with four boards and a block on Saturday. Unfortunately, with both Telfair and West seeing significant minutes right now, rookie Rajon Rondo has disappeared back into the DNP zone after getting some decent minutes last week. He played in 19 of Boston's first 21 games, but with back-to-back DNPs, the ex-Kentucky star seems to have fallen out of the team's plans for now. He's definitely someone to sleep on long term, however.
Another Celtic who I love long term but whose playing time has slipped of late is Gerald Green. He's been getting decent minutes off the bench most of the time, and he pitched in with six points, three boards and a steal on Saturday, but until he starts getting some significant minutes again like he did last week, take a pass on the talented Green.
At SF, Wally Szczerbiak returned from his left ankle sprain this week, but didn't regain his starting job from Tony Allen. And just when Wally World started getting heavier minutes again, he went down on Saturday with a sprained right ankle. This one is said to be worse than the first, so Boston doesn't expect Wally back until the New Year, meaning Allen will remain in the starting lineup for the time being. Allen, by the way, is playing some seriously heavy minutes in the past couple of games as the starting SG (with Paul Pierce taking Wally's spot at the three) and he's been putting up some excellent numbers, making him well worth a pickup if he's on your league's waiver wire.
Szczerbiak wasn't the only Celtic to fall this week, as power forward Ryan Gomes has missed the past two games with a sore right calf. Brian Scalabrine has started in his place and the big redhead played some serious minutes on Saturday, filling the stat sheet with seven points, five boards, five assists and a block. He'll likely head back to bench, however, with Gomes expected to return tonight.
Michael Olowokandi and possibly Kendrick Perkins are on their way back soon, but good luck dislodging Al Jefferson from his place as the starting center. He only has 50 points in the last two games while racking up five straight double-digit rebounding efforts. It looks like Boston has finally found a legitimate third scoring option, and Big Al's play of late has been as big a reason for the Celtics' turnaround as any.
Seattle
The Sonics just finished the road trip from hell, enduring their first winless five-game trip since 1987, capped by a double OT loss to the lowly Grizzlies on Monday. This five-game losing streak has sunk Seattle to 10-16, dead last in the Northwest Division.
Coach Hill, who's been at the center of controversy this year as he and his second-unit players were sniping at each in the media, has tried almost everything to find a formula that works. But with star Ray Allen out the past eight games with an ankle injury, the Sonics have struggled to replace his offense. Fortunately, Allen is expected back on Saturday and Seattle is back at home tonight (although against Dallas that's hardly a relief).
Enigmatic power forward Chris Wilcox had his minutes slashed on Wednesday as he struggled from the field. Coach Hill yanked him from the starting five on Friday (inserting Andreas Glyniadakis), but gave Wilcox more minutes, and since returning to the starting five on Sunday, Wilcox has been getting heavier PT. His scoring has been up –55 points in the past three, but I'd like to see more rebounding from Wilcox. He can look unbelievable sometimes, but then completely go into the tank. Until he delivers a more consistent effort, Wilcox's PT will probably be in danger every now and then.
The beneficiary when Wilcox's PT is cut has been Mickael Gelabale. He began the week with starter-type minutes, but slowly saw that cut as Wilcox resumed control. Still, he finally showed an offensive touch this week, so he may continue to see significant minutes off the bench.
At center, things have been equally messy as Nick Collison had his minutes slashed on Wednesday. He was back up to significant minutes on Friday, but Sunday, Collison's PT was cut again and Monday he was removed from the starting lineup, with Glyniadakis taking over. Collison hasn't been scoring or rebounding enough to be fantasy worthy lately, and it's growing increasing clear that Coach Hill doesn't like having an undersized (6'9") center.
But I doubt Glyniadakis is the answer. Let's not forget about Johan Petro, who's been getting starter's minutes off the bench this week. The numbers are not always there for him consistently, but Petro is averaging almost nine points with seven boards, one block and almost one assist per game over the past five. The Eiffel Tower has also been lighting it up, sinking 42-of-65 over the past 11. He is deserving of the minutes he's been getting.
Bear in mind that Seattle would prefer to keep Petro in a reserve role, but it desperately needs a solid post player. Could P.J. Brown be the answer? He wants out of Chicago, and it's been speculated that the Sonics could offer Danny Fortson and his expiring contract plus either Desmon Farmer or Glyniadakis to land Brown.
In the backcourt, with Earl Watson missing Monday's game with back spasms, Mike Wilks got to play his first serious minutes of the year, putting up four points, six boards, six assists and a steal. But he is not a good shooter and when Watson returned Friday, Wilks was again stapled to the bench. Watson's absence even ushered in a Farmer sighting, as he got some decent minutes off the bench Wednesday. But don't look for the rookie to earn much of a role – Seattle is so desperate for help that it worked out Penny Hardaway this week, and if he's signed, Farmer would be the odd man out.
When Watson returned on Friday, even starter Luke Ridnour saw a reduction in PT. Of course, he deserved to sit, going 1-for-7 from the field in his 26 minutes. Generally speaking, however, Ridnour has been money for the Sonics this year and he's emerged as a real leader on this team. Monday he recorded his third double-double of the year and he looks like one of the few Seattle starters who have job security.
Watson has been getting some very nice PT this week and he's been putting up the points, but what's up with that shooting? He's just 13-for-40 in the past five and he turned it over four times on Monday. That won't help his situation.
Damien Wilkins, who's been subbing for Allen, has had his minutes cut this week as his offense has dried up. While Wilkins has been adequate in Allen's absence, he simply hasn't been able to take full advantage of the opportunity and take that next step towards becoming a real scorer. With Allen back Saturday, this is Wilkins' final week, so get ready to cut him if you haven't already.
Even SF Rashard Lewis – Seattle's main man with Allen out – struggled earlier this week, playing horribly on Friday and seeing his minutes cut. Since then, however, he's snapped out of it in a big way, scoring 36 points with 14 boards Monday for his sixth double-double of the year. Lewis is truly enjoying a career year while becoming virtually automatic from the charity stripe, nailing 60 of his last 62.
Fast Breaks
Portland SG: Martell Webster's been getting more minutes at SG for now. Friday, he scored 11 points on 3-of-6 shooting while dropping four dimes. He's not a heavy scoring option as Portland seems to really be spreading the rock around lately. Note also that Brandon Roy is supposed to return tonight and that's going to cut into Webster's PT again. The only question is, will Roy be healthy enough to muddle through? Surgery remains a possibility, especially if he rookie experiences another setback.
Atlanta PF: Marvin Williams is starting to play heavier minutes, blocking any likelihood that Shelden Williams will see significant playing time again. Marvin is showing no signs of rust, tying his career high with 23 points on Saturday. Look for Williams to cut into the touches of Zaza Pachulia as well.
San Antonio backcourt: Manu Ginobili returned to the starting lineup last week, and he's been playing more minutes since. I am loving what I'm seeing from him of late, with almost 19 PPG in the past five. With Michael Finley back on the bench, Beno Udrih's minutes have been inconsistent this week. He's picked up the pace in his perimeter game with a three pointer in each of the past three games, but Udrih won't see significant minutes often enough to be of any use.
Cleveland PF: Drew Gooden returned from a groin injury this week, sending Anderson Varejao back to the bench. But it was Varejao who continued to get the lion's share of the minutes until Saturday when his foul trouble opened the door for Gooden to play heavy minutes. Gooden responded with his sixth double-double (14 points, 12 rebounds), while adding two steals, a block and an assist. Nice to see him fill the stat sheet, but what's up with the 6-for-16 shooting? Gooden is just over 47 percent this year after draining over 51 percent from the field last season. Varejao, meanwhile, continues to win fans over with the hustle and 'do. Gooden's return and Varejao's stepped up role, however, have really cut into Donyell Marshall's PT. Marshall took a goose egg on Saturday, and if he's not scoring, he's not going to be playing, so ditch him if you've got him.
Dallas bench: Greg Buckner has been playing significant minutes most of the week and he contributed double-digit scoring in two of the past three. Buckner's PT even survived the return of Jerry Stackhouse on Friday, but he's never been much of an offensive force even when he gets the minutes. Anthony Johnson, somewhat of a forgotten man in the Dallas rotation after losing his expected starting job right from the get go, is supposed to be back Wednesday night after missing the last three. So that will cloud Buckner's situation again. Even though he's struggled since his return, expect Stackhouse to be only Dallas bench player to retain value going forward.
Utah backcourt: With Deron Williams fouling out on Sunday, rookie Dee Brown saw his first significant minutes of the year, but he continues to be plagued by horrible shooting. He's draining just 20.6 percent of his shots from the field, and things are getting worse not better as Brown sunk just 1-of-8 in his last two games. In terms of backcourt bench players for the Jazz, Gordan Giricek got some decent minutes this week, and he's good for the occasional offensive spurt (12 on Friday), so is a better bet. Swingman Matt Harpring gets more burn than either of those two, but he's in a slump himself of late, so none of these three look to pose much threat to starting two-guard Derek Fisher for the time being.
Houston SG: Keep an eye on Bonzi Wells, who has started the process of repairing his fractured relationship with Coach Van Gundy. His minutes are rising this week and he's now playing more than starting PF Chuck Hayes. With T-Mac due back on Friday, there are many options the Rockets will have here. They could simply insert McGrady for Luther Head, or they could opt to keep Head at the two-guard and send McGrady to SF, Shane Battier to PF and Hayes to the bench. Or Wells could also sneak in and grab the starting SG spot; in fact, I'd be shocked if he doesn't grab it at some point. Hayes is definitely the one with the shakiest situation right now, but let's not forget about Juwan Howard, who could also swoop in and grab one of the forward slots. Like I said, the Rockets will have options in the coming weeks.
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Rob Blackstien runs www.RotoRob.com, a site featuring daily fantasy sports analysis. In addition to his baseball work on the site, he contributes to Rotoworld’s basketball coverage. Rob also writes for CREATiVESPORTS.com, BaseballNotebook.com and has contributed to Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide and Fantasy Football Guide. |
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