My Morning Jacket is one of my favorite bands and they have a new record (cd, whatever) coming out on Tuesday, June 10. It's called Evil Urges and you can preview it here if you like. If you missed my blog that included keyboardist Bo Koster's thoughts on Phil Jackson and the Lakers, check it out here.
With a break from the playoffs before the finals start on Thursday, now seems like as good a time as ever for the Top 24 list for this fall's fantasy drafts. Last year at this time, I left Dwyane Wade out of the Top 24, and caught some heat for it. I also caught some heat for constantly telling you all to sell high on him this year, with the gloom and doom assumption that he would be shut down early.
According to the good folks at BasketballMonster.com, Wade finished at No. 21 overall on a per-game fantasy basis and when you mix in the fact that he shut it down after just 51 games for the second straight year, he was a huge waste if taken in the first or second round of your draft. And on the flip side, Chris Paul was not in my Top 24 at this time last year, and finished as the best fantasy player on the planet. Oops. However, I did eventually have him as a second-round pick in the Draft Guide. I'm not sure I've got anything quite as groundbreaking on this early Top 24 list, but I'm sure some of you will take issue with it.
I'm ignoring turnovers and counting free throw percentages. Obviously, if you're in a league that doesn't count turnovers and uses free throws made instead of percentage, go ahead and put Dwight Howard in the No. 1 slot.
Also, if you're in a league where center values are inflated because you have to start two of them, take this with a grain of salt. Obviously, depending on your league's rules, lists will vary. I did not give the center position much, if any preferential treatment here. I also realized after posting this column that I missed Elton Brand, which is a fairly major oversight. He will be in the Top 24 the next time I publish one of these lists. I'm just not sure who he'll replace at this point. Stay tuned.
Where each player ranked per game and cumulatively for this season is included.
Round 1
1. LeBron James – F – Cavaliers
Ranked No. 3 per game, No. 4 cumulative
LeBron was not the No. 1 fantasy player this year. He also wasn't number two either, but I don't care. His free throws are obviously his biggest problem, but I suspect he's going to get better from the line at some point. He's built like a Mack truck and has missed just 19 games in five seasons. Reliability is possibly the most important aspect when picking your fantasy team, and LeBron has it. He also gets it done in scoring, rebounds and assists, while also putting up nice numbers across the board. He may not finish as the No. 1 fantasy player again next season, but there's almost no way he's not in the Top 5. And I'm not betting against him.
2. Kobe Bryant – G – Lakers
Ranked No. 2 per game, No. 2 cumulative
This year's MVP should pick up another ring and a Finals MVP award in the next couple weeks, and then win a gold medal this summer. Unlike LeBron and his free throws, Kobe doesn't really have any weaknesses in his game. His rebounding and assist numbers aren't as strong as LeBron's, and he doesn't block many shots, but he also won't hurt you anywhere and you know he's going to have the ball in his hands as much as any player in the league. He also doesn't miss games and played in all 82 this season. Just keep in mind that after his run to the Finals and Olympics, he could come into the season tired.
3. Chris Paul – PG – Hornets
Ranked No. 1 per game, No. 1 cumulative
If Paul was easily the No. 1 fantasy player last season, why is he not No. 1 on this list? It's a great question. You can pretty much throw the Top 3 up in the air and pick whichever one you like best. It's very trendy to build your team around a point guard right now, and Paul is the cream of the crop. He led the league in both steals and assists, doesn't turn the ball over, and his percentages are great. All indications are he's going to be even better next season, so he can be taken anywhere from No. 1 to No. 3. He still feels a little fragile to me, but he only missed two games this season. I like LeBron and you might like Paul. I just feel like LeBron (and possibly Kobe) are a little safe picks than Paul, but you can't argue with what the kid did this year.
4. Amare Stoudemire – PF/C – Suns
Ranked No. 4 per game, No. 3 cumulative
Stoudemire has really earned my respect after coming off of microfracture surgery the season before last. He remarkably played in 82 games that season, and then came back and was good for 79 games this year. Now that I'm finally on board with him, I could see knee problems arising this year, but it's tough to argue with what he has done over the last two campaigns. He averaged 25 points, nine boards and two blocks this season and shot it very well from both the field and the line. He also knocked down five treys this season and could push that number up to 10 this season, if his new coach will let him fire from downtown. It should be interesting to see what Stoudemire can do in a full season without Shawn Marion around.
5. Dwyane Wade – G – Heat
Ranked No. 21 per game, No. 87 cumulative
Wade was not healthy coming into the season or when he shut it down after just 51 games. However, he's on pace to be at full strength for the Olympics, and barring any setbacks, should be good to go for the upcoming season. He was Top 10 in both per game and cume ranking during the 2005-06 season, and on a per game basis in the 06-07 season, he was No. 1 overall, but played in just 51 games. The bottom line is, if Wade is healthy, he's an elite fantasy player and possibly worth the first pick in your draft. I think the chances of him staying healthy all year long are rather slim, but I also don't expect him to need surgery during the upcoming season. If he makes it through the Olympics in one piece, he should be worth a Top 5 pick this Fall.
6. Gilbert Arenas – G – Wizards
Ranked No. 57 per game, not ranked cumulative
Will I be taking Arenas at No. 6 this year if I have the pick? I'm not sure. His return to the Wizards is up in the air, as he's set to opt out at the end of the month, and we'll have to make sure he's healthy going into the year. If he's still a Wizard and is 100 percent healed from his knee injury, there's no reason he shouldn't be worth a pick this high. The question is, will you be brave enough to take him in front of guys like Steve Nash, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Garnett and Allen Iverson? Arenas could end up being further down the list come draft time.
7. Steve Nash – PG – Suns
Ranked No. 12 per game, No. 7 cumulative
Nash missed just one game this season, despite struggling with back and shoulder issues for much of the year. Paul averaged more assists on the year, but Nash was close behind, while the rest of his numbers remained steady, although he scored less than 17 ppg (16.9) for the first time in three seasons. He's still a great shooter and has proven to be very reliable from a health standpoint. There are no sure things in fantasy hoops, but Nash is pretty close to it.
8. Shawn Marion – F – Heat
Ranked No. 7 per game, No. 32 cumulative
Marion played just 62 games this year, explaining his low cumulative ranking. He wasn't exactly dominant in his time with the Heat, showing more inconsistency than anything else. But it's a new season and the Heat have a new coach, a high draft pick and should have a healthy Wade. Marion probably could have finished the season if he was playing for a contender and should come into the season at full strength. There's no guarantee that he'll be playing for the Heat this year, but regardless, he should return to having solid fantasy value again. But his final pre-season value won't be determined until we see what happens this summer.
9. Dirk Nowitzki – F - Mavericks
Ranked No. 11 per game, No. 10 cumulative
Despite the Mavericks' early exit from the playoffs (again), Dirk's season ended on a much better note than it did last year. He played well for the entire season and was also solid in the playoffs, allowing Josh Howard to be this year's scapegoat for Dallas. Dirk's lack of blocks and threes from where they once were is annoying, but is also just a fact of life. I am not sure if I'll have Dirk at No. 9 at the end of the summer, but it sounds about right for him. If not, he could show up closer to No. 12 than No. 9.
10. Kevin Garnett – F - Celtics
Ranked No. 10 per game, No. 15 cumulative
KG missed 11 games with his abdominal strain and looked much better during the regular season than he has in the playoffs. His recent lack of determination on the offensive end of things is disturbing to potential fantasy owners, as the last thing we want to see him do is pass up open 5-footers on a nightly basis. His free throw shooting hasn't been too clutch recently and his fantasy numbers during the regular season took a hit with the arrival of Ray Allen and strong play of Paul Pierce. Garnett is still a beast, but you have to think all the minutes he's played since 1995 have taken their toll. If he can stay healthy next year, no. 10 sounds about right.
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Steve "Dr. A" Alexander is the senior editor for the NBA and PGA Tour for Rotoworld.com. The 2009-10 NBA season marks his eighth year of covering fantasy hoops for Rotoworld.com, and he was a Top 3 finalist for NBA Fantasy Writer of the Year in 2008-09. Follow him on Twitter at docktora. |
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