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Steve Alexander
Off Season Low Down
October 11, 2007
Betting the farm on LeBron
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The Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide is available by clicking on the link and has everything you need to fully prepare for your draft. You name it and it's in there. Schedule breakdown and analysis, current depth charts, projections and detailed outlooks with current updates for more than 350 players – And a whole lot more, including Tiers of Heaven, in-depth team reports and a plethora of columns. Check it out.

I had two fantasy drafts going on during the day on Wednesday and they couldn't have been more different. One was in the Dropping Dimes expert league on Yahoo and the other was the 30-Deep League run by the guys at CBS Sportsline.

30-Deep League Draft Order

1. Aaron Gleeman, RotoWorld.com
2. Jake Payton, Senior Software Engineer, CBSSports.com
3. Tom Carpenter, RotoTimes.com
4. Peter Madden, Managing Editor, Fantasy Sports, CBSSports.com
5. Eric Karabell, ESPN.com
6. Dan Dobish, Senior Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
7. Dennis Velasco, Dropping Dimes.com
8. Tony Mejia, NBA Writer, CBSSports.com
9. Brian McKitish, ESPN.com
10. Lyle Crouse, Assistant Managing Editor, CBSSports.com
11. Patrick Madden, GiveMeTheRock.com
12. Dave Richard, Senior Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
13. Matt Lawrence, RotoWorld.com
14. Jamey Eisenberg, Senior Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
15. Mike Yam, Sirius Radio
16. David Gonos, Senior Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
17. Rick Kamla, NBA.com
18. Eric Mack, Senior Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
19. Steve Alexander, RotoWorld.com
20. Jason Horowitz, Video Host, CBSSports.com
21. Rory Brunner, FOX Sports.com
22. Scott White, Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
23. Rick Cordella, RotoWorld.com
24. Sergio Gonzalez, Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
25. Evan Silva, RotoWorld.com
26. Michael Hurcomb, Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
27. David Klyce, HoopsKlyce.com
28. Ross Devonport, Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
29. Brian Flood, RotoWorld.com
30. Corey Guerrera, Fantasy Product Manager, CBSSports.com

Dropping Dimes' 14 owners

Alvin Lai & Ron Chow, Scott Sargent, Matt Satten, Brandon Haraway, Dennis Velasco – DroppingDimes.com
Neil Tardy - Talented Mr. Roto/ESPN
Kelly Dwyer - True Hoop/ESPN
James Quintong - Sports Illustrated
Steve Alexander – Rotoworld.com
Nels Wadycki - Give Me The Rock (givemetherock.com)
Sergio Gonzalez - CBS Sports
Jed Berger - DIME (dimemag.com)
Emry Downinghall - SLAM ( slamonline.com)
Ryan McNeill - Hoops Addict (hoopsaddict.com)

The Dropping Dimes draft absolutely flew by, as people were making picks about every 15 seconds. It was difficult to keep up with crossing players off of cheat sheets and if you didn't pre-rank players (which I don't usually do), you pretty much just had to go with the flow and get your next player queued up ASAP.

As for the other draft - They have a "live" link to that draft available and you can probably check in next week and we'll still be making our second-round picks. Thirty owners, five starters and the slowest draft of all time, hands down. Have you ever been late for work and get stuck behind a farmer on his tractor on a public highway? Well, living in the hills as I do, it's happened to me. That's sort of what this is like. This 30-team league is intense and is going to be a lot of fun. But trying to get 30 guys to be at their computer to make a pick when it's their turn is not easy. You've got guys on airplanes, broadcasting live NBA games on television when it's their turn, guys on both coasts, etc. And then you throw in the fact that most of us are pretty busy and it all leads to a snail's pace for the draft. And the slow pace is magnified since most of us are pretty excited to draft our teams. That draft started on Monday and I'm just about ready to make my SECOND pick (which will be LaMarcus Aldridge at 42 overall). The payoff of such a deep and (hopefully) competitive league should be worth the pain of waiting several days between picks.

Dropping Dimes Draft Recap

Round 1

Anyway, last night's Dropping Dimes draft was also interesting for me because I threw caution to the wind with the fourth overall pick. This was my fourth or fifth draft of the year already, and I've pretty much stuck to the 'book' (or should I say 'Guide') up to this point. My data told me that Shawn Marion was the no-brainer pick, and that he shouldn't have even been available to me at No. 4. Kobe Bryant went to Dennis from Dropping Dimes at No. 1, Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki also went to Dropping Dimes teams at No. 2 and 3, and then I was suddenly faced with taking LeBron James or Marion. This league is standard nine categories, including turnovers, and deep with 14 teams. Matrix is a stud in those formats – Every year. But LeBron was just sitting there. I saw the clock ticking down, sucked it up, threw the numbers in the trash and took LeBron over Marion. Once that happened, the flood gates opened up and I continued to fly by the seat of my pants. Would I do the same thing again if I was drafting tonight? That's the beauty of it. I don't know. Or, what if there was $1,000 on the line instead of nothing but pride and the love of the game? Another great question.

That said, Marion's trade request and locker room turmoil combined with the fact that James could do something really special this year spoke to me as I was getting ready to click. It's hard to call taking LeBron a mistake, whether it's the first or fourth pick.

Round 2

Those of you who are regular readers know that for the better part of the summer (and my entire career) I have said that Dwight Howard is a cat-killer in free throw percentage and turnover leagues. He's a cancer in those two cats and will drag your team down, right? Well, I must have forgotten about all that because I took Howard in the second round. I'm fairly certain the move was a direct result of writing a blurb earlier in the day on Rotoworld about how much better his free throw shooting (and shooting in general) has become, along with the fact that the kid is completely focused on cutting down on the TOs. Good enough for me, I guess. Boom – Howard is mine. And the funny thing is, I actually feel good about it!

Round 3

The third round rolled around and LaMarcus Aldridge was staring me in the face. Sign me up! Two starting centers are locked in and I've got two of the most promising young big men the game has ever seen. With Greg Oden out of the picture, Aldridge is everyone's favorite sleeper and I secured him, although I won't hide the fact that it was a reach. But a core of LeBron-Howard-Aldridge sure looks good on paper, point guards be damned. The rest of the group wasn't really feeling Aldridge that early, but I'm also fairly certain he would not have gotten back to me had I let him go.

I had no idea I was so in love with Aldridge this year, but apparently I am. I took him a little earlier than I had him projected in the last two drafts, but it's tough to know that if you let a guy you want go by you, there's no chance he'll be there on the way back.

Round 4

The fourth round rolled around and Jason Richardson was staring me in the face, as were point guards Raymond Felton and Mo Williams. Had Deron Williams been there, he would have been my pick, but he went in the middle of the second round, when I was speed dialing Howard's agent. I blew off the point guard situation for another round and took Richardson. If he can stay healthy (a big if), he's going to be a monster in Charlotte. This pick also drew some 'oohs' and 'ahhs' from the other owners. I feel good about it.

Round 5

So after four rounds I have the best player in the game (maybe), the two most promising centers you'll find this side of Amare and Yao, and a shooting guard with a chip on his shoulder primed for big things in Charlotte. So for Round 5 it was time to go point guard hunting. Andre Miller and Tony Parker were both there, but those guys are boring. Consistent, but boring. I decided to put aside all the rumors about Jason Terry coming off the bench and went for it. Looking back, I'm not sure that was the right call, but the numbers we're seeing from him this year support the pick. The bottom line for me is that Jet, whether coming off the bench or not, is going to be a stud again this year, as one of the focal points of the Mavericks' offense. I think taking Parker or Miller here would have possibly been a touch safer, but Jet's threes pushed him over the top for me. Again, I don't love the pick, but I am comfortable with it.

Round 6

Round 6 rolls around and I already have my starting five positions filled, as Aldridge can play both forward and center. I was all set for some Rajon Rondo or Ricky Davis here, but Neil from ESPN and Sergio from CBS snagged them just before my pick. In a league like this, you can't have too much depth at center, so I went ahead and grabbed Chris Kaman - The last center available without a big question mark next to his name. He scares me a little after last year, but without Elton Brand around for the foreseeable future, I am happy to have him. Brandon from Dropping Dimes took Peja Stojakovic here, so I feel pretty good about getting a guaranteed producer at center in retrospect.

Round 7

Round 7 was time for another point guard, or should I say a "real" point guard as opposed to the combo-guard thing I got with Terry. T.J. Ford was there and when I took him, several vulgarities appeared in the chat room. That is always a great feeling, especially knowing he was the last top-tier PG available. With Ford and Jet to go along with the rest of my studs, my point guard situation doesn't look too bad. And I wasn't done with them yet, either.

Round 8

The eighth pick was my biggest gamble of the draft. Tim Thomas has to play big minutes for the Clippers and has been tagged as the guy who will replace Brand in the starting five. In addition to playing the post and racking up points and boards, the guy loves shooting the three-ball. He's going to hurt my FG%, but Howard and Aldridge should help offset the damage. Thomas could easily be a bust, but it really feels like he's going to get a ton of opportunity this season. Yeah, I could have taken Morris Peterson, Chucky Atkins or even Brand here (the next three picks), but in my mind, Thomas has at least as good a chance at having a big year as those guys do. He's healthy and his combination of big-man, small man numbers look great for an eighth-round pick. But I would not be shocked if he struggles, either.

Round 9

The ninth round rolled around and Acie Law was getting lonely. And since I'm a "what have you done for me lately" kind of guy, another recent post about 'how great Law is going to be' influenced my decision. The Hawks' veterans love him, Mike Woodson loves him and according to Sekou Smith of the AJC, he's going to get a lot of run and spend time on the floor at the end of games. Speedy Claxton might be the opening-night starter, but Law could be the opening-night closer. I needed another PG and Law looks like he's going to play a big role for the Hawks this season. Players taken just before him included Mike Conley, Tyrus Thomas and Luis Scola, so I wasn't the only guy going for upside in this round.

Round 10

I took Mike Dunleavy in Round 10 and he had a great game for the Pacers last night. He should fit in well with Jim O'Brien's new hit-and-run offense and his ability to move without the ball is going to benefit him. He also can't possibly shoot as poorly as he did last season, so I consider him a great value pick this late. Other guys taken around this time included Devin Harris, Travis Outlaw and Smush Parker. Dunleavy is locked into a prominent role with the Pacers, while those other guys come with plenty of upside, but no guarantees. I love this pick.

Round 11

I still felt like I needed one more center and reached for Mark Blount in Round 11, who should start there for the Wolves this year. He could end up being the first man I cut in this league, but if I'd have taken Kendrick Perkins or Brendan Haywood, I could say the same thing.

Round 12

I rounded out the team by taking Derek Fisher, who will start at point guard for the Lakers this season. He's going to be hit or miss, but should offer solid 12th-round value in any league. I have no issues with this pick.

I feel pretty good about the team, but haven't really been able to compare it to the others just yet. It's important to know that I completely stand behind the projections, rankings and other information in the Draft Guide. If I would have gotten the first pick instead of the fourth, I might have just taken Marion. I don't know. Every draft is different. But you have to take everything into consideration when drafting your team. Things like the "feel" of the room, whether you start one or two centers, early trends and which players you feel best about in the heat of the moment, regardless of what the numbers tell you or where you've got a guy ranked. This is why using the Tiering System is so important. It's amazing how values can fluctuate based on position scarcity and trends, while I also realize that a seemingly harmless, short blurb on Rotoworld that you read on your way to your draft could persuade you to do something you weren't planning on. As soon as I had both Howard and Aldridge locked up early, the center pool was suddenly much thinner than we imagined it would be at that point. I'm not saying it was a great move, or that it was by design, but that it simply changed the complexity of the draft and probably gave centers even more early value than they originally had.

Some nights you go by the book, and other times you just have to wing it. I'm not sure how the other owners feel about my draft, but knowing that I will start Howard at center, Aldridge at power forward, LeBron at small forward, Richardson at shooting guard and Terry or Ford at point guard should at least send some fear their way.

Doc



 

Steve "Dr. A" Alexander is the senior editor for the NBA and PGA Tour for Rotoworld.com. The 2009-10 NBA season marks his eighth year of covering fantasy hoops for Rotoworld.com, and he was a Top 3 finalist for NBA Fantasy Writer of the Year in 2008-09. Follow him on Twitter at docktora.
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