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Steve Alexander
Offseason Beat
October 26, 2009
NBA Draft Day Notebook
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The Daily Dose will be starting on Tuesday morning, just in time for the start of the season. The Season Pass will also be up and running on Tuesday, in case you were wondering. In the meantime, enjoy the Draft Day Notebook. A quick reference for players we like and don't like as you head into your drafts. I did not include Marco Belinelli in the first version of this column and I'm not adding here. I like him as a sleeper to make threes in Toronto but still am not convinced he's worth drafting.

With draft day quickly approaching, the first thing you should do is buy the action-packed Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide. After that, you should spend your time digging through it, making your own notes and observations, along with reading the player outlooks, which have the latest news attached for each player.

When we put rankings together, it's impossible to put all of our personal feelings in them. For example, I do not plan on drafting Tim Duncan, Elton Brand or Baron Davis this year. On my personal list, they are way down there. And while I probably have them lower in the guide than you will find them elsewhere, I can't just not list them or put them in a ridiculous 10th-round spot.

So here are some of my thoughts about fantasy hoops, who I like drafting and who I am avoiding on draft day.

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Sleepers/Guys I Like – In (Mostly) Team City Order

There are so many fun sleepers out there right now, along with rookies and players who have had a great preseason. Here are some of the ones I have been targeting and am hoping for big things from this year. I know - some of these guys don't really qualify as sleepers. Consider it a list of players I like drafting.

Anthony Randolph, PF, Warriors

Yes, Nellie is probably going to bring him off the bench to start the season, and yes, he is banged up (knee and back). He is also risky with Nellie as his coach, which is why he's already been demoted. But you simply can't ignore what he did in the final month of last season, Summer League and the preseason. You just can't. Is Round 4 or 5 too high at this point? Probably. But if you still want him, you'll have to jump on him in Round 5-7. Owners of Randolph will have to be patient this year and it's entirely possible that Nellie ruins him, turning him into a bust. But I'm keeping the faith and hope that when he's healthy, order is restored by a return to the starting five. But as fantasy veterans know, playing with Nellie is akin to playing with fire.

D.J. Augustin, G, Bobcats

With the news that Raja Bell could miss four months with wrist surgery, Augustin suddenly becomes relevant. In addition, rookie Gerald Henderson also becomes much more intriguing. Augustin should now be drafted in most leagues and should get plenty of minutes if Bell's injury is in fact long-term. He will hit a ton of threes and has proved he can score.

Tyrus Thomas, PF, Bulls

Thomas knows he's running out of chances and it seems to be now or never with him. I am keeping the faith that he'll break out this year and taking him in the middle rounds seems to still make sense. Kirk Hinrich is also interesting without Ben Gordon around, but I'd rather have a young guard like Tyreke Evans or Brandon Jennings.

J.R. Smith, SG, Nuggets

Seven-game suspension hurts, but he should have a big year. However, Brandon Rush might offer similar value later in your draft.

Rodney Stuckey, PG, Kwame Brown, F/C, Will Bynum, G, Pistons

Stuckey is scoring and locked into the starting job. Hopefully he hit threes and starts handing out more dimes, but I'm in if he's there late. Neither of the other two guys is probably draftable in standard leagues, but you'll simply want to keep your eye on them. Brown is a starting center but is dealing with a hand injury, while Bynum is getting some run in the backcourt, even with Stuckey healthy.

Stephen Curry, Anthony Morrow, C.J. Watson, G, Golden State

Who knows what Nellie will do next? Heck, he's even playing Acie Law, who is a small point guard, at power forward right now. But Curry has a ton of talent and Morrow shoots it lights out from downtown. They're currently in the second unit, but both players will make plenty of starts this year and should be solid late draft picks. And keep an eye on Watson, who looks like a starter at shooting guard – at least for the time being.

Carl Landry, Shane Battier, F, Trevor Ariza, F, Aaron Brooks, PG, Rockets

I like drafting Battier late, as he's going to start and should rack up a nice bit of production all year. He contributes in every category and I don't see how he can hurt a team with a late pick. Landry is also intriguing and is going to play this year. He doesn't block a ton of shots, but should be a source of boards and points. And for the record, I'm still good with Trevor Ariza despite the poor exhibition season and think he'll get better each month. He's lasting until the 7th or 8th round in most drafts, so the risk has been eliminated by his early struggles. I was down on Brooks early, but am coming around. A lot of points and threes, but not many dimes coming. Still offers value late.

Brandon Rush, SG, Roy Hibbert, C, Pacers

If you've been paying attention in the preseason, both guys have been lighting it up. Rush should start all season at SG, with or without Mike Dunleavy, and is going to hit a ton of threes. Hibbert has been on fire all preseason and looks like an amazing source of late boards and blocks. The 10th round sounds about right for both of them. In addition, if T.J. Ford's hamstring injury lingers, Earl Watson has to get some run. I wouldn't draft him, but keep an eye on him.

Andrew Bynum, C, Lakers

No, he's not a sleeper. But I am fully on board with him this season. He will hopefully stay healthy and if he does, he should outperform Brook Lopez. Lopez is going in Round 2, while Bynum is lasting until Rounds 4-6 in most drafts. The only reason is Bynum's injury record, but so far, so good. And yes, I like Lopez as well.

Rasual Butler, G/F, Chris Kaman, C, Clippers

There's a pretty decent chance that Butler has beaten out Al Thornton for the starting SF job in L.A. And if he hasn't, he's going to push him all year. Not sold on Kaman, but taking him in the last round makes sense. If he stays healthy, he will offer a lot of value. Don't draft him, but keep an eye on DeAndre Jordan, the third-string center. If Camby goes down for an extended period (he may already have) and Kaman struggles, Jordan could be a nice grab off the wire.

Michael Beasley, F, Heat

He's another guy who hasn't exactly torn it up in the preseason, but all the signs are there for him to produce. He's going to start and could score 16-20 points a game. He's another guy I think will get better every week, as long as the Heat don't kill his confidence and send him to the bench.

Ryan Gomes, F, Corey Brewer, SG, Jonny Flynn, PG, Oleksiy Pecherov, C, Timberwolves

Another season and another mess of chaos in Minnesota. With Kevin Love out until mid-December with a broken hand, and Al Jefferson gimpy with Achilles' tendinitis, it's wide open in Minneapolis. Gomes should be a solid player with Love out and is probably worth a late flier. Brewer is starting at SG and had another nice line on Thursday. I see no reason not to take him late. Flynn is still starting and playing well, and is absolutely crushing the potential value of Ramon Sessions. I see a timeshare coming for the pair all season, but I'll take the starter at the end of my drafts if I need a PG. Pecherov may not be draftable, but one look at his box scores will quickly intrigue you. In a deep league, take a look at Pecherov if all the playable centers are off the board. Just know that it does sound like Jefferson is going to start the season (but Love will not).

Brandon Jennings, PG, Hakim Warrick, F, Bucks

Jennings is a bit of mystery because you have to think Scott Skiles and he will butt heads at some point. But so far, so good and I don't care if he's starting or coming off the bench behind Luke Ridnour. I like him and think he's worth a late-round pick if you're in a bind at PG. Warrick had a great preseason and looks like a starter for the Bucks. He should be a good source of boards and points, but doesn't block shots. He may end up being the most reliable Buck around this season.
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Steve "Dr. A" Alexander is the senior editor for the NBA and PGA Tour for Rotoworld.com. The 2009-10 NBA season marks his eighth year of covering fantasy hoops for Rotoworld.com, and he was a Top 3 finalist for NBA Fantasy Writer of the Year in 2008-09. Follow him on Twitter at docktora.
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