Turning over a New Leaf?

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Gregg Rosenthal
The Morning After
October 22, 2007
Turning over a New Leaf?
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Mike Martz wasn't himself Sunday. His Lions opened the game featuring the run, and stuck with it. When Jon Kitna went back to pass, he got rid of the ball quickly to slow Tampa's pass rush. The conservative game plan led to an efficient (albeit lucky) win and a strong game by Kevin Jones. Owners of Lions wideouts not named Megatron were disappointed – Calvin Johnson defies the laws of fantasy football by scoring every five touches – and no Lion receiver had more than three targets.

Martz's strategy was intelligent, but could have a profound affect on fantasy leaguers. Jon Kitna was a season-ending surgery waiting to happen because of Detroit's offensive line, so the buttoned-up approach could help him stay healthy. Kevin Jones could be better than he was in 2006 as a top-ten fantasy option. But with four wideouts splitting up a smaller pie, Roy Williams and the flying Furreys might be inconsistent.

During the offseason, Kitna raised eyebrows with a pair of bold predictions:

1. The Lions would win ten games
2. Kitna could throw for 5,000 yards

For Kitna to keep Detroit on track with the first prediction, he has to give up on the second.

Stepping Off the Ledge

1. There is still hope for Lee Evans. For the second time in three Trent Edwards starts, Evans put up a solid afternoon with five catches and 98 yards. Evans was once a big play specialist, but his 54-yard grab was his first over 25 yards all season. Owners may not get the top-15 wideout they hoped for, but he could still be a solid WR3.

2. Anquan Boldin owners suffered through three missed games, but were treated to a gloriously odd return: eight catches, 29 yards, two touchdowns. That's PPR magic. Who needs yards when you can put up 22 fantasy points without them?

Don't Panic

1. Derrick Ward isn't going to be much of a flex option on weeks that Brandon Jacobs starts. But Jacobs' inability to stay healthy keeps Ward as a valuable reserve to stash on your bench.

2. One thing I've learned repeatedly on this job: owners (and analysts) should stick with the talent they truly believe in. Eventually, it will rise. And despite the awful fantasy day, I still believe Laurence Maroney will help teams this year. The Patriots, being the Patriots, choose to work Maroney into the mix slowly with only seven first-half snaps. That will increase in coming weeks.

Some Panic is Acceptable

1. After weeks of progress, the Washington passing game made the Cardinals look like the '85 Bears Sunday. Jason Campbell crumbled under the weight of a leaky offensive line, and Santana Moss has negative fantasy points over the last two weeks. He has fewer fantasy points this season than Jerheme Urban. A trip to New England this week won't solve things.

2. Shaun Alexander is mining new lows. When he can't crack 50 yards in back-to-back home games against New Orleans and St. Louis, it's hard to imagine him starting at running back in 2008 – in fantasy and reality.

3. Marc Bulger owners hoped that the two-week layoff would solve his problems, but he looked worse than ever. Three fumbles, three interceptions, and a propensity for holding on the ball way too long. The Rams didn't reach the red zone once, and Torry Holt dropped Bulger's only chance for a score.

4. I possess the maximum legal amount of Brandon Jacobs love, but the guy's inability to finish a single game healthy is a tease. He's been a force since returning from his knee injury in Week 5, but his status looks uncertain once again next week. The Giants might be smart to leave him behind on their trip to London. Both he and Ronnie Brown could get two weeks off to recover from injuries with a bye coming up.

5. Frank Gore's 111 total-yard effort against the G-Men was one of the gutsiest performances I've seen all year. Gore could barely walk in the second half, yet averaged 6.5 yards-per-touch for the game. It's a bad sign that Gore has to play lights out to have an average fantasy day. Call it the Trent Dilfer effect.

6. Stick a fork in Darrell Jackson this season. His quarterbacks aren't helping, but Jackson is getting outplayed by Arnaz Battle and has 12 combined yards over the last two weeks. He's a system wideout in a bad system. The Seahawks knew what they were doing when they dumped him.

7. In a season of disappointing veteran runners, Ahman Green's struggles are getting overlooked. His 71 total-yard (39 on the ground) effort was his best since Week 2. Yawn.

8. Nate Burleson has quietly been criticized in Seattle for failing to pick up the offense and not finishing his routes. On Sunday, he caught one of six targets headed his way. With D.J. Hackett on his way back, Burleson can be dropped in fantasy leagues.



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Gregg Rosenthal is the Managing Editor of Rotoworld.com and has directed its football content since 2003. He co-hosts the NBC Fantasy Fix and covers the NFL for NBCSports.com and Profootballtalk.com. Gregg was named the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year in 2007, but did not repeat in '08. He's out for vengeance now on Twitter.
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