Not to go all Tony Kornheiser on you, but I'm going to put on my columnist hat and think about some of the biggest storylines as we reach halftime of the 2008 fantasy football season.
Storylines I wasn't expecting to write about
1. LaDainian Tomlinson saved his season against the Saints
What a difference a week makes. Last Sunday, LT2 wasn't even on the field during crunch time against the Bills. Then Tomlinson pleaded to Norv Turner to put the gameplan on his shoulders, a bold move for a player who hasn't performed all season. Tomlinson responded.
The spin moves were back. He made people miss and broke tackles. Most importantly, he caught passes. Yes, it was against the Saints, but Tomlinson has many beaucoup matchups in the second half. The toe appears to be a non-factor and now he has a bye to get healthy. All is not solved in San Diego: the offensive line has issues and the defense will force the Chargers to play catch-up. Don't expect the '06 LT or even the second-half '07 LT, but Tomlinson showed he could be a top tier fantasy back again. He can beat up on the weaklings. That's all we ask.
2. There is no vaccination available for Lance Moore Fever
Who cares if Marques Colston is back? Lance Moore fever is a sickness with no known cure. Moore dropped a soccer-style celebration on the Wembley crowd Sunday after hauling in a ridiculous touchdown toss from Drew Brees. Moore's numbers can be inconsistent, but he consistently gets red zone targets and has topped 75 yards in four out of the last six games. Saints passing attack is good enough to support a few quality fantasy options. That may not be great news long-term for Colston, but he'll round into form. Buy low as the Saints hit their bye week.
3. Todd Heap is done
It's not all Joe Flacco; Derrick Mason still makes plays. Perhaps all the injuries over the years have finally caught up to Heap. He's not even blocking well. I talked myself into using him as a matchup play against the Raiders. Oakland's safeties can't cover tight ends, but they can cover Heap to the tune of two catches for 17 yards. Joe Flacco was a better receiver than Heap Sunday. Heap is no longer even a matchup play. I won't make the mistake again. That's to say about a guy who was on a Hall of Fame track at one point in his career.
While we're on the Ravens, Mark Clayton has not returned to the face of the Earth after falling off it last year.
4. Three rookie receivers who weigh under 190 pounds are legitimate fantasy starters
Welcome aboard Donnie Avery, DeSean Jackson, and Eddie Royal! Avery was supposedly the biggest reach on draft day; the most raw wideout taken on the first day of the draft. Now he is the entire Rams passing attack. The Patriots defense couldn't handle his speed Sunday, and Avery is already an expert at mid-air adjustments. That comes in handy when Marc Bulger keeps under throwing passes.
Jackson led the Eagles in receiving in Kevin Curtis' first game back, showing that Fraction's incredible start has legs. Royal, who just enjoyed the bye week, has spoiled his owners since a monster Week 1. Size is most definitely not everything at wide receiver in today's NFL.
This was supposed to be the worst rookie wideout class in years, but this trio has proven once again how tough it is for evaluators to know which pass-catchers will step up at the pro level.
5. Darren McFadden isn't in my top-five rookie running backs going forward
Turf toe is a bitch. So is the Ravens defense, so it's just as well he missed Sunday. Justin Fargas didn't do much better.
6. Santana Moss is back to his 2005 prime
It was easy to forget Moss was a receiver capable of putting up nearly 1,500 yards. Just like in '05, Moss will have off weeks. Live with them if he goes over 140 yards every few games. Moss is one of the smartest receivers in football, and his improved health allows him to run beautiful routes. Including his punt return score against the Lions, he has six touchdowns on the season.
7. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dan Orlovsky, and Brad Johnson matter
These backups aren't in fantasy lineups, but their wide receivers are. Fitzpatrick couldn't go deep against the Texans, which is a horrible sign for T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson owners. The Bengals Pro Bowlers have turned into generic WR3s who rack up short catches. (PPR leaguers can take solace.)
Orlovsky continues to post deceptively competent numbers. Calvin Johnson owners should remain concerned because it's a mirage. Brad Johnson only has one week left as a starter, we hope, but he's rendered Terrell Owens irrelevant.
8. Fred Jackson is a drain on Marshawn Lynch's value
Lynch owners wondered early Sunday if their star was hurt when Jackson took three straight snaps inside the five-yard line. Nope, the Bills just like Fred Jackson that much. They also played Jackson throughout crunch time last week before over Lynch. It's hard to blame the cagey Dick Jauron; Jackson often looks like the better player. Jackson could make the Pro Bowl at fullback if they lined him up there more often.
While this is a concern, it was Lynch who scored a touchdown late for Buffalo. The man with the best grill in the NFL is still managing to live up to his top-ten draft billing. He's doing things he didn't as a rookie: score and catch passes. Jackson may just prevent Lynch from reaching top-five insanity, but he's steady during a season when many top backs are not.
9. The former Lion has officially become "Roy E. Williams"
10.Steve Breaston is the most valuable third receiver in the league
Even with Anquan Boldin back, Breaston caught nine passes for 91 yards against Carolina. Boldin added to his league-leading total of touchdown catches with two more. He now has eight. Larry Fitzgerald led the trio with 115 yards. Every fantasy owner goes home happy.
11. Kurt Warner is making a legitimate case for league MVP
He wouldn't get my vote, but he'd get my others receiving votes. More importantly, Warner is a fantasy MVP candidate once again. Aside from the Jets game, he's mostly avoided turnover meltdowns. His 381-yard, two-touchdown effort against the previously stingy Panthers defense cemented Brenda's baby as matchup-proof. Warner will keep throwing like crazy because of a shaky defense and worse running game. He's overdue to get hurt, but owners should enjoy the run while it lasts.
12. Steve Smith is the most consistent fantasy wideout alive
I didn't see Jake Delhomme coming back from Tommy John surgery better than new. I was wrong. After a year with David Carr, Smith loves life and making plays absolutely no other YACrabbit can make.
13. Selvin Young belongs on many waiver wires
With Michael Pittman playing well and Ryan Torain returning, Young is going to be an explosive third banana off the bench for Denver. He didn't help fantasy teams much as the first banana. He's not worth keeping in shallow formats.
14. Matt Forte was the second best runner from Tulane in October
Take a bow, Mewelde Moore. I have serious doubts Willie Parker would have gone for 94 total yards and a touchdown against the G-Men. Steelers fans: Let me know if you think if the Steelers are a better offense with Willie Parker as the starter. Luckily, the Steelers coaches will soon get to use both backs.
15. Chad Pennington is on pace for 3,723 yards
295 yards against an awesome Ravens defense and 314 yards against an excellent Bills defense in successive weeks. The NFL's all-time leader in completion percentage deserves a little respect! Now if only the Wildcat wasn't stealing all the touchdowns.
Storylines I should have known I'd be writing about
1. Jets fans wish they still had Chad Pennington
The only real surprise here is that it took until Week 8 for NBCSports.com superproducer Matt Casey to voice every Jets fan's latent desire. Of course that thought came right around when Brett Favre's latest bone-headed interception nearly torpedoed Gang Green's season.
2. The Chargers secondary has fallen apart
Ted Cottrell – Shawn Merriman = Chargers secondary before '07.
3. J.T. O'Sullivan lost his job by midseason
Mike Singletary rightly pulled JTurnOver just before halftime against the Seahawks after a brutal interception return for a touchdown. (One can question Singletary for not taking the ball out of O'Sullivan's hands by calling for a field goal on fourth and four to make it a one-score game, but one wouldn't question Singletary to his face. He's scary.)
We'll see how much pull Mike Martz has during the bye week because JTO is his man. But O'Sullivan is hard to defend after that performance against a dreadful Seattle defense. Yards-per-attempt (YPA) is my favorite catchall stat for quarterbacks, but JTO's top-eight ranking in the category shows its limitations.
Shaun Hill, by the way, won't save your season. Expect more dink and dunks, which could help Frank Gore, but hurt the 49ers wideouts.
4. Trent Edwards is the guy we thought David Garrard would be
Until Sunday, that is. Edwards had his worst game of the season in Miami, but until then he was racking up steady yardage with minimal turnovers. Bad games happen, and Edwards is still averaging 7.7 YPA and completing 68% of his passes. He's made a quick maturation to rock solid QB2. Considering the poise he showed as a rookie, this shouldn't be such a surprise.
5. Lee Evans is one of the best five receivers in the NFL
See above. Evans' talent has always been there, but now he's getting help. Although he's averaging 20 yards-per-catch, he's no longer just a deep threat. Evans sets up defenders well and can make tough catches in tight quarters. He showed off his whole repertoire in a seven-catch, 116-yard effort against Miami. He's on pace for 1,389 yards and the touchdowns will come.
6. The Ravens defense is all the way back. The Titans defense never left.
Storylines I was expecting to write about
1. Derek Anderson has job security issues
The frustrating part for Brady Quinn Nation is that their fair-haired Republican was this close to playing this week, just like before the Giants game. Anderson only seems to play well with his job on the line, going vertical to Braylon Edwards and Syndric Steptoe in a much-needed effort against the Jaguars. It was uneven, but it was enough. They offense moved the ball consistently. Good news for Quinn lovers: the Ravens are next on Cleveland's schedule.
2. Edgerrin James is slipping fast
The Cardinals running game bottomed out Sunday against Carolina. Edge had seven carries for 17 yards. Tim Hightower had only three yards on six carries, but made a fantastic cutback run for a touchdown. He also lined up wide near the goal line. The Cardinals aren't even trying to run anymore.
3. Joey Galloway is finally looking his age (37)
He was overdue. At least Galloway looked spry in his return to the field against the Cowboys, getting open for three catches and 38 yards. So at least he topped his age, which is almost like shooting your age in golf, but the bar is set much lower. Jeff Garcia missed Galloway another time for a potential big play. Galloway looks like a boom-or-bust WR3 play moving forward.
4. The Lions running game is worthless
One of my favorite indignant reader emails of the year told me it was impossible for all the Lions runners to be busts, as if it didn't happen the year before. Tatum Bell didn't make it to opening day, and Kevin Smith isn't talented enough to overcome Detroit's offensive line. Rudi Johnson isn't either. Maybe no one is.
5. Torry Holt aged hard
The signs were there. He couldn't do anything after the catch last season and the speed is waning. I figured Holt would get enough targets to make up for decreasing efficiency. The Rams offense collapsed around him and Holt can no longer overcome double teams. Take away a fluky 45-yard touchdown and Holt has 244 yards in seven games. This is one first-half bust that I don't believe will truly bounce back.
6. The Seahawks running backs are canceling each other out
It took longer than expected, but Maurice Morris and Julius Jones are officially splitting carries. Jones started against San Francisco, but Morris started the second half and finished with more carries. They both did squat against a soft 49ers rush defense, then watched Leonard bleeping Weaver break off two touchdowns over 40 yards. No one said this was fair. Or predictable.
,7. Antonio Gates has rounded into shape without hurting his fantasy owners
Gates finally looked like himself Sunday, getting separation from Saints defenders and showing quickness on his way to 96 yards and a touchdown. Gates managed to produce in the first half despite being a lesser version of himself. Expect him to be the best fantasy tight end in the second half after being the second best in the first half.
8. Frank Gore is on pace for nearly 2,000 total yards, but his teammates are letting him down
His season is setting up to be similar to his breakout 2006 campaign: tons of yards, 60+ receptions, not enough touchdowns, and a steady top-eight running back finish that makes you dreamily imagine what he could do on a real NFL offense. Maybe only I do that.
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Gregg Rosenthal is the Managing Editor of Rotoworld.com and has directed its football content since 2003. He co-hosts the NBC Fantasy Fix and covers the NFL for NBCSports.com and Profootballtalk.com. Gregg was named the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year in 2007, but did not repeat in '08. He's out for vengeance now on Twitter. |
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