Free agency's start is a good reminder how different fantasy football is from the real thing. While many big-name skill position guys were taken lightly, defenders like Colin Cole, Domonique Foxworth, and Rocky Bernard quickly struck gold.
If you know who those players are and where they signed, you are a true Rotoworld diehard. (Bonus points for contract terms!) Thanks go out to everyone who helped us crush our previous off-season traffic records the last two weeks.
The pace of the news will downshift this week, so let's take stock of the free agency frenzy thus far, Morning After style.
Don't Panic
1. Expectations for T.J. Houshmandzadeh should be lower away from the Bengals. Starting from that perspective, the Seahawks are a decent fit for the possession receiver.
He's transitioning to a new system, but Housh's precise routes and toughness over the middle fit well in the West Coast offense. He'll move the chains. My biggest concern is that Seattle will run more often and pass less effectively under Jim Mora. Houshmandzadeh isn't a true number one receiver, but he may see increased attention.
Housh should remain a PPR force, but he no longer has top-12 upside. Expect borderline WR2/3 production, and you won't be disappointed.
2. My thoughts on the Terrell Owens signing are documented in this column, so I won't repeat too much here. His projection takes a hit in Buffalo, but it's not devastating. Knock him down a tier below the top-ten wideouts, but Owens will be motivated to prove he can still produce. He will get enough red zone targets.
Our football coverage never stops, but it's baseball draft season. Check out our baseball draft guide for the best projections and outlooks in the business.
Short, Declarative Sentences About Defenses
The Giants will be impossible to block. Albert Haynesworth will make Washington's ends more productive. Baltimore can survive their losses. The Broncos still have a long way to go. Best value signings: Sean Jones to the Eagles, Bryant McFadden to the Cardinals.
Some Panic is Acceptable
1. In a stunning upset, the Denver backfield is more annoying after Mike Shanahan's departure. Josh McDaniels is rocking quantity over quality strategy by signing Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan, and J.J. Arrington.
Shanny holdovers Peyton Hillis, Selvin Young, and Ryan Torain remain in the mix, but their roster spots aren't guaranteed. Nothing is guaranteed here. The only certainty is that Denver is headed for a committee, probably three men deep. Expect roles to fluctuate.
Despite a great quarterback and offensive line, it's hard to imagine drafting any Denver runner in the top-75 picks in August.
2. Many former fantasy factors remain available at running back, with few roles available. A deep draft class will make it harder to find work for the following aging threats: Warrick Dunn, Ahman Green, Rudi Johnson, Deuce McAllister, Michael Pittman, Shaun Alexander, and Dominic Rhodes.
It doesn't take long to transition from a fantasy starter to out of the league.
3. Former first-round quarterbacks Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Patrick Ramsey, and J.P. Losman can't find work, and the quarterback carousel only has a few spots available. Jeff Garcia may also have reached the end of the road.
4. Current events indicate the market isn't always wise. But the NFL's distaste for aging wideouts makes sense. While marginal younger wideouts get jobs, Marvin Harrison, Joey Galloway, Bobby Engram, Drew Bennett, and Amani Toomer are unemployed. Some of them will find gigs, but revived fantasy relevance would be an upset.
Home is where the value is
1. Kurt Warner is a huge risk anywhere except Arizona. With the best trio of wideouts in football and a system perfectly suited for his skills, Warner will produce. As long he can stay upright.
2. Kerry Collins is back with the Titans at a huge salary, so he'll start as long as the Titans continue winning. The team added Nate Washington, but that's not nearly enough to make Collins put up fantasy-worthy numbers. The Titans could add another quarterback, which doesn't speak well for Vince Young's future.
3. The Bengals paid Cedric Benson $3 million for 2009, which splits the line between starter money and quality backup. I'm not convinced Benson is a quality anything, so hopefully the Bengals add a rookie to the mix. Returning to Cincy was Benson's best chance, by far, of putting up 1,000 yards. At this stage, Benson is slated for as many carries as he can handle.
4. Bo Scaife is back with the Titans! This excites Jeff Fisher much more than it should excite you.
Home is not where the value is
Darren Sproles may be San Diego's "franchise player," but the Chargers don't see him in a leading role. He's valuable enough on returns and as a change-of-pace back. Sproles' touches should go up in 2009, but not enough to make him a consistent fantasy starter.
LaDainian Tomlinson's possible departure would help, but the safe bet is that Sproles won't be a starter either way.
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Gregg Rosenthal is the Managing Editor of Rotoworld.com and has directed its football content since 2003. He co-hosts the NBC Fantasy Fix and covers the NFL for NBCSports.com and Profootballtalk.com. Gregg was named the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year in 2007, but did not repeat in '08. He's out for vengeance now on Twitter. |
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