Matchups: Don't Give Up Yet

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Bill Barnwell
Matchups
September 28, 2007
Matchups: Don't Give Up Yet
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PRINTER FRIENDLY Matchups Archives
 

After three weeks of action, we're getting to the point where injuries are becoming significant and dramatically affecting matchup analysis. Not only are players like Deuce McAllister and Steven Jackson out of fantasy lineups, but offenses are missing stud left tackles like Orlando Pace and Jonathan Ogden, while defenses have seen difference-makers like Tommie Harris and Lance Briggs go down.

The impact these players have on the performance of the teams is as much, if not more, than losing a skill position player. Take Pace, for example. In the first nine weeks of the 2006 season, when Pace was healthy, Marc Bulger averaged 6.8 yards per pass and threw only one interception while averaging 24 fantasy points per game. Pace went down for the year in Week 10. Over those last eight weeks, Bulger averaged 5.6 yards per pass, threw seven interceptions, and averaged 19 fantasy points per game. That's bigger than the difference between Peyton Manning and Drew Brees.

While it's pretty much impossible to quantify the effects that losing one specific player will have on a particular offense or defense, these are things to keep in mind as you set your matchups for the week and try to determine how a player is affected by the team he's actually facing, not the team he would've faced at the beginning of the campaign.

Quarterback

The most fascinating matchup of the week is Peyton Manning against the Broncos. Manning's been death from above for the Broncos since Reggie Wayne emerged as his secondary target in 2002. Including the playoff games and ignoring a Week 17 performance where Manning only played one drive, Manning's averaged over 26 fantasy points per game against the Broncos. However, the Broncos defense has changed; previously, Manning would pick on whichever cornerback was across from Champ Bailey.

Now, though, the very effective Dre' Bly is across from Bailey, not Roc Alexander. Furthermore, through three weeks, the Broncos pass defense has been otherworldly, albeit against middling passing offenses. Should you bench Manning this week? It seems almost impossible, but if you play in a deep league and have a very good quarterback behind him with an excellent matchup (e.g. Tony Romo vs. St. Louis or even Jeff Garcia vs. Carolina), I'd consider benching Manning this week. Against great pass defenses, Manning averages only 17 fantasy points per start -- still a decent number, but numbers in line with Tom Brady's performance last year with no receivers as opposed to the usual dominance of Manning.

The Arizona quarterback situation is all a mess with Matt Leinart and Kurt Warner splitting time last week. While it's possible we may see the Warner Package again this week from the Cardinals, it doesn't really matter who gets the bulk of the playing time when the Cardinals are up against a Steelers pass defense that has pulverized opposing quarterbacks this year. Leave them on your bench.

The bloom is coming off the rose of Derek Anderson, and with Baltimore rolling into town, well, expect much bloom to be removed forcefully and at great velocity. Anderson has no place in your lineup this week.

The Kansas City offense has shown little to nothing this season, and Damon Huard is rumored to be on the hotseat. With that being said, Huard's up this week against a porous Chargers secondary, and with the Chargers at home, expect the Chiefs to be trailing for most of the game. If Huard doesn't get benched, he's likely to have 300+ yards while throwing 40 + attempts. Identifying and playing those quarterbacks in proper weeks are hidden ways to pick up points in fantasy.

While the Giants put it together for a half last week and were able to come back and defeat Washington, the reasons why had more to do with Joe Gibbs' and Al Saunders' collective chutzpah than a great performance from the secondary. The Redskins ran their screen- and sweep-based offense without allowing for the fact that the Giants are effective at tackling out in the flat and are good in pursuit, but struggle with passes in the middle of the field and counter plays.

The Eagles are one of the best teams in the leagues at matching their gameplan to the opposition's defensive weaknesses, and they also love to get the ball to their receivers in short-distance situations and allow them to exploit poor tackling; Donovan McNabb had the highest yards after catch average in the league for passes he threw in 2006, and he was second in 2005. Expect the Eagles to exploit the Giants secondary with short passes, and while McNabb won't put up the numbers he did last week, 300 yards is entirely possible.

Running Back

You can also expect Brian Westbrook to put up a big game against the Giants, either through the air, on the ground, or if the Eagles want to break the Giants' fans hearts again, in the return game. Ignoring his return numbers, Westbrook's averaged 24.5 points against the Giants since 2003. Of course, Westbrook is a must-play every week, but expect huge things out of him.

While we at Football Outsiders expected the Oakland pass defense to be swell this year, we weren't as sanguine about their ability to stop the run. With that being said, they've been far worse than we expected so far, as they've had the worst rush defense in football through three weeks. Expect Ronnie Brown to exploit that in much the same way he exploited the Jets' leaky run defense last week.

The second-worst rush defense in the league has been Detroit, who should be better considering the amount of money being paid to their defensive tackles, Shaun Rogers and Cory Redding. They go up against Cedric Benson and the Bears this week, and with Brian Griese arising to the starter's chair, expect the Bears to play it conservatively this week and pound the ball with Benson. He's a good play.

The other struggling rush defense is Buffalo, who were manhandled by the Patriots last week. The Jets don't offer the same downfield threat, but the struggles open up possibilities for Thomas Jones, who finally had his big game last week in the defeat of Miami. He's likely to see 100 yards again on Sunday.

As good as Minnesota's run defense was last year, it's been even better through three weeks this season. This week's unlucky victim is the Packers cavalcade of backs, who already are splitting time to begin with. None of them are worth a play on your roster this week; bench DeShawn Wynn, Vernand Morency, Brandon Jackson, Edgar Bennett, Dorsey Levens, Darrell Thompson, Eddie Lee Ivery...just make sure no running back with GB in his team name is in your lineup this week.

Not to dump on Cleveland's surprisingly potent offense through three weeks, but Jamal Lewis' matchup against his old mates in Baltimore isn't likely to be a pretty one. Expect Lewis to put up one of his 15-carry, 48 yard specials.

Wide Reciever

While I did mention my reservations about playing Peyton Manning or the Arizona crew this week at quarterback, I can't say the same about playing their wideouts. We're not sure how either team will cover the assorted weaponry of their quarterbacks, so it's entirely possible that Marvin Harrison could have a big game while Reggie Wayne gets shut out, or Dallas Clark has a big game while Harrison and Wayne both put up pedestrian numbers. Play your wideouts as you normally would in those situations, and hope for the best.

Has everyone gotten off the Lee Evans bandwagon yet? Fortunately, I'm sure you all listened to the emergency exit and evacuation procedures when you hopped on, so everyone should be ok. Evans represents one of the great buy low, sell high opportunities in fantasy history at the moment, and that starts right now, as he's up against a Jets pass defense that has looked very iffy the first three weeks of the season.

While Darnelle Revis is going to be a very good corner in the league someday, those who have played opposite him have looked absolutely awful. The Jets don't match up their corners regularly against a specific wideout, so even with Trent Edwards behind center, get Evans in there. He had two 90+ yard games against the Jets last year, and averaged 18 points in the two matchups.

Of course, the Buffalo secondary hasn't looked very good either. While Terrence McGee is likely to be back this week, it's not as if he's, say, Nate Clements. Watch out for big days from Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles.

The Giants will also be struggling with the Eagles receivers this week. The wideout best-positioned to benefit from that is actually Kevin Curtis, the best short-yardage receiver the Eagles have. Expect Curtis to operate over the middle and put up, oh, half the yardage he did last week while still being effective. Remember how I said Evans was one of the great buy low, sell high opportunities in history? Curtis will join him after this week.

The Dallas pass defense has been pretty stout the last couple of weeks, even without Terence Newman in a full-time role. As Newman returns to health, the Cowboys defense will get even stouter, and that does not bode well for the decaying remains of the Rams offense. Keep Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce out of your lineup this week.

Tight End

Smart starts: Matt Schobel (PHI), Jeff King (CAR), Heath Miller (PIT)

Avoid: Visante Shiancoe (MIN), David Martin (MIA)



 

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