We ranked keepers #31-50 on Thursday; Now it's time for the big boys. If you are a looking for more time-wasting year-end lists, head over to Pancake Blocks for our top-ten busts of the season.
Top 30 Keepers
30. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals - Despite playing through injuries, he still wound up in the top-12 receivers in per-game numbers. A switch back to Matt Leinart would be a concern, but not devastating.
29. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars - With Fred Taylor earning another year in a committee, MoJo's top-five talent will have to wait to be fully realized.
28. Tony Romo, Cowboys - Another receiver would be nice, but Romo is locked and loaded for a long run among the fantasy elite.
27. Ryan Grant, Packers - The Packers could bring in competition, but they are probably happy with their young guys backing up Grant. Like Willie Parker, he needs to work on gaining four-to-five yards on the plays he doesn't gain fifty.
26. Brandon Jacobs, Giants - Sure, I've got a weakness for The Train. There are many reasons not to keep him, like the injuries, his hands, and the presence of Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw.
But through all the disappointment, Jacobs was third in the NFL in rushing yards-per-game, and eighth in fantasy points per-game at running back. He can be a good RB2 even without 20 carries a game.
25. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals – Who's his agent? Housh reportedly wasn't happy about his contract this season, and is likely to make more noise in the offseason if he doesn't get a new deal. Look for an extension to happen.
24. Steve Smith, Panthers- Another PPR power. Jake Delhomme will help, but he's no sure thing after major shoulder surgery. Smith's numbers this season wound up being not too different than 2006 anyhow.
Smith is a great NFL receiver who has been overrated in fantasy leagues, including by myself. He's topped 1,200 yards once in seven seasons. He's topped eight touchdowns once. He has four good seasons, plus an injured year, since he emerged. In three of the four, he's been Donald Driver. Good, not great. He has some monster years left, but the only advantage he has over Marques Colston and Brandon Marshall is that he's done it for longer.
23. Marques Colston, Saints - So much for that sophomore slump. I love physical possession receiver stars like Colston because they are often more consistent week-to-week and year-to-year.
22. Brandon Marshall, Broncos - Tough guy to rank. Players like Steve Smith and Houshmandzadeh have rarely, if ever, reached the highs Marshall did in his second season. The Broncos will probably dump Javon Walker, although it's hard to imagine The Beast getting more targets after leading the league. Marshall has a slightly higher ceiling and lower floor than the other receivers ranked around him. We'll take the risk.
21. Marion Barber, Cowboys - Julius Jones is probably leaving. The only slight concern is that the Cowboys still seem to worry that Barber can't hold up to 350 touches. But he scores plenty with 250.
20. Larry Johnson, Chiefs - Even if he comes back as the old L.J., which is a huge question mark, he needs some teammates to help him score.
19. Peyton Manning, Colts - His worst season of the decade was in 2005: 3,745 yards and 28 touchdowns during a year he rested the last two weeks. Absolutely no risk in keeping him.
18. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals - Put up exactly the same numbers in 2005 and 2007: 1,409 yards and ten scores. A healthy Matt Leinart and Anquan Boldin could cut into next year some, but he's a safe WR1.
17. Willie Parker, Steelers - All reports indicate that he'll make a full recovery. Parker was making strides in rounding out his game this year, but still doesn't help much on passing downs.
16. Willis McGahee, Ravens - Needs some help at quarterback and head coach, but it can't get much worse. An young offensive line will keep him consistent.
15. Andre Johnson, Texans - The Texans have a passing game! The Texans have other receivers than A.J.! Johnson was on pace for 1,512 yards and 15 scores if he had avoided the knee injury.
14. Terrell Owens, Cowboys - Will be 35 next season, coming off a major injury. He's shown no signs of decline, but it has to happen eventually - right?
13. Chad Johnson, Bengals – Set a career high in yards in down year. As safe as it gets – if he stays in Cincy. Johnson may request a trade in the offseason, but the most likely scenario is a return to the Bengals.
12. Reggie Wayne, Colts - Like Addai at running back, there is virtually no downside in keeping Wayne. You can't ask for much more.
11. Braylon Edwards, Browns - A switch to Brady Quinn could slow down numbers, but Edwards should be a top-10 wideout for the next eight years.
10. Marshawn Lynch, Bills - If Trent Edwards shows normal progression, Lynch should have far more chances to score next year.
9. Clinton Portis, Redskins - Improved receiving numbers helped Portis back to the land of the RB1s. Hopefully Gibbs doesn't wear him out during the playoff run.
8. Tom Brady, Patriots - Tricky. Brady had never topped 30 touchdowns in his career before this season, but the Patriots aren't going to turn into a run-first team suddenly. Expect a significant decline, but he's still the favorite to be the top quarterback next year.
7. Frank Gore, 49ers - Sixth in yards-per-scrimmage, ninth among running backs in fantasy points, and a 4.2 ypc average on one of the worst offenses of the decade. You think we're jumping off the bandwagon after that?
6. Randy Moss, Patriots - We suspect he'll be back with New England on a short-term, high paying deal.
5. Joseph Addai, Colts – He faded late, and hasn't quite proven he can carry the ball 300 times yet. On the Colts, he doesn't really need to in order to score 15 times. He has the least amount of downside of anyone after LT2.
4. Steven Jackson, Rams - Occasionally inconsistent, but Jackson ran with the best aggression of his career down the stretch of 2007. That's a great sign considering the lack of offensive line help.
3. Brian Westbrook, Eagles - Westbrook carried my office league team this season, and I'd vote for him as the most valuable non-QB in the NFL this season. So why does my gut want to rank Addai and Steven Jackson higher?
It shouldn't be the durability question. He's small, but he's only missed two games combined the last two seasons. News maven Evan Silva tires of the weekly questionable tag, but I can overlook that for the modern day Marshall Faulk. I'm going to debate spots spots two-through-five all offseason. For now, Westbrook gets the nod because only one other player was within 450 total yards of him.
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings – Riskier than the rest of the top-five, but he's the best chance to go completely bananas and set single-season records.
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers – Peterson's slow finish will end any debate for the top spot in 2008.
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Gregg Rosenthal is the Managing Editor of Rotoworld.com and has directed its football content since 2003. He co-hosts the NBC Fantasy Fix and covers the NFL for NBCSports.com and Profootballtalk.com. Gregg was named the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year in 2007, but did not repeat in '08. He's out for vengeance now on Twitter. |
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