February is for the fantasy football addict. While most owners hibernate or turn to baseball, the junkies turn to the Scouting Combine and Free Agency. Or they participate in a Mock Draft the day after the Super Bowl.
The results below are more entertaining than instructive. With free agency and the NFL Draft ready to shake up fantasy value, this draft is like a presidential poll taken six months before the first primary. Let's take a look.
Special thanks to Smitty at FantasyFootballXtreme.com for setting up the draft. For a complete look at our draft (still in progress), check out the league site.
Round One
1.01. "Smitty", Fantasy Football Extreme – Adrian Peterson
1.02 – Football Diehards – LaDainian Tomlinson
1.03 – Brad Evans, Yahoo Sports – Brian Westbrook
1.04 – The FootballExpert.com – Joseph Addai
1.05 – Jamey Eisenberg, CBSSportsline – Tom Brady
1.06 – Rotoworld – Steven Jackson
1.07 – Andy Behrens, Yahoo Sports– Larry Johnson
1.08 – JunkyardJake.com – Peyton Manning
1.09 – Russ Bliss, FantasyFootballStarters.com – Frank Gore
1.10 – Dave Richard, CBS Sportsline – Clinton Portis
1.11 – Dan Labert, Fantasy Tailgate.com – Willis McGahee
1.12 – Adam Lasik, FantasyWhiz.com – Ryan Grant
My pick: Jackson was a no-brainer at that stage. Anyone in that slot makes the same pick.
It's early, but I see a big drop-off after the top five running backs. I'm debating whether Jackson should be ahead of Adrian Peterson for the number two slot next year. Once he returned from injury in the second half of the year, he played as expected.
Shadiest Pick: Larry Johnson – I'd rather not take a quarterback so high, but those picks won't kill you. I'm not optimistic Kansas City is going to turn their offense or offensive line around. I don't see LJ as a first-round pick.
Trends, Etc: With Peterson off the board first, I knew it was a new year. Don't expect that to happen often, but the reasoning is understandable. He's a bigger boom-or-bust than the rest of the top five, but his "boom" could include league records. You are buying a lottery ticket, but I'd rather go safe in round one. It would help Peterson out greatly if Chester Taylor was dealt, but that isn't likely to happen.
Brady's big year is going to push him into the first round, but the over/under on his touchdowns next season is closer to 30 than 50. With solid, unspectacular backs like Portis and McGahee in the first round, I can't kill taking a sure thing quarterback.
I would expect Gore to fall further in most drafts after his down year. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my part. … Ryan Grant is locked in to the Packers starting job, so he deserves to go this high.
Round Two
2.01. Marshawn Lynch
2.02. Reggie Bush
2.03. Willie Parker
2.04. Marion Barber
2.05. Larry Fitzgerald
2.06. Randy Moss
2.07. Rotoworld - Terrell Owens
2.08. Earnest Graham
2.09. Jamal Lewis
2.10. Brandon Jacobs
2.11. Reggie Wayne
2.12. Ronnie Brown
Best Value: Randy Moss – The odds are heavily weighted towards him staying in New England and finding a way to score 15 more times.
Shadiest Pick: Reggie Bush – Even if Deuce McAllister doesn't return 100%, the Saints have Pierre Thomas behind Bush and should bring back Aaron Stecker. Bush hasn't shown he can handle the load. He's not going to hit 250 carries and this also isn't a PPR league.
Trends, Etc: Marshawn Lynch needs some help from his teammates, but he should be one of the safest fantasy picks in the league. … Barber has been worth this draft slot the last few years because of his scores. With Julius Jones leaving, Barber may wind up getting taken in the first round by August. It depends on whom the Cowboys wind up pairing him with.
Earnest Graham is an interesting case. He deserves to carry the load in Tampa, but I'm not sure he'll get the chance. Even if Cadillac Williams doesn't make it back, look for Jon Gruden to add a quality back to the mix. … Ronnie Brown's ACL tear didn't hurt his stock as much as one would expect. Same goes for Ahmad Bradshaw's emergence and Brandon Jacobs' stock. Either way, the sure-thing running backs are gone at this point.
Round Three
3.01. Michael Turner
3.02. Andre Johnson
3.03. Braylon Edwards
3.04. T.J. Houshmandezadeh
3.05. Maurice Jones-Drew
3.06. Rotoworld - Chad Johnson
3.07. Darren McFadden
3.08. Steve Smith
3.09. Plaxico Burress
3.10. Marques Colston
3.11. Torry Holt
3.12. Wes Welker
My Pick: I was set to take Mo-Jo as my RB2, but saw a big drop-off at running back after that. It wasn't worth reaching for my next name. Considering Ocho Cinco set his career high in yards in 2007, I'm not worried about his production or any trade rumors. He's stuck in Cincy whether he likes it or not.
Best value: Jones-Drew was frustrating to own in 2007, but Fred Taylor is another year older and less likely to repeat his performance. Mo-Jo is a solid third round back because he'll score.
Trends, Etc: There were a few signs in this round how this draft was a fun exercise, but shouldn't be taken too seriously. I didn't even realize we were allowed to take impending rookies. Giving them a draft slot before knowing their NFL team is just guesswork, but McFadden will be worth their draft slot.
The same goes for taking Michael Turner. I agree Turner will be worth this spot as a starter, if not higher, and he'll probably get in a favorable situation with plenty of backfields undecided around the league.
It was interesting to see Johnson go after teammate Houshmandzadeh for the first time in memory. Old favorites Steve Smith and Torry Holt got sent down a round because of some slowdown in their performance. Smith especially had a good excuse and could be a good value next year.
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Gregg Rosenthal is the Managing Editor of Rotoworld.com and has directed its football content since 2003. He co-hosts the NBC Fantasy Fix and covers the NFL for NBCSports.com and Profootballtalk.com. Gregg was named the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year in 2007, but did not repeat in '08. He's out for vengeance now on Twitter. |
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