Projected Pass Attempts

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Gregg Rosenthal
Draft Analysis
July 15, 2008
Projected Pass Attempts
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Fantasy owners obsess about how many touches a starting running back gets. It makes sense; If Laurence Maroney doesn't get the ball consistently, his chances to score big fantasy points will be limited.

For some reason, we don't apply the same logic to quarterbacks. Pass attempt totals are overlooked when evaluating signal callers. While pass attempt totals tend to bunch together more closely than touches, they can still make a huge difference. Drew Brees threw 192 more passes in 2007 than his old teammate Philip Rivers. Per-pass, they were almost identical in their effectiveness. Brees scored 2.03 fantasy points-per-pass, while Rivers was at 1.99. But Brees' pass wacky ways made him a true fantasy starter, while Rivers was a mediocre backup.

I start my offseason rankings by projecting every team's pass attempt totals for the season, dividing the attempts up, and then working from that number. A player like Ben Roethlisberger with consistently low attempts or someone with job security questions like Matt Leinart naturally suffer. Their margin for error is slim. And as Brees owners will tell you, huge margins for error are awesome. Below are my rankings for projected attempts for the 2008 season.

Note: With each player, I've included their total attempts from last season, the average number of team passing attempts in their current offensive system (usually with same head coach or coordinator), and my projected attempts for the season. In certain cases like Donovan McNabb and Marc Bulger where injuries play a factor, I've also include a player's personal average in his current system.

On Another Level

1. Drew Brees, Saints| Avg. Team Attempts: 603| 2007 Attempts: 652
Projected Attempts: 580


Attempts are the great equalizer for Brees; they make him among the safest picks in fantasy leagues. Even after projecting a 72-attempt drop, which brings him back to a land where his team occasionally runs or makes a defensive stop, we project him to have a 30 attempt jump on the field. That will help prevent any long slumps because his yardage will stay high.

He will need that advantage if his big plays don't rebound from a sub-par 2007. Knowing Sean Payton, this offense is never going to be totally balanced.

The 500 Level

2. Carson Palmer, Bengals| Avg. Team Attempts: 534| 2007 Attempts: 575
Projected Attempts: 550


The Bengals say they want to run more this season, but I don't think they have the talent to balance their offense. Their talent is all in the passing game. Palmer will still be a high volume quarterback, which could make him the best value of the top-six options.

3. Tom Brady, Patriots| Avg. Team Attempts: 538| 2007 Attempts: 578
Projected Attempts: 545


While Brady's attempts are likely to go down if Laurence Maroney stays healthy, New England will always be a pass-first team. Especially in the red zone. The bigger question with Brady is whether he can keep up his bananas 8.3 yards-per-attempt from last season.

Editor's Note: To see our complete quarterback rankings, projections, and cheat sheets, check out the Rotoworld Online Draft Guide

4. Tony Romo, Cowboys| Avg. Team Attempts: 520| 2007 Attempts: 520
Projected Attempts: 535


There is natural concern that Tony Romo will take a step back after a ridiculously good first season as a starter. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett's pass-happy ways ease those concerns. If Dallas trails a little more often, they might get as pass-happy as the Saints.

5. Eli Manning, Giants| Avg. Team Attempts: 536| 2007 Attempts: 529
Projected Attempts: 534


Eli can be inconsistent from game-to-game, but he doesn't get hurt and his attempt totals are as consistent as anyone. That helps make him a safe, if unexciting, top-15 quarterback each year.

6. Peyton Manning, Colts| Avg. Team Attempts: 540| 2007 Attempts: 515
Projected Attempts: 525


Unlike Eli, Peyton's attempt totals have fluctuated wildly in recent years, and that makes huge difference in his fantasy value. In 2005, he threw 453 passes. In 2006, he threw 104 more and scored 69 more fantasy points. Despite his recent surgery, Manning will be ready for Week 1.

Manning should safely get over 500 attempts assuming the Colts don't dominate the competition with huge leads all year. It also helps when they don't clinch their playoff berth too early.

7. Marc Bulger, Rams| Avg. Team Attempts: 583| Avg. Bulger Attempts: 450
2007 Attempts: 378| Projected Attempts: 505


Breaking down Bulger's numbers further, he averages 563 attempts when he plays more than 14 games. That's only happened twice in five years. Scott Linehan loves to chuck it, especially in the red zone, another reason why Bulger is a true boom-or-bust option.

Safe Options

8. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks| Avg. Team Attempts: 526| Avg. Hass attempts: 508 2007 Attempts: 562| Projected Attempts: 495

Hasselbeck is coming off his highest attempt total in four years by 88 attempts, mostly because Shaun Alexander attacked defenses with the enthusiasm of a Mike Holmgren diet. With a shaky receiver group and a strong running game, Hasselbeck's totals could fall off a cliff. That's one reason he's overvalued in most drafts.

9. Jay Cutler, Broncos| Avg. Team Attempts: 490| 2007 Attempts: 490
Projected Attempts: 495


Mike Shanahan keeps his offense balanced when possible, and can lean strongly towards the run when it's clicking. Cutler's YPA helps him greatly, but his attempt total should only be average. His durability and job security, however, are excellent.

10. Aaron Rodgers, Packers| Avg. Team Attempts: 604| 2007 Attempts: 28
Projected Attempts: 490


Okay, so we haven't worked Brett Favre into the projections yet. The man is retired, and the most likely outcomes are that he's traded or stays retired. Neither affects Rodgers. When and if Favre un-retires, this number will change.

Mike McCarthy is near the top of the list of pass-happy coaches. That bodes extremely well for Rodgers, as does his deep receiver group. His projected attempts are relatively low mostly because of his injury history and status as a first-time starter. McCarthy may balance the offense to start the year.
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Gregg Rosenthal is the Managing Editor of Rotoworld.com and has directed its football content since 2003. He co-hosts the NBC Fantasy Fix and covers the NFL for NBCSports.com and Profootballtalk.com. Catch him on Twitter.
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