I participated in an 18-round draft with 13 others in the industry last week. The league awards 4 points for passing touchdowns and 6 for receiving and rushing scores. No points are awarded for receptions.
Owners start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 DEF/ST. We do not use a flex. Here are the first-half results with some commentary. The rest of this mock will be available in our must-have 2008 Fantasy Football Draft Guide.
Round One
1.01. Fanball (Ryan Houston): LaDainian Tomlinson
1.02. FF Pro Forecast (Bob Harris): Adrian Peterson
1.03. Sports Grumblings (John Georgopoulos): Brian Westbrook
1.04. Rotoworld (Evan Silva): Steven Jackson
1.05. FantasyFootball.com (David Grey/Craig Davis): Marion Barber
1.06. RotoTimes (Rick Hawes): Joseph Addai
1.07. Fantasy Tailgate (Dan Labert): Frank Gore
1.08. Inside the Stats (Ken Maxwell/Seth Davis): Randy Moss
1.09. Monster Draft (Todd Beckstead): Clinton Portis
1.10. FFMastermind (Mike Nazarek): Larry Johnson
1.11. Fantasy Guru (Thomas Simons): Marshawn Lynch
1.12. IPL Sports (John Willette): Ryan Grant
1.13. Athlon/Grogan's (Dan & Kelly Grogan): Terrell Owens
1.14. The Huddle (Phil Gentles): Reggie Wayne
Best Value: Steven Jackson. I was ecstatic when Jackson fell to me at four. His holdout isn't a concern yet and he'll be highly motivated when he does return. The Rams' offense will be balanced, and I'm betting much more productive under new coordinator Al Saunders with Orlando Pace back healthy. Had I been picking first overall, I would've strongly considered taking Jackson in this format.
Shadiest Pick: Larry Johnson. L.J. is a poor bet to rebound because of his offensive line, quarterback, and head-coaching situations. The Chiefs won't threaten secondaries with their passing game and defenses will load up to stop the run. Even if L.J. pulls a Jamal Lewis and gets the step(s) he lost back, he won't have room to operate. He's more of a late second-round pick.
Trends, Etc: Barber went higher here than our Draft Guide recommends. I don't have a problem with it, especially if your league is rather touchdown-heavy like this one. MBIII is easy to fall in love with in Dallas' offense and Felix Jones doesn't scare me. Jones will return kicks and get some change-of-pace work like Leon Washington in New York. That won't be a true timeshare. Aside from L.J., I didn't dislike any picks in this round.
Round Two
2.01. Reggie Bush
2.02. Jamal Lewis
2.03. Willis McGahee
2.04. Maurice Jones-Drew
2.05. Braylon Edwards
2.06. Tom Brady
2.07. Willie Parker
2.08. Peyton Manning
2.09. Marques Colston
2.10. Laurence Maroney
2.11. Rotoworld: Andre Johnson
2.12. Larry Fitzgerald
2.13. Brandon Marshall
2.14. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Best Value: Tom Brady. You won't see Brady fall out of the first round in many drafts. This league doesn't weigh passing TDs very heavily, but he's still an incredibly strong value at 20th overall. Even if New England's offense comes back to earth, Brady is a good bet for 36-40 touchdown passes and routine three-score weeks.
Shadiest Pick: Willie Parker. Though he'll likely remain a starter, Parker will become a clear committee back with Mewelde Moore and Rashard Mendenhall set to steal all passing-game and goal-line work. The Steelers didn't draft Mendenhall to sit, and Moore is a far more natural pass receiver than Fast Willie. I wouldn't touch FWP before the sixth round, even in a 14-team league.
Trends, Etc: The Marshall pick was made before NFL Network's report that he could be suspended up to eight games. We expect a slight falloff, but Lewis is still being drafted consistently as a borderline RB1. It's high for my taste, as was the Bush pick in a non-PPR setting. All the receivers drafted in this round were rock-solid values.
Round Three
3.01. Steve Smith (CAR)
3.02. Earnest Graham
3.03. Brandon Jacobs
3.04. Rotoworld: Chad Johnson
3.05. Torry Holt
3.06. Tony Romo
3.07. Plaxico Burress
3.08. Ronnie Brown
3.09. Edgerrin James
3.10. Michael Turner
3.11. Anquan Boldin
3.12. Santonio Holmes
3.13. Drew Brees
3.14. Wes Welker
Best Value: Drew Brees. Brees may not approach his insane attempts total from 2007, but he'll still throw as often as any quarterback in the league and do more with those tosses now that Jeremy Shockey is in New Orleans. Shockey is an all-around force and will make everyone around him better.
Shadiest Pick: Edgerrin James. This was a shocker, especially with Thomas Jones, Jonathan Stewart, Darren McFadden, and Matt Forte available. James, who turns 30 on August 1, can only get worse than he was last year and will likely see his carries cut. He shouldn't be in the third-round conversation.
Trends, Etc: I don't like Welker much in this non-PPR format. 1,000 yards are doable again, but Welker won't repeat his eight scores and 100 catches doesn't make a difference here. I'm interested to see how many touches Turner will end up with because Atlanta is going to be playing from behind all season and he has 11 career catches. I think Jerious Norwood is a nice sleeper this year as Atlanta's presumptive passing-down specialist.
Round Four
4.01. Darren McFadden
4.02. Jason Witten
4.03. Jonathan Stewart
4.04. Roy Williams (DET)
4.05. Thomas Jones
4.06. Antonio Gates
4.07. Greg Jennings
4.08. Rudi Johnson
4.09. LenDale White
4.10. Calvin Johnson
4.11. Rotoworld: Matt Forte
4.12. Marvin Harrison
4.13. Selvin Young
4.14. Julius Jones
Best Value: Thomas Jones. Jones was the last "safe" RB2 off the board in terms of track record and job security. I realize he's not a game breaker, but no offensive line improved more on paper than the Jets' this offseason, and there will be much more emphasis on the running game in New York. The last time Jones played behind a decent offensive line, he ran for 1,210 yards and 6 scores. And that was in a "committee" with Cedric Benson.
Shadiest Pick: Rudi Johnson. I didn't know anyone still believed in Rudi, but apparently there are some hangers-on. We have Johnson as the RB37; here he was drafted as the RB26. There are several clear-cut backups I'd gamble on before him.
Trends, Etc: I really wanted Carson Palmer here, but the rest of the average to above average RB2s were going quick and I had to take Forte. This was before Kevin Jones' signing, not that I consider Jones a real threat. Julius Jones and Maurice Morris will share time this season, with neither particularly likely to top 200 carries. I bet Seattle ends up going pass-heavy again. Also notice no quarterbacks in this round.
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Evan Silva is a senior football editor for Rotoworld.com. He can be found on Twitter . |
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