Nine Fantasy Draft Trends

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Gregg Rosenthal
Draft Analysis
August 5, 2008
Nine Fantasy Draft Trends
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Each draft season has defining features. Here are nine trends from this year's early drafts, using Average Draft Position (ADP) information.

Note: This column is an updated version of one in our online draft guide. If this is the type of content you enjoy, check out all our rankings, projections, tiers, cheat sheets, and columns.

1. The Blotter Boys

Three wideouts who have bathed in hot water this offseason are now flashpoints for 2008 drafts: Steve Smith, Brandon Marshall, and Marvin Harrison. Smith was drafted as an early-third round pick before his recent two game suspension. It's too early to know how that news plus trade rumors will change his ADP, but it doesn't change Rotoworld's ranking much. Smith fell out of the top tier of wideouts, but he's still ranked as a third-round value ahead of players like Torry Holt and Anquan Boldin. Two fantasy starts from a reserve wideout + Steve Smith still equals elite production. Don't let him slip too far.

Brandon Marshall escaped a worst-case scenario when the NFL Network announced he will be suspended only two games if he undergoes counseling. Recent estimates were as high as 4-8 games. Marshall has also been slipping in drafts, but you aren't going to find a more talented player after the first three rounds.

Marvin Harrison's legal troubles plus his knee injuries caused his stock to plummet in mid-summer drafts, but most of those concerns are fading away. He has practiced well at training camp and we haven't heard a peep about his gun troubles in months. While he's 36, Harrison scored at least ten times for eight straight seasons before last year. I'd bet a fourth or fifth round pick he can score eight this year.

Even Chad Johnson continues to fall deep into the third round because of all the hot air he blew this summer. Many fantasy owners are afraid to gamble on players with "character" problems, but these guys won't change your locker room. We'll take talent and a little anxiety at the right price any day.

2. The Brady Effect

Owners must decide how high they are willing to take a quarterback, specifically the one that threw 50 touchdown passes last season. Early numbers suggest most owners are comfortable grabbing Brady after the top five running backs. Rotoworld has Brady slightly lower because of his previous career stats (season high was 28 touchdowns), and the depth at quarterback.

Your league scoring system makes a huge difference with Brady. He makes a lot more sense in the top five if you get six points per passing touchdown.

The addendum to the Brady Effect is the Moss Effect. Like Brady, Moss was taken in the fourth round a year ago. Now he will be taken earlier than any receiver in years. Owners must decide if he's worth more than a first-round running back. We have Moss ranked higher than Brady.

3. The Second Round Dilemma

2007 was a huge year in the NFL for passing games and it is reflected early in drafts. Peyton Manning and Tony Romo join Tom Brady as quarterbacks taken in the top two rounds. Manning is usually by himself.

Ten wide receivers are getting taken in the top-30 picks. Only eight were last season. Owners must decide in the second and third round whether to grab surer bets at quarterback and wide receiver or pick up a risky running back before they run out.

Rotoworld likes taking a receiver early far more than a quarterback. We give nine receivers a second round grade, with only Willis McGahee breaking up our "run" of tightly bunched WR1s in the second round. Maurice Jones-Drew and Larry Johnson sneak into the end of our second round. Every draft is different, but it's a good year to go RB-WR-WR at the top of drafts depending on who falls to you. We see quarterbacks like Tony Romo, Drew Brees, and Carson Palmer as picks after the first three rounds.

Note: Compete with the best for a $100,000 prize at the NBC Sports National Football Championship. And chat on their message boards with me Tuesday at 2PM.

4. Mid-Round Starting Running Backs

The rise of the passing game and the proliferation of running back committees are pushing starting running backs further down the draft board. Thomas Jones and LenDale White aren't sexy picks, but they are decent bets to hit 300 touches. They aren't going in the top-50 picks.

Matt Forte, Selvin Young, Jonathan Stewart, Julius Jones, Rudi Johnson, and Justin Fargas are likely starting running backs that are falling. There will be quality RB2s and RB3s available in the middle rounds who get touches. That isn't usually the case. We'd take them over likely committee partners such as Willie Parker in the top-30 picks. This is a great year to get two receivers early.
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Gregg Rosenthal is the Managing Editor of Rotoworld.com and has directed its football content since 2003. He co-hosts the NBC Fantasy Fix and covers the NFL for NBCSports.com and Profootballtalk.com. Catch him on Twitter.
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