Running back committees, like Manning brothers, are not all created equal. In this era of vanishing 300-carry backs, it's more important than ever to know each backfield's unique makeup. This column, and its AFC cousin to follow, will project the workload for every team. In fantasy football, it's usually more important to know how often a player will get the ball rather than how explosive he is with it in his hands.
For each team below, I included the average number of running back attempts per season with the team's current head coach. I project whether that number will go up or down, and then split up the workload.
Arizona Cardinals
Coach: Ken Whisenhunt| Average Rushes/Year: 365
Projected 2008 Carries: 383
Whiz has the reputation for smashmouth football from his days in Pittsburgh, but his Kurt Warner-led 2007 squad was pass wacky. The offense should balance out somewhat this season, but the team's talent still resides in the passing game. Improvement on defense would help.
Edgerrin James: 295
Tim Hightower: 75
J.J. Arrington: 18
We're all rooting for Hightower, if only because the Edgerrin James era is stale and there figures to be plentiful Police Academy and "Timmy!" jokes involved. James had the highest percentage of carries for any starter last year, with his backups only getting 41 carries (11%). Early indications are that Hightower will get a beefed-up role, but a closer split than this is wishful thinking.
See Hightower's spanking new projection and rank in our online draft guide.
Atlanta Falcons
Coach: Mike Smith| Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2008 Carries: 390
Judging by offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey's history and Atlanta's personnel, the Falcons will lean heavily on the run. But there can only be so many carries if the team always plays from behind and goes three-and-out often.
Michael Turner: 275
Jerious Norwood: 95
Thomas Brown: 10
The Falcons say they will work Norwood into the mix more often. We'll believe it when we see it. Mularkey loves power running backs and the Falcons gave Turner huge money. Norwood is a better value at his average draft slot, but the Falcons offense will hold both players back.
Carolina Panthers
Coach: John Fox| Average Rushes/Year: 415
Projected 2008 Carries: 405
We heard it 227 times this off-season: John Fox wants to get back to power football. The Panthers never really got away from it though – they just haven't been effective for years. (They also got away from reasonable quarterback play last year, but David Carr has left the building). The Panthers still have two high draft picks in the backfield, so not much
changed.
Jonathan Stewart: 245
DeAngelo Williams: 155
LaBrandon Toefield: 5
This is undeniably one of the toughest backfields to project, especially with Stewart's toe injury lingering. While Williams was given a bigger share in our latest daily draft guide update, I'm sticking with the rookie. The Panthers want a bruiser, not a shifty back. That's why they took him so high in the draft. That's why Williams couldn't push Foster off the field. Williams may start the season as the starter, but Stewart should finish it off.
Chicago Bears
Coach: Love Smith| Average Rushes/Year: 421
Projected 2008 Carries: 415
The Thomas Jones-Cedric Benson years twice reached 470 carries a season, so there is potential here for huge totals. But the team didn't reach 400 last season because the offense was so poor. And it looks worse this season.
Matt Forte: 240
Kevin Jones: 90
Adrian Peterson: 55
Garrett Wolfe: 20
Jones may not be 100% until well into the season, but he's off the camp/PUP list. Once that happens, he could play every third series. Lovie Smith doesn't like to burden one back with all the work, and they are asking a lot from Forte. He will need to be a higher volume runner than I project to fully overcome his weak teammates. Forte remains a better RB3 than second running back pick.
Dallas Cowboys
Coach: Wade Phillips| Average Rushes/Year: 387
Projected 2008 Carries: 380
The Cowboys had low rushing attempts last season considering how dominant their offense was. If they played from behind more often, this team could go very pass-heavy.
Marion Barber: 240
Felix Jones: 120
Tashard Choice: 20
Yes, the Cowboys see MBIII as a lead back. But his wild style needs to be monitored or he could burn out. Barber's total looks low, but his career high is 207. Felix Jones is a shiny new toy that Jason Garrett will use as a receiver often. Choice could be a key factor if Barber ever gets hurt, because Jones isn't ready for 20 carries a game.
Detroit Lions
Coach: Rod Marinelli| Average Rushes/Year: 274
Projected 2008 Carries: 355
Ding, dong, Martz is gone! I'm not sure why the Lions receivers seem so happy about this, but the running backs happiness is understandable. They will be reintroduced to the joys of touching the football.
Kevin Smith: 160
Tatum Bell: 100
Brian Calhoun: 70
Artose Pinner: 25
My total lack of faith that any Detroit back will be successful or healthy for long explains the jumbled picture. Smith is an injury waiting to happen. Bell apologists pine for the glory days he never had. Detroit's offensive line also has a long way to prove they can run block.
Green Bay Packers
Coach: Mike McCarthy| Average Rushes/Year: 369
Projected 2008 Carries: 390
The Packers finally approached some semblance of balance late last season after Ryan Grant's emergence. With Brett Favre gone, look for that trend to continue.
Ryan Grant: 290
Brandon Jackson: 65
DeShawn Wynn: 25
Vernand Morency: 10
Perhaps Jackson's strong off-season deserves more of a boost, but the Packers weren't shy about working Grant hard last season. He averaged just fewer than twenty carries a game once he broke out in Week 6. Jackson is more likely to take passing down work. Grant's heavy workload in a watered-down season for backs helps make him our last first-round pick.
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Gregg Rosenthal is the Managing Editor of Rotoworld.com and has directed its football content since 2003. He co-hosts the NBC Fantasy Fix and covers the NFL for NBCSports.com and Profootballtalk.com. Catch him on Twitter. |
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