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Gregg Rosenthal
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July 23, 2008
Shock Factor
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Jeremy Shockey was once known for his football production, not his mouth. The year was 2002, and Shockey torched the NFL for 74 catches and 894 yards, making first-team All Pro. Only one rookie tight end in league history caught more passes. Shockey's play-caller that year: Giants offensive coordinator Sean Payton.

Shockey hasn't matched those numbers since, but reuniting with Payton in New Orleans could revive his vaguely disappointing career. It's not that Shockey has been poor the last five seasons. It's just that his rookie year indicated he could reach greater heights than the Hall of Very Good.

New Orleans passes more than anyone in the league, and they thrive on quick hits and running after the catch. That plays to Shockey's strengths. He may not have great hands, but he knows how to take a short pass a long way. He'll have plenty of chances to run through undersized safeties and past lumbering linebackers.

Shockey's fantasy ceiling rises because he'll be the number two receiver on a pass-heavy offense. He'll deflect attention from Marques Colston, and give Drew Brees a better target than David Patten, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, or whomever Payton sends out at receiver in a given week.

Payton desperately wanted a tight end to rely on. He managed to squeeze 75 receptions out of Billy Miller and Eric Johnson last season. The Saints offense makes receivers look better than they really are. Expect that happen to with Shockey this season.

So how high does Shockey go?

Shockey moved in our draft guide projections from eleventh to seventh at tight end, ahead of Owen Daniels, Vernon Davis, Heath Miller, and Tony Scheffler. That roughly puts him at a seventh-round value on our draft guide top 200, just behind Todd Heap. New Orleans' high volume attack makes Shockey more valuable in points-per-reception leagues because he'll rely more on catches than touchdowns. Shockey could inch even higher in the rankings if he can prove in training camp that he's truly healthy. Just don't assume yet that Shockey is healthy.

He's coming off a broken leg that may have affected his ankle. He hasn't practiced this offseason, although his animosity towards the Giants could partly explain why. Even if Shockey is healthy, his history indicates that he won't stay that way for long. He's only missed five games in the last four seasons, but he's rarely 100% and often leaves games early. It affects his play. Shockey's injury history is the only thing holding him back. He's out of other excuses.

Side effects

Presumptive Shockey replacement Kevin Boss could evolve into a trendy sleeper pick, but Rotoworld isn't buying it. Before you show up to the draft dreaming about Boss running away from Rodney Harrison in the Super Bowl, remember this: The Newark Star Ledger doesn't even think it's a slam dunk that he'll start. Teammates Michael Matthews and Darcy Johnson have impressed Giants brass. Boss is a fine receiver and will improve, but his poor blocking skills will keep him off the field too much. We upgraded Boss' numbers, but he still doesn't crack our top-20 tight ends. It's a deep year at the position.

Shockey's departure could help second year wideout Steve Smith more than Boss. He's a natural in the slot, and the team will go to three receivers more often now. Smith's production was solid once Shockey got hurt last year. Smith is still only a deep league flier, but he's going to be a good player for a long time. If Amani Toomer ever gets hurt, he'll be worth picking up.



 

Gregg Rosenthal is the Managing Editor of Rotoworld.com and has directed its football content since 2003. He co-hosts the NBC Fantasy Fix and covers the NFL for NBCSports.com and Profootballtalk.com. Gregg was named the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year in 2007, but did not repeat in '08. He's out for vengeance now on Twitter.
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