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Gregg Rosenthal
Football Daily Dose
August 29, 2007
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The following is our last Mock Draft of the season for the owners smart enough to draft as late as possible. Since I haven't tackled Average Draft Position since a pair of columns written before training camp, I will include some ADP thoughts after each round. It's also ADP day over at Pancake Blocks.

This is a points-per-reception league. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF no flex. So it's about as heavily tilted towards wideout as you can get. Four points per passing touchdown.

Round One

1.01. Footballguys – LaDainian Tomlinson
1.02. FFToday – Steven Jackson
1.03. FSP – Frank Gore
1.04. KFFL – Larry Johnson
1.05. FootballInjuries – Joseph Addai
1.06. The Huddle – Brian Westbrook
1.07. Rotoworld – Willie Parker
1.08. FantasyGuru– Reggie Bush
1.09. Rotowire – Maurice Jones-Drew
1.10. FFMastermind – Shaun Alexander
1.11. DraftSharks – Travis Henry
1.12. Fantasy Insights – Willis McGahee

Trends: In points-per-reception (PPR) leagues, we project a monster drop-off in running back value after eight backs. The same eight went first in this draft. Mo-Jo looks a little early, but he gets a big boost in this format. Shaun Alexander gets a downgrade because of his poor receiving skills and that's reflected. In a heavy wide receiver league like this, I'd consider wideouts at the end of the first round, but the owners took them on the way back. No difference really.

ADP Analysis: Drew is being taken on average as the RB14, usually mid-way through the second round. He's not your average backup, but that's awfully early for someone splitting time ... Alexander's ADP has steadily risen all offseason to RB5 despite Rotoworld's low ranking … Willie Parker (RB8) usually goes after Westbrook (RB7), which I'm surprised about.

Round Two

2.01. Marvin Harrison
2.02. Chad Johnson
2.03. Laurence Maroney
2.04. Rudi Johnson
2.05. Steve Smith
2.06. Rotoworld – Reggie Wayne
2.07. Ronnie Brown
2.08. Cedric Benson
2.09. Edgerrin James
2.10. Torry Holt
2.11. Peyton Manning
2.12. Terrell Owens

Trends: Six wideouts, Rotoworld's entire first tier as of a week ago, go in round two. I was surprised wideouts didn't go a little faster in this format. We've dropped Torry Holt a few spots in the meantime, and it would have been interesting to see where Holt went after the latest round of news surrounding his knee. I still wouldn't let him get out of round three.

I considered Brandon Jacobs in round two, and would have done it in a non-PPR league. The lack of a flex player, though, makes Reggie Wayne a better scorer. Ronnie Brown is beginning to slip a bit because of the relative unease in Miami.

ADP Analysis: Peyton Manning, and quarterbacks in general, go later in industry league drafts than normal. I learned that with two work leagues in the last week. Manning is averaging being taken with the eleventh or twelfth pick ... Johnson (RB10) and Maroney (RB11) will go in the first round in most formats ... Wayne (WR6) is usually the last of the first tier receivers to be taken, but he still is off the board by the top of round three. Chad Johnson and Steve Smith, on average, go three picks ahead of the rest of the wideouts. I'm amazed Edgerrin James (RB16) is still a second-round pick. This league stuck closely to ADP averages early.

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Round Three

3.01. Roy Williams
3.02. Brandon Jacobs
3.03. Andre Johnson
3.04. Clinton Portis
3.05. Antonio Gates
3.06. Larry Fitzgerald
3.07. Rotoworld – Thomas Jones
3.08. Javon Walker
3.09. Lee Evans
3.10. Carnell Williams
3.11. Deuce McAllister
3.12. Marion Barber

Trends: In a PPR league, Thomas Jones make a fine RB2 pick. I'd much rather have him than players in job shares like McAllister and Barber. No quarterbacks are taken in the third round, a rarity … Lee Evans received no downgrade for the scoring format.

ADP Analysis: Brandon Jacobs' ADP has steadily climbed from RB28 early in the summer to RB20 now. We've had him no worse than RB16 all along, but still never wind up getting a chance to draft him … Gates (TE1) is averaging being taken in the late third-round. I'd look hard at him in the fourth round if available ... Marion Barber's ADP (RB24, late fourth-round) seems to be slipping as it becomes clear he won't start for the Cowboys early in the year … It's rare to see Andre Johnson (WR12) and Roy Williams (WR 10) both go ahead of Larry FitzgeraldCarnell Williams (RB22, early-fourth round) remains a low cost RB2 on average.

Round Four

4.01. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
4.02. Marshawn Lynch
4.03. Donald Driver
4.04. Marques Colston
4.05. Adrian Peterson
4.06. Rotoworld – Anquan Boldin
4.07. Laveranues Coles
4.08. Hines Ward
4.09. Randy Moss
4.10. LaMont Jordan
4.11. Plaxico Burress
4.12. Ahman Green

Trends: Some PPR plus players like Housh, Colston, Boldin, and Coles come at solid value in the fourth round. With nearly every team having their starting running back slots filled, only the top two rookie runners, Lamont Jordan, and Ahman Green are taken at the position. Peyton Manning is still the only quarterback off the board.

ADP Analysis: Don't expect Housh (WR10) and Boldin (WR9) to last this long in this format ... Randy Moss (WR14, mid-fourth round) has settled into this draft slot for better or worse. I still think there's a better chance he'll be a bust than a second-round value, but he should score if healthy. … This was early for LaMont Jordan (RB35, seventh-round) according to his ADP, although we've had him in our Top 60 players since March, so there are probably a lot of Rotoworld users rolling with him as a RB3. Good luck to all of us.

*** Join the thousands of owners who have signed up for the NFL Daily Dose to be delivered to your inbox every morning. It's on the right side of this column.

Round Five

5.01. Braylon Edwards
5.02. Deion Branch
5.03. Jerious Norwood
5.04. Carson Palmer
5.05. Reggie Brown
5.06. Drew Brees
5.07. Rotoworld – Marc Bulger
5.08. Tom Brady
5.09. Vince Young
5.10. Donovan McNabb
5.11. DeShaun Foster
5.12. Jerricho Cotchery

Trends: Industry drafts tend to wait on quarterbacks, and Carson Palmer could prove to be the steal of the draft in the fifth-round. Six of seven picks were quarterbacks in the middle of the round, with Vince Young the most surprising pick. I was happy to take our third-ranked quarterback this late because I was confident in the running back and wideout depth available that I'd need to fill out my roster. This was the first time all draft season I saw Foster go in front of DeAngelo Williams.

ADP Analysis: Cotchery (WR32) won't normally be taken this high, but he has extra value in this format. He was easily the highest wideout remaining on our board, as well as Footballguys, who drafted him. This draft was done before the recent discouraging news on Jerious Norwood (RB29, sixth round). His ADP is falling, although he's still a fine third running back pick. … This group of quarterbacks will usually be taken in the third round (Palmer) or the fourth (everyone else but Young). Young looks like a good value with an ADP in the eighth round if you can get him that late.

Round Six

6.01. Jamal Lewis
6.02. Calvin Johnson
6.03. Joey Galloway
6.04. Santana Moss
6.05. Julius Jones
6.06. Rotoworld – DeAngelo Williams
6.07. Fred Taylor
6.08. Jon Kitna
6.09. Darrell Jackson
6.10. Tony Romo
6.11. Brandon Jackson
6.12. Tatum Bell


Trends: This is where the depth at running back starts showing up. This is a WR-heavy league, but Jones, Williams, Fred Taylor, and Brandon Jackson have great potential for picks this late. I was excited to take Williams as a RB3 in this format because of his receiving ability.

ADP Analysis: Romo (QB7) and Kitna (QB8) went right at their ADPs overall. They are seen as the next-best options to the elite six quarterbacks we've written about in the last few weeks … Darrell Jackson (WR24) has been knocked down draft boards because of his recent injuries, but most owners seem to believe San Francisco's offense won't hurt him … Tatum Bell (RB31) is rising by the week, and went around his average slot here. Rotoworld believes it's too high. Brandon Jackson (RB32) also continues to rise up draft boards … Santana Moss (WR22) gets a downgrade in this format, but he's one of our favorite mid-round picks this year coming off a down season.

*** To see Brandon Jackson's latest move on our cheat sheets, check out the Rotoworld draft guide.

Round Seven

7.01. Todd Heap
7.02. Mark Clayton
7.03. Vernon Davis
7.04. Ladell Betts
7.05. Bernard Berrian
7.06. Santonio Holmes
7.07. Rotoworld – D.J. Hackett
7.08. Kevin Curtis
7.09. Vincent Jackson
7.10. Kellen Winslow
7.11. Chris Chambers
7.12. Bears Defense


Trends: Tight end run starts! Once again, the quarterback and tight end runs go a little later in industry drafts than elsewhere. One thing I've noticed this season is that I like the WR3s almost as much as the late WR2s. Clayton, Holmes, Hackett, and Jackson are all emerging players who I believe have little downside … Betts is the only running back taken this round. He definitely occupies the space in drafts between starters and backups because he's the best "backup" available.

ADP Analysis: Of the wideouts I mentioned above, Hackett (WR35) and Curtis (WR36) have the lowest ADPS – in the ninth round overall. Jackson (WR27) and Chambers (WR25) will go earlier in most drafts … The tight end run usually starts in sixth-round with Tony Gonzalez, and ends in the eighth round with Alge Crumpler … The Bears defense (DEF1) goes in the seventh-round on average, which is too early for us.

Round Eight

8.01. Tony Gonzalez
8.02. Patriots Defense
8.03. Ravens Defense
8.04. Chris Cooley
8.05. Jeremy Shockey
8.06. Rotoworld – LenDale White
8.07. Devery Henderson
8.08. Chris Brown
8.09. Alge Crumpler
8.10. Warrick Dunn
8.11. Chester Taylor
8.12. Philip Rivers

Trends: Still quality starting tight ends and solid running back values available in round eight. White was a luxury pick in this format, and will only be worth it if I deal one of my running backs. Only one wide receiver was taken, an oddity in the middle rounds, but most of the quality third wideouts were off the board.

ADP Analysis: Owners don't know what to do with LenDale White (RB40) and Chris Brown (RB 45), usually passing on both in the first nine rounds. Chris Henry (RB47) isn't getting taken much later, which is a big mistake. White has a higher ceiling than any other back taken this late … Dunn (RB39) went around his ADP, but I'm just not interested.

***

You can go to the league website to see the rest of the draft picks. Below are a handful of the most interesting remaining picks.

9.01. Kevin Jones: This is about right. Jones looks likely to start the year on the PUP list (we'll find either way Thursday), but he's a nice gamble once your starting lineup is set.

9.04. Matt Hasselbeck: He's going to be the last best starting fantasy quarterback available in a lot of leagues. Good value.

9.07. Jason Witten: Last best tight end.

10.04. Ronald Curry: Amazingly, it wasn't me that took him.

10.12. Brandon Jones: Probably not starting in Tennessee.

11.02. Terry Glenn: Falling by the day. This late, he's worth it.

11.08. Jacoby Jones: I love the kid, but it's amazing what a few preseason games can do.

11.09 Mike Bell: He's back at practice and turning into a great value.

12.04. Chris Henry, TEN: May be inactive on game days.

12.10. Dominic Rhodes: Should be part of committee when suspension is over.

13.01. Ben Watson: More proof that it's easy to find tight ends.

13.03. Matt Jones: Best Jones available.

15.06. James Jones: Greg Jennings went at 10.08. I'd certainly rather have James than Jacoby.

15.11. Sammy Morris: Not bad for a backup running back who should see some goal-line carries on a high scoring team.

16.08. Tab Perry: It's fine for a flier pick, but Tab Perry has shownnothing this month. Don't assume he'll have a big role in the offense or that he's even the third receiver. Maybe it's not fine.

17.10. Daunte Culpepper: Worth a shot this late.

17.11. Ernest Wilford: Currently the number one receiver in Jacksonville.

* All the ADP information was created by averaging the publicly available ADP feeds at MockDraftCentral.com, Myfantasyleague.com, and AntSports.com.



 

Gregg Rosenthal is the Managing Editor of Rotoworld.com and has directed its football content since 2003. He co-hosts the NBC Fantasy Fix and covers the NFL for NBCSports.com and Profootballtalk.com. Gregg was named the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year in 2007, but did not repeat in '08. He's out for vengeance now on Twitter.
Contact Gregg Rosenthal
 
 
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