AFC Projected Carries, Part I

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Gregg Rosenthal
Football Daily Dose
August 13, 2008
AFC Projected Carries, Part I
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Some pet peeves:

1. Local Sports announcers who don't know anything about sports.

2. The practice of calling every recently completed sporting event or athlete the best or worst of all time. Example: "Michael Phelps is the greatest athlete of all time in failing to spark a compelling storyline from dogged reporters."

3. People that walk into a subway car before allowing you the chance to walk out of the subway. These people deserve a special circle in hell. Or at least a stray elbow or shoulder.

4. Forced introductions to columns.

This was originally going to be a list of storylines about the 2008 season that drive me crazy. While that column may come eventually, I can't muster the appropriate Bayless-level of bile on August 13. I'm too thankful for the season being right around the corner. The training camp portion of the preseason is mostly ending this week, people! Let's celebrate with more projected carries, now out of the AFC backfield. If you missed it, I broke down the NFC Tuesday. I'll finish the final eight teams on Thursday, and then wrap up running back week with some Tiers of Heaven on Friday.

Baltimore Ravens
Coach: John Harbaugh| Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2008 Carries: 380


Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will essentially run the offense. He leans towards the run and has helped LaDainian Tomlinson and Ronnie Brown reach new heights this decade. Look for the running backs to be involved in the passing game.

Willis McGahee: 280
Ray Rice: 100

These numbers grew closer this week following Willis McGahee's knee surgery. While it was a minor procedure, McGahee's lack of conditioning to start camp is a concern. Can he hold up again? Rice has earned a big role with a great camp, but Baltimore's shaky offensive line is trouble for both players.

See how far McGahee fell in our online draft guide.

Buffalo Bills
Coach: Dick Jauron| Average Rushes/Year: 385
Projected 2008 Carries: 410


According to Pro Football Prospectus, the Bills led the league in % of runs when they were trailing in the second half. Dick Jauron will go run-heavy in any situation, and modest improvement in the passing game will help extend drives and rack up carries.

Marshawn Lynch: 310
Fred Jackson: 90
Dwayne Wright: 10

The argument for Marshawn Lynch as a top-seven pick in a nutshell. He is almost as talented as any back in the league, he's young, and he's a good bet to finish in the top-five in carries. The Bills say they will use him more in the passing game. Fred Jackson is the clear backup and a fine handcuff.

Cincinnati Bengals
Coach: Marvin Lewis| Average Rushes/Year: 398
Projected 2008 Carries: 380


Marvin Lewis wants to run. He has the offensive line and the passing game to make it work, but the backfield remains a mystery. This team should lean pass because that's where the best talent is.

Rudi Johnson: 160
Kenny Watson: 105
Chris Perry: 85
DeDe Dorsey: 30

This may be giving too much credit to Rudi, who has barely taken a hit all camp and doesn't seem likely to stay healthy for long. Perry has more upside than Watson, but can he last 16 weeks? Even if Watson starts the year third on the depth chart, he figures to split work with whoever survives between Perry and Rudi.

Cleveland Browns
Coach: Romeo Crennel| Average Rushes/Year: 355
Projected 2008 Carries: 400


The average annual rushes during the Crennel era are low, but he hit 396 carries last season from running backs with a good offense. This is a balanced team.

Jamal Lewis: 280
Jason Wright: 80
Jerome Harrison: 30
Lawrence Vickers: 10

Very little changed in Cleveland, so their 2007 totals didn't change much. Wright enjoyed a solid season as Lewis' backup, and I gave him a few extra carries this year due to the miles on Lewis' leg. Continue story ...

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Gregg Rosenthal is the Managing Editor of Rotoworld.com and has directed its football content since 2003. He co-hosts the NBC Fantasy Fix and covers the NFL for NBCSports.com and Profootballtalk.com. Gregg was named the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year in 2007, but did not repeat in '08. He's out for vengeance now on Twitter.
Contact Gregg Rosenthal
 
 
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