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Gregg Rosenthal
Football Daily Dose
August 28, 2009
Tiers of Heaven is back!
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Fantasy owners are always asking us at Rotoworld for that one tip, the one sentence that will solve their fantasy football league. That sentence doesn't exist. The best advice we have is to know more than the owner next to you, have a system of evaluating players, and to be flexible within that system. Then have fun and get a little lucky.

Our tiering system is a good place to start.

Every season, every draft, every choice is different. The owner that is flexible enough to look for value at each pick will win over the long run. We believe creating tiers at each position to maximize value is the best system.

If you know our tiers well, feel free to skip to the quarterback rankings below. If you are just finding us recently, perhaps after the Wall Street Journal article Thursday that said we were "hands down" the best draft service out there, then take a minute before diving in.

Cheats sheets are great, but don't always see the big picture. Tiers can help when you have a difficult choice like taking your starting tight end in the seventh round or continuing to build depth at running back.

Let's say Kellen Winslow was near the top of your Top 200 board, and you still have a hole at tight end. It looks like a no-brainer.

Looking at your tiers, however, you notice that many other tight ends from his tier Owen Daniels, Dustin Keller, and Zach Miller are still available.

You already have your starting running backs, but you check your tiers and notice that Colts rookie Donald Brown is the only player left from the fourth tier of backs. You don't necessarily need another back, but there is a huge projected drop-off after Brown. Taking him maximizes value. The draft is all about amassing talent. You can't have too many quality players; that's what trading is for.

There is almost certain to be a similarly valued tight end to Winslow available with your next pick. Brown is the choice.

The 2009 Quarterback Tiers are below. Our Draft Guide Subscribers have had access to the constantly evolving tiers at each position since June. They will get all the important updates to over 500 profiles, projections, rankings, and tiers in the buildup to draft day. They can customize their cheat sheets to fit their individual scoring system.

Serious owners can take advantage of our Touchdown package with the Draft Analyzer to help you make decisions on the big day. This is the product about which the Journal wrote: "Rotoworld provided so much information and value it is hands down our No. 1 pick."

The only thing we can guarantee about fantasy football is that value changes every day, and so do the rankings. So consider this the quarterback snapshot for August 21, 2008.

Quarterback Tiers of Heaven

Last year was supposed to be the year of the quarterback in drafts. Everyone talked about how safe high quarterback picks were. Then Bernard Pollard happened.

There are compelling arguments for and against taking a quarterback early in drafts. Tom Brady's knee not withstanding, they are usually safer picks than running backs. But position scarcity devalues quarterbacks because there are so many quality options, and you only need to find one to start each week. No matter where you draft them, Brady's injury is a reminder of how important your QB2 position is.

One reason we like quarterback value this year: after Brady's injury last year, the top three are going for relatively cheap prices. You should be able to find a quality starter at a cheap price as long as you pay attention.

Tier One: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning

The big three. There isn't a lot of separation within this group, even though Brees will often go a round higher than the other two. The Saints are likely to throw less, but he's still the favorite to lead the league in attempts and yards. Brady is the riskiest pick, but has the highest ceiling, only two years removed from throwing 50 touchdowns. He's looked good, not great, in the preseason. (We worry about not stepping into throws.)

Manning is the safest pick, the equivalent of a comfortable old shoe. His lack of sizzle this season could make him the best value of this tier if he slips to round four. Again, there isn't a huge gap between these three.

We've seen Brady and Manning slip to the end of the third round, which is too far. They are better picks than many shaky second running backs and wide receivers. Brees is overvalued if taken in the top-15 picks.

Tier Two: Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo

It's odd to make a tier this small, but our projections had these two clearly above the rest of the QB1 field. Romo will be a good value outside the top-50 picks. He's been a fantasy star from day one and the impact of Terrell Owens' loss has been overrated. Rodgers looked fully formed in his first season as a starter. He has a creative pass-first coach and a great group of receivers. He's a very safe pick.
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Gregg Rosenthal is the Managing Editor of Rotoworld.com and has directed its football content since 2003. He co-hosts the NBC Fantasy Fix and covers the NFL for NBCSports.com and Profootballtalk.com. Gregg was named the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year in 2007, but did not repeat in '08. He's out for vengeance now on Twitter.
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