Changing on a dime

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Gregg Rosenthal
Football Daily Dose
September 28, 2009
Changing on a dime
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Some Panic is Acceptable

1. Terrell Owens and Lee Evans are both under 100 yards on the season. At least Owens was targeted deep twice Sunday, even though he didn't have a catch. Evans is averaging 11.1 yards-per-catch, almost five yards below his career average.

The Bills offense should get more vertical, but probably not enough for either wide receiver to live up to their draft value. Still, it's not a bad time to buy low if it's low enough.

2. It says a lot about the Washington ground game that Jim Zorn thought they best way to beat the Lions would be to go pass-wacky. Clinton Portis looks like just another guy, and he's no longer catching passes.

3. We might not know much more about Kevin Smith's shoulder injury for a while, but his backups (Maurice Morris, Aaron Brown) aren't very exciting since they will likely be splitting the workload.

4. Beanie Wells isn't going to play very much when Arizona is playing from behind.

5. JaMarcus Russell is making it very difficult for any other Raider – Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, and Zach Miller especially – to have any fantasy value. He's also making it difficult to watch Raiders games.

6. Santonio Holmes keeps dropping passes, but the factors that have allowed him to get open and targeted so often aren't going to change.

7. I have to pick on Laveranues Coles every week, so here's another reminder that Andre Caldwell is a better player and fantasy option than him. Also: that Chris Henry breakout we were hoping for … let's not give up, but let's not hold on to the dream in most 12-team leagues either.

8. The Steelers must not be excited about what Rashard Mendenhall can give them to only hand him the ball seven times in the first three games. (Not once Sunday against the Bengals.)

9. You can question whether the move to Josh Johnson at starting quarterback for the Bucs was a good move for the organization, but it's almost certainly bad news for hope of an Antonio Bryant rebound.

10. Think of all the players on your team that haven't scored: Matt Forte, Steven Jackson, Steve Slaton, Randy Moss, Antonio Gates, etc. Then think about the fact that something called Daniel Fells scored twice for the Rams Sunday. Then stab yourself with a spork.

11. I listed T.J. Housmandzadeh as a potential bust before the season not because I didn't think he would help the Seahawks, just because I didn't think he'd live up to his draft stock. He's a chain-mover; a younger, slightly better Bobby Engram with a much better contract. He's a fantasy WR3/4.

12. The Browns offense threatens to bring down everyone on it, including Braylon Edwards. But Edwards owners should definitely hope for Derek Anderson to take over the starting quarterback job.

13. James Davis remains a solid stash in deeper leagues, but there's no doubt Jerome Harrison is the better option right now. Harrison quietly accounted for nearly half of Cleveland's offense against Baltimore.

14. Thomas Jones is getting plenty of carries, but is no longer part of the passing game.

15. The longest pass completed by a Kansas City Chief Sunday was by Mark Bradley. The longest catch by a wide receiver was also by Bradley – 13 yards.

Stepping Off the Ledge

1. Santana Moss may have lost a step, but he's still due for a monster game every four weeks or so. Owners just have to decide if he's worth tolerating the other three. (Against Tampa this week, the answer is yes.)

2. Brandon Marshall didn't start Sunday, but he finished as the Broncos leader in catches, targets, receiving yards, and scored his first touchdown of the year. Denver remains conservative on offense, but Marshall is coming around and the team will have to throw more once they face better opponents.

3. I'm not sure whether to be encouraged that Steven Jackson racked up 163 yards from scrimmage Sunday on 32 touches or worried about a future with Kyle Boller. (Now if only there were some decent quarterbacks available in recent drafts.) In the end, not much has changed about my viewpoint. Jackson will put up enough yards this year to be a serviceable fantasy starter, but not enough touchdowns to live up to his draft stock.

4. Jay Cutler has thrown five touchdowns and one pick in the last two weeks. His YPA for the year is right at his career average. He's on pace for 4,000 yards passing.

5. Don't assume that Fred Taylor's breakout day will lead to a consistent pattern in the New England backfield. It will be opponent-based, and the team will ride the hot hand.

6. Tom Brady didn't play any better Sunday than he did the previous two; he may have missed more throws. Fantasy owners should be encouraged he continues to put up numbers while rounding into form.

7. Chris Brown's annoying goal-line role not withstanding, Steve Slaton owners should be happy with 109 yards on 15 touches. Some touchdowns will come.

They're real and they're spectacular

1. Pierre Garcon looks like he might be good for one big play a week with defenses focusing all of their attention elsewhere.

2. Mike Sims-Walker should have been your top wide receiver add last week, and should be picked up in all the leagues that didn't go for him last week.

3. LeSean McCoy is too talented and Brian Westbrook is too injury prone to not have a committee moving forward.

4. Willis McGahee is going to score 32 touchdowns this year on roughly 200 touches. Or at least that's what he's on pace for.

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Gregg Rosenthal is the Managing Editor of Rotoworld.com and has directed its football content since 2003. He co-hosts the NBC Fantasy Fix and covers the NFL for NBCSports.com and Profootballtalk.com. Catch him on Twitter.
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