The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series kicks off the 2008 season with the 50th running of the Daytona 500. Race Preview looks at past performances, practice sessions, and trends to project how the field will finish.
When: Sunday, February 17; 2 p.m./et
The Track: Daytona International Speedway
Daytona International Raceway is a 2.5-mile tri-oval with extreme 31 degree banking on the corners. The intense banking allows drivers to run wide-open nearly the entire way around the track. As a result of the incredible speeds the cars are able to run at Daytona, NASCAR has made all Sprint Cup Series races at the track restrictor plate races. The plate on their engines limits air-intake thus reducing horsepower.
Key to Race: AVOID THE BIG WRECK
As is the case with all restrictor plate races, the field will become bunched into two and three-wide groups of up to 30 cars. These freight train like packs cruise around the track at insane speeds just inches away from each other. It takes just one car to have a flat or get loose and a massive accident risks wiping out much of the field. A major accident will happen in the race. It is just a matter of when and how big. If a driver can get lucky and stay away from the inevitable crash he will have a great chance for a strong finish.
Qualifying Procedures:
Around 55 cars will attempt to qualify for 43 starting spots. The top two spots will be locked in during Budweiser Shootout day on Feb. 9th. Those cars that don't qualify in either of the top two spots and were not in the top 35 in the 2007 point standings will have to qualify based during the Feb. 14th Gatorade Duels. Starting positions 3-39 will be determined by order of finish during the Gatorade Duel races and the final four spots will go to Sprint Cup Series past champions or cars that had fast speeds on Budweiser Pole day, but didn't fare well during the Gatorade Duel races.
Fantasy Cheat Sheet:
Top 5
No. 48 Jimmie Johnson: It is tough not to pick the 2007 Nextel Cup champion. He won the 2006 Daytona 500 and has been pretty dominant (eight top 10 finishes in 12 career starts) at Daytona during his career.
No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior has been awesome in restrictor plate races during his career and he finally has a chance to drive the top equipment in the sport. We look for Hendrick Motorsports and the No. 88 to make a big splash at Daytona this year. His third career win at the famous track wouldn't surprise us.
No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon has five career full-length race wins at Daytona. Hendrick Motorsports has been dominant in CoT development and the No. 24 car is a great choice to notch another win at Daytona.
No. 07 Clint Bowyer: Bowyer has cracked the top 10 in three of his four career starts at Daytona. After a surprisingly successful end to the 2007 season we think he is a great pick in this year's race.
No. 20 Tony Stewart: Stewart has won two of the last five races at Daytona. He has looked fast during Preseason Thunder, but we question if Toyota will be able to rebound from their disastrous 2007 season.
6 to 10
No. 17 Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has been consistent at Daytona during his career, but the talented driver has yet to find victory lane at the famous track. We expect a win will elude him again this time, but a top 10 finish is expected.
No. 29 Kevin Harvick: Harvick won his only race of the 2007 season during last year's Daytona 500. He should be strong again this year.
No. 25 Casey Mears: Daytona was very good to Mears in 2006 (second and seventh), but he struggled at the track during 2007. He will have pressure to improve during his second season at Hendrick Motorsports and we feel he will respond with a top 10 finish at Daytona.
No. 2 Kurt Busch: Busch has finished in the top five in six of his 14 career Daytona starts. He was strong in CoT races last season and is a great pick.
No. 26 Jamie McMurray: McMurray won July's Pepsi 400 at Daytona and he has finished in the top 10 in two of the last three races at the track. We like his chances to finish near the top 10 again.
11 to 20
No. 18 Kyle Busch: Busch moves from Hendrick Motorsport's top notch Car of Tomorrow program to the Toyota's of Joe Gibbs Racing. He has looked fast during the early weeks of Preseason Thunder, but with the team and car change we are hesitant to select him to finish in the top 10 at Daytona.
No. 31 Jeff Burton: Burton is always a bit of an underrated fantasy driver and is often overlooked when it comes time to select teams. We think his value makes him one of the best third drivers you can have on any fantasy team.
No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle won the Pepsi 400 at Daytona in 2003, but he hasn't had much luck other than that race at the famous speedway. In ten career starts at Daytona he has just two top 10 finishes.
No. 9 Kasey Kahne: Kahne had a VERY disappointing 2007 season, but during the debacle Daytona was a track where he actually had success. With Budweiser on the hood of his car we think he could make a splash during this year's edition of the Daytona 500.
No. 99 Carl Edwards: Edwards is a solid restrictor plate driver, but he hasn't had much success at Daytona in his career. We expect he should be one of the top drivers in the series this season, but we don't recommend him too highly during the 500.
No. 38 David Gilliland: Normally we don't like Gilliland, but he has been decent in restrictor plate races during his career. He captured both poles at Daytona in 2007 and is worth taking a flyer on as a fifth driver on fantasy teams.
No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya oozes with talent, but there was a definite adjustment period for him in his move from Formula 1 to NASCAR last season. We think he will have great success this season and should crack the top 20 during the Daytona 500.
No. 12 Ryan Newman: Newman did very well in CoT races and is always a terrific qualifier. He could be a sleeper during the 2008 season, but we don't recommend him very highly during the Daytona 500.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin had a terrific 2007 season, but he has been simply awful at Daytona during his career. We recommend using the No. 11 car another weekend.
No. 1 Martin Truex Jr: Truex will face added pressure as he takes over the top car at DEI this season. We think he will respond with a season similar to his successful 2007 campaign, but Daytona is a track where he has never been successful.
21 to 30
No. 19 Elliott Sadler: Sadler, like Kasey Kahne, was a victim of Evernham Motorsports faulty test data last season. He has had success at Daytona in the past, but avoid him until his team can prove they have fixed the issues that plagued them last season.
No. 6 David Ragan: Ragan crashed more cars than any driver in the NASCAR Sprint Series last season. He should be much better in his sophomore campaign, but he isn't worth using in fantasy leagues.
No. 7 Robby Gordon: Gordon has cracked the top 15 in the last four races at Daytona. We like his chances to crack the top 25 again this year.
No. 15 Paul Menard: Menard is one of our top fourth or fifth fantasy driver picks this season. He should finish the Daytona 500 inside the top 30.
No. 60 Boris Said: Said has been very successful during the last three races at Daytona. He is a huge sleeper prospect, but isn't worth gambling on.
No. 41 Reed Sorenson: Sorenson has just one top 20 finish during his career at Daytona. We expect it will be difficult to make it two during the Daytona 500.
No. 66 Scott Riggs: Riggs has always had a very difficult time staying out of trouble during restrictor plate races. We think he could be a bit of sleeper in 2008, but avoid him during the Daytona 500.
No. 40 Dario Franchitti: Franchitti brings even more star power from open-wheeled racing to NASCAR. He is talented, but we think the stock car learning curve will hit him hard during the Daytona 500.
No. 96 J.J. Yeley: Yeley switches teams and car manufacturers for the 2008 season. He is talented, but we don't think he will make much a fantasy splash.
No. 77 Sam Hornish Jr.: Hornish Jr. is our pick of the open-wheeler invasion to win the Rookie of the Year this season. He isn't an option at Daytona though.
31 to 40
No. 83 Brian Vickers: Vickers missed last year's Daytona 500, but he has been surprisingly good at Daytona in his career. He should make the field this year, but we can't recommend him as a fantasy pick.
No. 21 Bill Elliott: Elliott will have the No. 21 Wood's Brothers car in the field, but we don't like his chances.
No. 10 Patrick Carpentier: Carpentier makes the move to NASCAR after a successful run in open-wheel racing. He will struggle.
No. 01 Regan Smith: Smith is behind the wheel of the 01 US Army car for the Daytona 500. He should come cheap, but isn't worth taking a gamble on.
No. 00 David Reutimann: Was the top Toyota during qualifying for last year's Daytona 500. He is a risky pick, but he should make the field.
No. 84 A.J. Allmendinger: Allmendinger has been one of the faster cars during Preseason Thunder, but we don't think he is worthy of a spot on fantasy NASCAR rosters.
No. 22 Dave Blaney: Even with his impressive numbers during Preseason Thunder, Blaney is the definition of mediocre. He is never good, but never that bad. He won't help your fantasy team.
No. 43 Bobby Labonte: Labonte has just one top 25 finish in his last six starts at Daytona. Not someone to have on your team.
No. 44 Dale Jarrett: Jarrett has four career wins at Daytona, but he hasn't won at the famous track since 2000. He is running a limited schedule in 2008 and isn't a fantasy option.
No. 55 Michael Waltrip: Waltrip has usually been great at Daytona during his career, but 2007 was disastrous for his race team and the Toyota Camry. Stay away from him.
Field Fillers
No. 45 Kyle Petty: Petty will once again be in the back-of-the-pack.
No. 70 Jeremy Mayfield: Mayfield is back behind the wheel of a fulltime ride. He is a back-of-the-pack driver and isn't a fantasy option.
No. 49 Ken Schrader: Schrader has so much experience behind the wheel of race cars it will be a surprise if he doesn't make the field.
No. 78 Joe Nemechek: Nemechek isn't much of an option on Saturday. He has just two top 10 finish in 27 career Daytona starts.
No. 09 Sterling Marlin: It is good to see Marlin back trying to qualify a NASCAR…too bad it won't happen.
No. 87 Jeff Fuller: Fuller cranked out some fast laps during Preseason Thunder, but he won't make the field.
No. 33 Kirk Shelmerdine: Shelmerdine was the story of last year's Daytona 500. He won't be this year.
No. 34 Eric McClure: McClure will likely be watching Sunday's race from the sideline.
No. 50 Stanton Barrett: Nope!
No. 08 Carl Long: Can't fault him for trying.
No. 57 Norm Benning: Benning has zero chance.
Brownie's Picks
Top Four:
1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Jeff Gordon
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
4. Clint Bowyer
Sleepers:
1. Jamie McMurray
2. David Gilliland
Busts:
1. Denny Hamlin
2. Martin Truex Jr.