1. Chiefs - QB Geno Smith, West VirginiaKansas City Chiefs: 1-7 (.531 SOS)
The Chiefs have enough talent to win, but the issue lies at the quarterback position. Right now, Smith does not impress me as much as the last two number one selections, but the Mountaineer’s pocket awareness and placement will allow him to start early in his career. Eric Stoner looked closer at Smith here: positives and negatives.
Norris' Mock Draft column
2. Panthers - DT Johnathan Hankins (Junior), Ohio StateCarolina Panthers: 1-6 (.608 SOS)
Carolina can go plenty of different ways with this selection. I doubt a quarterback will be coveted enough to be worthy of the second overall pick, but it is also November. Although Jordan Gross is moving towards the end of his career, the Panthers need an injection of talent defensively. Hankins is a very athletic big man that projects either spot on the interior, allowing the Panthers to create more pressure from the inside. Right now, Dwan Edwards is slotted for that three technique tackle role, and fans may be fine with his statistical production, but that is settling for an adequate player.
Norris' Mock Draft column
3. Jaguars - DE Damontre Moore (Junior), Texas A&MJacksonville Jaguars: 1-6 (.627 SOS)
Damonster has arrived. Jaguars fans may prefer a higher profile name right now, but please look at Moore’s play before getting upset. The junior has experience as both a rush linebacker in a three man front and defensive end in a four man front. His combination of bend, length, closing speed, and hand use is very appealing.
Norris' Mock Draft column
4. Browns - DE Barkevious Mingo (Junior), LSUCleveland Browns: 2-6 (.526 SOS)
From a statistical perspective, Mingo has had a down season (three sacks), but look beyond the box score and consider his burst off the edge and natural power in a developing body. His ability to shed is better than that of LSU counterpart Sam Montgomery and Mingo offers a bit of positional versatility.
Norris' Mock Draft column
5. Saints - DE/OLB Dion Jordan, OregonNew Orleans Saints: 2-5 (.392 SOS)
The Saints defense is a mess, and although Spags’ future may be in question, he has always gone by the mentality of drafting a pass rusher over a defensive back. Junior Galette and Martez Wilson are the only Saints that can offer a real pass rush, and Jordan offers the versatility to possibly be a strong side linebacker in a four man front and pass rusher in nickel situations. His combination of length and mobility is outstanding.
Norris' Mock Draft column
6. Rams (via Redskins) - T Luke Joeckel (Junior), Texas A&M
St. Louis Rams (via Redskins): 3-5 (.559 SOS)
The Rams have previously failed with their left tackle selections, but Joeckel projects as an excellent blindside protector. A long time starter, Joeckel has enough mobility to mirror and uses proper technique to sit back, bend at his knees, and absorb a pass rusher’s momentum with length.
7. Rams - G Chance Warmack, Alabama
St. Louis Rams: 3-5 (.567 SOS)
This may be too early for a guard, but Warmack could possibly end the draft process as my top rated prospect, regardless of position. His nasty interior blocking allows Warmack to consistently win on first contact. However, that first powerful punch doesn't end, as the Crimson Tide guard continues to sustain and mirror. I try to stay away from “sure things,” but Warmack is very close.
8. Titans - S Matt Elam (Junior), Florida
Tennessee Titans: 3-5 (.569 SOS)
Michael Griffin is not good. Mike Martin and Jurrell Casey have played as worthy starters this season, so the obvious hole in this defense is at safety. Elam can play too aggressively at times, but his range is outstanding. The Gator covers so much ground in coverage and quickly closes to meet ball carriers at the line of scrimmage.
9. Jets - OLB Jarvis Jones (Junior), Georgia
New York Jets: 3-5 (.614 SOS)
It is difficult to not acknowledge Jones’ speed around the edge and burst off the snap, but I consistently see him struggle with more athletic or mobile offensive tackles due to his initial momentum being stopped. I don’t see a true counter move from Jones often enough. Is that due to a lack of length? A lack of power? I would be much more comfortable getting on the Jones bandwagon if he occasionally stuck his outside foot in the ground and worked back in towards the quarterback, but he rarely does that on his own. He is more Bruce Irvin than Von Miller, and that is certainly not an insult.
10. Bengals - OLB C.J. Mosley (Junior), Alabama
Cincinnati Bengals: 3-4 (.404 SOS)
With Vontaze Burfict flashing plenty of positive play, I’d expect the former UDFA to be moved inside next season, allowing the Bengals to bench (or cut) Rey Maualuga. In steps C.J. Mosley at weakside linebacker. He may not have the name brand appeal of Manti Te’o, but Mosley has played excellent football this season, progressing his game with skills that project him to be an every down player. His range in coverage and physical closing style should intrigue the Bengals.
11. Buccaneers - DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3-4 (.404 SOS)
I was surprised I couldn’t find a home for Star before this pick, but the Bucs get a good one outside of the top ten selections. The senior from Utah flashes dominance, but that style of play needs to be sustained throughout an entire game. Last season, I noted that he failed to locate the football when engaged with his opposing blocker, which resulted in wasted movement. Star has improved in that area and it is likely he and Hankins will battle for that top defensive tackle spot.
12. Chargers - T Taylor Lewan (Junior), Michigan
San Diego Chargers: 4-4 (.431 SOS)
The Chargers do have Jared Gaither back from injury, but how long is that going to last? Lewan offers starter’s ability on the left side and should immediately help a struggling front five that has limited Philip Rivers’ effectiveness. Watch Lewan’s game against Illinois, specifically his snaps against defensive end Michael Buchanan, if you are curious in the Wolverine’s projection.
13. Bills - ILB Manti Te’o, Notre Dame
Buffalo Bills: 3-4 (.434 SOS)
Some really loved Te’o prior to this year. I liked him but definitely had some questions about his sideline to sideline ability, especially in coverage. Those have been answered this season and Te’o has dominated game after game. The Bills severely need help at linebacker, and Te’o is a plug and play prospect on the inside.
14. Raiders - DE Sam Montgomery (Junior), LSU
Oakland Raiders: 3-4 (.490 SOS)
The Raiders are a tough call. I believe they make a change at quarterback, but is one available here that can take advantage of their multiple downfield targets? Matt Shaughnessy is solid versus the run, but he fails to create pressure off the edge. Montgomery can be that speed rusher from multiple angles the Raiders need.
15. Lions - CB Johnthan Banks, Mississippi State
Detroit Lions: 3-4 (.556 SOS)
Banks is easily the top senior corner in the class, as Alen Dumonjic broke down here. Banks has the length to attack targets at the catch point and agile footwork to stick with receivers in man or in zone coverage. I would like to see him play with a more physical presence at times, but Banks would offer consistency for the Lions on the outside.
16. Cowboys - OT/G Dallas Thomas, Tennessee
Dallas Cowboys: 3-4 (.596 SOS)
The Cowboys would love Warmack to land here, but with him already gone Thomas is the next man up. The senior has moved inside this season after being a longtime starter at left tackle. I wouldn't say he is overly powerful on first contact, but Thomas absorbs pass rushers very well, using length and knee bend to redirect. Also, his positional versatility allows him to play on either edge if needed.
17. Eagles - CB Xavier Rhodes (Junior), Florida State
Philadelphia Eagles: 3-4 (.596 SOS)
Rhodes has difficulties tackling on the edge, but his scheme versatility to jam at the line of scrimmage or sit back in off coverage lets me overlook that flaw. Nnamdi Asomugha has apparently lost the ability to flip his hips and run with receivers downfield, so Rhodes’ speed will be a nice upgrade in that area.
18. Seahawks - OT Jake Matthews (Junior), Texas A&M
Seattle Seahawks: 4-4 (.492 SOS)
If he lands with the right team, I could definitely see Matthews protecting the left side of an offensive line. However, the Seahawks biggest need on the front five is at right tackle. Along with suspect play, Breno Giacomini has far too many lapses after the whistle to trot him out in the starting lineup every week.
19. Cardinals - OT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
Arizona Cardinals: 4-4 (.541 SOS)
With the way their offensive line is playing, it does not matter if the Cardinals had Kurt Warner in the pocket, because he wouldn't have time to throw the ball. Insert Fisher, a prospect many of you may not know but offers the skills to be a starter on the left side. The Chippewa handled the Michigan State defensive line while the rest of the group allowed pressure after pressure. His evaluation will only improve in postseason work.
20. Steelers - DE Alex Okafor, Texas
Pittsburgh Steelers: 4-3 (.423 SOS)
This is another tough call, and the selection of Okafor could go two ways. On one hand, he could possibly be the heir apparent to Brett Keisel, who had a very strong season last year but how long will it last? (I have been informed that it isn't the Steelers' style to greatly add to their defensive players' frames) This is a move for the future, as Okafor offers excellent strength to push the pocket with arms extended or hold his ground with a strong anchor versus the run. If that is not possible, I could still see Okafor taking James Harrison's spot down the road as a rush linebacker on the edge. The latter is more likely.
21. Colts - NT Jesse Williams, Alabama
Indianapolis Colts: 4-3 (.463 SOS)
The Colts new 3-4 scheme has lit a fire under Jerry Hughes, but they still lack a true nose tackle. Williams has moved to the nose this season with very positive results. The Colts drafted Josh Chapman to play that spot last April, and I considered him the best run defending interior lineman in the country. Williams and Chapman have obviously played together, but the former plays in a wider area, not a two yard range like Chapman. As we have seen in the past, Williams isn’t locked into the nose tackle spot, either.
22. Dolphins - WR Keenan Allen (Junior), California
Miami Dolphins: 4-3 (.472 SOS)
There has been plenty of talk that Dwayne Bowe may sign with the Dolphins this offseason, but nothing is a sure thing. Allen could be that top option for Ryan Tannehill due to his explosiveness in and out of breaks and size to win at the catch point.
23. Broncos - LB Alec Ogletree (Junior), Georgia
Denver Broncos: 4-3 (.600 SOS)
The Broncos have a handful of solid pieces on the defensive side of the ball, but they are lacking at the inside linebacker position, a spot John Fox has filled with a top talent at each of his destinations. Ogletree offers great length and mobility in coverage, similar to Steelers starter Lawrence Timmons.
24. Vikings - DT Sheldon Richardson (rJunior), Missouri
Minnesota Vikings: 5-3 (.450 SOS)
This is another tough selection, but the Vikings have yet to find a consistent force next to Kevin Williams this season. Richardson has backed up his off-field comments all season, consistently disrupting the backfield with quick footwork or powerful momentum. In fact, I could see Richardson being a riser throughout the process, similar to Fletcher Cox last season.
25. Patriots DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State
New England Patriots: 5-3 (.475 SOS)
I don’t think the Patriots need help offensively, and with Chandler Jones playing well some will question another pass rushing projection. In recent weeks, Alfonzo Dennard has shown enough to be considered a reliable starter, and the same can't be said for Jermaine Cunningham. Rob Ninkovich has done some nice things as well, but Werner offers a nice upgrade at the left defensive end spot.
26. Packers - RB Giovani Bernard (rSoph), UNC
Green Bay Packers: 5-3 (.542 SOS)
This would be a great spot for a team with a need at quarterback to trade back into the first-round and get their guy. Outside of some poor play from rookie Jerel Worthy defensively, I don't see a real need, and the Packers aren't going to make a change there after just one season. Bernard is this year’s top option at running back, if he declares. I absolutely love his choppy footwork to make tacklers miss and third down ability.
27. Ravens - LB Arthur Brown, Kansas State
Baltimore Ravens: 5-2 (.451 SOS)
This is more of a need based selection, but Brown offers a physical nature with excellent closing speed that I don’t think the Ravens currently have at the position. Depending on how he measures, Brown may only be considered a WLB in a four man front, which would take him out of this slot, but just on his play alone Brown deserves consideration in the top 50 selections.
28. Giants - DE Ezekiel Ansah, Brigham Young
New York Giants: 6-2 (.407 SOS)
Another pass rusher? Yes, and this one could end up having a similar career path to JPP. Ansah is new to football but has been nearly dominant in his first year as a starter. Ansah’s closing burst and obvious absorption of technical coaching makes his future bright. Osi is on a one year contract while Justin Tuck’s play has been less than inspiring this year, so the Giants must invest in the position to keep it a strength.
29. 49ers - CB Dee Milliner (Junior), Alabama
San Francisco 49ers: 6-2 (.532 SOS)
This is another potential trade destination. I would have suggested an offensive lineman, but Alex Boone has been a revelation at right guard. Milliner offers physical play that the 49ers defense is known for, and although the unit appears to have young depth at the position (Brown, Culliver, Cox), Milliner would be a nice addition. It is tough to guess what the 49ers need, so the decision could come down to which future contract the team may be looking to part ways with.
30. Bears - S Eric Reid (junior), LSU
Chicago Bears: 6-1 (.392 SOS)
Reid offers outstanding athletic talent, but has had a rocky season from a consistency perspective. Still, he has the skills to be an excellent option in the first-round, especially with a nice end to his junior season.
31. Texans - G Jonathan Cooper, UNC
Houston Texans: 6-1 (.481 SOS)
Cooper is excellent on the move, either pulling or slanting across a defensive lineman’s face. His agile frame in pass protection is also coveted, however, he tends to get beaten most often when faced up with a defender one on one due to a lack of aggressiveness.
32. Falcons - TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame
Atlanta Falcons: 7-0 (.360 SOS)
With Tony Gonzalez at the end of his career, the Falcons will be without an adequate option at the position soon. Enter Eifert, who has improved his run blocking but makes a living off of high pointing targets and out jumping defensive backs. The Falcons could take a step back if an entire facet of their offense is not replaced, and Eifert would still offer an option at the tight end position moving forward.
Why no Matt Barkley or Tyler Wilson?
Here's the issue, despite the cap-friendly contracts that are now assigned to rookies, I am not sure QB needy teams are in a position to draft them here. Possible suitors like Buffalo, Oakland, Arizona (just to name a few) are in a position right now that they can select a better player, regardless of position, and possibly trade back into the first-round for a signal caller of choice. Obviously mocking trades is pointless at this time, but later in the process this will be added. I may be alone, but I do not see the same quarterback talent at the top this season compared to last April. But, if a team has "their guy," expect a selection regardless of who is remaining on the board or a possible deal to get them back into the first-round.