1. Chiefs - QB Geno Smith, West VirginiaThe recent success of second- and third-round quarterbacks is either a new trend or an outlier, because from 2001-2010, only two quarterbacks selected in that two round span can be considered dependable starters (Drew Brees and Matt Schaub). With that said, there is large group of signal callers that could be considered second- or third-round talents this season. Kansas City and Andy Reid can’t afford to wait on whichever one might fall to the outside of the first-round, instead, this is one of the few opportunities a team can chose their favorite from the entire bunch. Here is more on the QB Problem from Eric Stoner.
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2. Jaguars - DE Barkevious Mingo, LSUThis is all based on a guess for scheme fit. Gus Bradley’s scheme featured a run stuffing defensive end in Seattle, likely role Tyson Alualu can play. On the opposite side, the Jaguars need a pass rusher whose main goal is to get to a point in the backfield and disrupt while penetrating. Mingo can line up from the 7 or 9 technique and do this quite well. Don’t get caught up in his dip in production, since it appeared Mingo was asked to take less aggressive lines at the QB in order to keep contain.
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3. Raiders - DT Star Lotulelei, UtahI have no idea who Reggie McKenzie is going to cut this offseason. Neither do the players on the Raiders roster. McKenzie only has ties to a few players on the roster, so a large amount may be expendable. With Richard Seymour’s contact voiding and Tommy Kelly possibly on the outs, the Raiders must resign Desmond Bryant. After that, Star would be a nice piece since he can play from multiple alignments across in a number of fronts.
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4. Eagles - T Luke Joeckel, Texas A&MObviously if Chip Kelly has full confidence that Jason Peters will return to form, this pick might not happen. We still are not sure what type of offensive system Kelly intends to run, but if Oregon-like play calling is featured, the Eagles’ offensive line needs to be very mobile and balanced. Joeckel is an excellent athlete for the left tackle position with great posture. He did show deficiencies against Florida, however.
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5. Lions - CB Dee Milliner, AlabamaThe Lions could use a pass rusher, and in fact I usually side with the defensive end in situations where they have equal grades as corners. For some reason, possibly due to ex-GM Scott Pioli’s junior rankings, I get a feeling Milliner will be more highly coveted than many pass rushers that are generally considered to be in his talent range.
Complete Mock Draft column
6. Browns - OLB Damontre Moore, Texas A&M
With the Browns front seven likely in place outside of a strong side rush linebacker behind a three man front, expect the team to address that need at this selection. Moore has experience at both rush linebacker and defensive end, the latter being in a four man front. He offers a relentless motor, but I would like to see Moore use his length and hands more frequently while planting outside and working back in.
7. Cardinals - QB Mike Glennon, NC State
Strong armed passer who can make quick decisions while vertically testing single high safeties? I think Glennon fits Bruce Arians' style very well and thrives on getting the ball out of his hands immediately after planting off his back foot on three or five step drops. The Cardinals offensive line issues are dreadful, and Glennon struggles the longer the ball is in his hands, especially against interior pressure.
8. Bills - WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
The talent is there for Patterson to be a star, including concentration to make catches with a defensive back draped on him, to touching grabs along the sideline, and excellent vision as a ball carrier. I do not judge character or injuries, instead choosing to list what has been reported. Beat writers worried about Patterson’s academic standing all year, and even though we have seen less than intelligent players show excellent football smarts, it is something to note. One season at the FBS level is too small a sample size to know for sure.
9. Jets - DE/OLB Bjoern Werner, FSU
This is a questionable fit, but just looking at the Jets’ pass rushers, Werner is listed at the same weight (or lighter) than both Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas. He might not have a ton of experience in space or fluid hips, but Werner could be considered the best pass rusher left on the board.
10. Titans - S Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
Vaccaro offers some positional versatility, after showing he can lock down explosive slot receivers like Tavon Austin or roaming in the deep half. Teams will start looking for antidotes to matchup with joker offensive weapons. Vaccaro can do that for the Titans while being an every down player.
11. Chargers - T Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
It may be a stretch to see Fisher last this long, but there might not be a better fit. The Chippewa finds contact through his hands with great extension and control. An immediate starter on the left side, Fisher might be worth trading up for.
12. Dolphins - T Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
Jake Long’s contract situation could dictate this selection, but without him the Dolphins are left with an adequate at best right tackle in Jonathan Martin. Johnson is not a finished product and will likely add weight to fill out a growing frame in order to absorb first contact more efficiently, but his agile feet to mirror pass rushers will keep evaluators optimistic. His posture versus power rushers could use some work.
13. Buccaneers - CB Xavier Rhodes, FSU
The Bucs have a good number of talented and young defensive players, and Rhodes fits the bill as an overly physical edge corner with speed to stick with receivers down field. He can be a bit unorthodox at times, but I definitely consider Rhodes a first-round talent, especially for a scheme that utilizes physical edge defenders.
14. Panthers - DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida
I have a feeling Ron Rivera will want to utilize more versatility in the type of fronts he runs, and Floyd fits that premonition. After mainly playing end in a four man front in 2011, Floyd moved inside and thrived during his junior season. I love his strength to press the pocket with leg drive and powerful hands to shed while penetrating, but don’t overlook Floyd’s agile feet as a weapon.
15. Saints - OLB Dion Jordan, Oregon
With the Saints moving to a 3-4 defense, the team seems to have both ends already on the roster. If they decide to move Akiem Hicks inside, Ezekiel Ansah could be an option here, but as a pass rusher with excellent comfort in space, Dion Jordan is an ideal prospect. The Duck's production might not stand out, but I beg you to watch the film. Jordan might not have ideal bend around the edge, but he covers a lot of ground and has strong hands. An impending shoulder surgery is the only issue.
16. Rams - G Chance Warmack, Alabama
Warmack might end up being my top grade, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he is selected before this, but it is a great fit. Not only can he consistently win one on one matchups, Warmack can move to the second level and maul smaller players. He would help create an identity along the interior of the Rams offensive line.
17. Steelers - OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
This is a different type of edge rusher than we are used to seeing from the Steelers, but Jones’ speed around the edge is undeniable. I worry about his ability to add weight and win on a counter move due to a projected lack of length (that is all without mentioning his history of spinal stenosis) but he can definitely get to the quarterback off the end of a line.
18. Cowboys - DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri
Richardson's talent likely exceeds this slot, but if he is on the board the Cowboys have found their 3 technique defensive tackle. The Missouri product has some Fletcher Cox to him and can be scheme versatile. Richardson ended his career with the Tigers on rocky terms, but he has plenty of talent.
19. Giants - DE Ezekiel Ansah, BYU
This is an awesome fit. Justin Tuck is on the decline and Osi might not return. Ansah is a different type of rusher than JPP and would slide into the left defensive end spot and could see some snaps on the interior. The biggest setback right now is learning to disengage after first contact, but Ansah’s closing speed is the best in this draft among pass rushers.
20. Bears - TE Zach Ertz, Stanford
The Bears could use offensive line help, and Fluker might be an option at right tackle or Cooper on the interior, but Ertz is an inline or detached tight end that is improving his game. He can get stronger as an end of line blocker, but Ertz finds ways to get open as a receiver and shows a willingness to beat physical coverage at the second or third levels.
21. Bengals - OLB Alec Ogletree, Georgia
It might be an easy comparison, but Ogletree has some Thomas Davis to him. He has issues getting sealed off by second level offensive linemen after taking false steps, but Ogletree powerfully closes from the backside when the lane is there or when face up on the edge. I expect Burfict to move inside with Ogletree on the weak side as a three down player.
22. Rams (from Redskins) - OLB Arthur Brown, Kansas State
Jo-Lonn Dunbar had an adequate year on the weak side (outside of pass coverage), but heading into the year there was talk he might play the strong side spot. Insert Brown, a top-15 talent in this class, on the weak side and the linebacking corps is strong behind natural anchor Michael Brockers.
23. Vikings - WR Keenan Allen, Cal
Allen suffered from poor quarterback play at Cal throughout his career, but a slight PCL injury kept him sidelined to finish the 2012 season. His route running to create separation is among the best in the class.
24. Colts - G Jonathan Cooper, UNC
The Colts offensive line might deserve multiple picks in this draft, but the interior was especially a mess. Cooper occasionally loses when attacked face up while in pass protection, but he shines when asked to pull or trap, showing uncanny athleticism out in space. Some schemes might consider him the top guard because of it.
25. Seahawks - DE Datone Jones, UCLA
Okay, this requires some reasoning. Obviously the Seahawks need pass rushing help with Chris Clemons injured. Jones’ frame doesn’t fit the traditional wide rusher but his game does. If asked to disrupt the backfield by attacking a certain depth of the pocket, Jones is very effective due to a combination of explosion and strength off the line. My biggest issue was his hand fighting at the line of scrimmage when asked to read and react. Also, the Seahawks aren’t afraid to a take a risk or chance on prospects that don’t quite seem to fit the traditional mold.
26. Packers - S Johnathan Cyprien, FIU
Many will say Cyprien is only getting attention because of his Senior Bowl performance. Watch his tape at FIU and you will see why I considered him one of the 20 best prospects attending the event prior to the Senior Bowl. Cyprien is an interchangeable, physical safety with range and aggression. I have a feeling the NFL has been high on him for quite some time, with those on the outside now starting to catch up.
27. Texans - WR DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson
A Roddy White type receiver, Hopkins catches everything in (or out) of his range. He has straight-line speed, but Hopkins' hand strength and consistency at the catch point is what makes him one of the top receiver prospects in this class.
28. Broncos - DT Johnathan Hankins, Ohio State
Man, I loved Hankins prior to his junior season. He was disruptive with strong hands to press the pocket or light feet when he needed to burst past mirroring offensive linemen. In 2012, Hankins disappeared far too often and I couldn’t find a real reason why. He has upside because we saw the talent, but the consistency wasn’t there to warrant a higher pick. John Fox has a history of turning these types of players around and the Broncos need to get younger on the interior.
29. Patriots - WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia
The Patriots need more speed offensively, and with Wes Welker likely remaining a major storyline of the offseason, Austin would be an excellent replacement. No one is better in the open field with the ball in his hands and Austin is a creative coordinator’s dream.
30. Falcons - TE Travis Kelce, Cincinnati
This will surprise some, but as an inline option I prefer Kelce to Eifert. I need to give credit to Dane Brugler of CBS Sports for calling Kelce the class’ top senior tight end a couple months ago. He would have shown everyone that ability at the Senior Bowl, but Kelce is extremely talented. This might not be popular right now, but throughout the process expect Kelce to be introduced in the top-50 discussion.
31. 49ers - DL Jesse Williams, Alabama
Williams is widely considered a nose tackle prospect, and although he could play it in the NFL, the Australian also played the 5 technique end spot for some time at Alabama. We all saw the 49ers defense take a step back when Justin Smith was sidelined. Williams is beastly strong and flashes penetration ability.
32. Ravens - S D.J. Swearinger, South Carolina
Swearinger is a personal favorite at the safety position, but also played very well when asked to line up at corner in 2012. There are times when he could be more aggressive and take tighter angles, but Swearinger delivers jarring hits from either safety spot. Roger Goodell isn’t going to like this safety class...