1. New Orleans Hornets – Anthony Davis PF KentuckyEmeka Okafor, Chris Kaman and Carl Landry aren’t guaranteed back in New Orleans, while Gustavo Ayon and Jason Smith are effective, but aren’t household names. Regardless of who comes back and who leaves, go ahead and pencil Davis in as the starting PF for the Hornets, beginning on opening night.
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2. Charlotte Bobcats – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist SF KentuckyThe Bobcats will eventually get over losing out on Davis and then take the next best player in the draft. And that is MKG, who should be a perfect replacement for Corey Maggette, Reggie Williams, or whoever else they were planning on using at SF next season. And the reality of the situation is that MKG could actually end up being the best player in this draft.
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3. Washington Wizards – Harrison Barnes SF North CarolinaI don’t know that Barnes is worthy of the No. 3 pick in this draft, nor am I sure he’ll go that high. But the biggest hole the Wizards seem to have is at small forward, and after MKG, Barnes is probably the best one in this draft.
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4. Cleveland Cavaliers - Brad Beal SG FloridaThe Cavs and those goofy glasses the brass wore at the lottery were really giving off No. 1 pick vibes, but it wasn’t in the cards. They’ll settle for the fourth pick, where SG Brad Beal is expected to be a popular target. The kid can shoot and score like nobody’s business, Anthony Parker may not be back, and Manny Harris isn’t necessarily the answer. The only question is, will the Wiz take Beal at No. 3?
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5. Sacramento Kings – Thomas Robinson PF KansasThe Kings have quality at nearly every position and will simply take the best player available. Whether Mrs. Maloof and the Kings brass will decide that player is Robinson remains to be seen, but it would be surprising to see him drop much farther than No. 5.
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6. Portland Trail Blazers (from Nets) – Jeremy Lamb SG UConn
The Nets actually finished a little too strong and lost out on this pick, and will send it to Portland, which has needs at nearly every position. Lamb is a great prospect (despite concerns about his “motor”) and given the loss of Brandon Roy, and the inconsistency of Wesley Matthews and Jamal Crawford last year, Lamb seems like a logical choice here.
7. Golden State Warriors – Andre Drummond C UConn
The Warriors are theoretically set at PG (Stephen Curry), SG (Klay Thompson), SF (Dorell Wright) and PF (David Lee), and C (Andrew Bogut). But given the injury history of both Curry and Bogut, grabbing a PG or C seems to make sense. And Drummond should be the best player on the board if he’s still there at No. 7.
8. Toronto Raptors – Dion Waiters SG Syracuse
My original Raptors take indicated they’d take another big man, despite having plenty of them around, but I’ve changed my mind, thanks to the Raptors’ faithful and a second look. They’ve got Andrea Bargnani and Jonas Valanciunas is expected to arrive in Toronto this season, which should take care of their starting PF and C. I’m still not sold on Amir Johnson and Ed Davis being anything more than backup big men, and I don’t think the Raptors are either, but taking a wing player does make sense. And Waiters (or Lamb) will likely be the best one available. Neither would get a major role right off the bat as long as DeMar DeRozan has a say, but with the offensively challenged James Johnson as the other wing, a SG could get some decent run at SF for the Raptors next year.
9. Detroit Pistons – Perry Jones PF Baylor
Jones could go earlier than this, but the Pistons could use another big man and Jones is a sleeper in my book. He’s a power forward that plays more like a guard, but assuming he can learn the NBA game and channel his energy positively, he could make a dent in his rookie season. But with Jonas Jerebko, Jason Maxiell and Charlie Villanueva around, don’t expect Jones, or any other rookie PF in Detroit, to get many votes for Rookie of the Year.
10. New Orleans Hornets (from Timberwolves via Clippers) – Damian Lillard PG Weber State
The Hornets still haven’t really recovered from losing Chris Paul, although Jarrett Jack did a nice job of playing point guard last season. They could still use a true point guard though, and Lillard fits the bill.
11. Portland Trail Blazers – Tyler Zeller C North Carolina
The Blazers have been cursed at the center position for years (and years), and therefore still have a need at the position. Zeller should be a quality NBA center, but guys like Illinois’ Meyers Leonard and Mississippi State’s Arnett Moultrie could sneak their way in front of Zeller with good workouts.
12. Milwaukee Bucks – Terrence Jones PF Kentucky
The Bucks are set at guard with Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis, and will therefore be looking for forwards or a center. Jones is a quality big man, but don’t expect much from his rookie year if he lands in Milwaukee, as they have plenty of mediocre big men already on the roster.
13. Phoenix Suns – Jared Sullinger PF Ohio State
Channing Frye left something to be desired this season and the Suns still have Markieff Morris ready to take a big step next season. Their true need is at small forward, and Sullinger might be able to play both forward positions in the NBA, although he’s clearly more suited for PF. Sullinger will likely be the best player available when the Suns pick.
14. Houston Rockets – Meyers Leonard C Illinois
Marcus Camby wants to come back to the Rockets, while Samuel Dalembert will also be back. The Rockets are still trying to replace Yao Ming, and Kevin McHale is not a big Dalembert fan. And with Camby’s constant injury concerns, Leonard looks like a logical choice here. The Lakers, Clippers, Nets, Knicks, Spurs and Jazz don’t have a first-round pick.
15. Philadelphia 76ers – John Henson PF North Carolina
Elton Brand is getting older and the Sixers could use a defensive banger to replace him. Henson should be just that.
16. Houston Rockets (from Knicks) – Austin Rivers SG Duke
I’m not feeling too confident about Rivers making it through the lottery picks without being drafted, so look for him to climb in future mock drafts. Kevin Martin was a bit of a disaster with Kevin McHale and injuries this season, while Courtney Lee appears to be an average SG, at best. Rivers can score and would be a steal if the Rockets can get him this late.
17. Dallas Mavericks – Arnett Moultrie C Mississippi State
Dirk Nowitzki isn’t going to be around forever and my guess is Moultrie can also play some center for a small lineup. The Mavs have needs at both big men positions and Moultrie can fill those. He can also score from the outside, and might end up being a nice transition player as Dirk’s career winds down.
18. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Jazz) – Tony Wroten SG Washington
The Wolves could really use a SG and Wroten might end up being a solid combo guard, able to also play the point. He’s another guy that could climb up this list with solid workouts, but he makes a lot of sense for the Wolves here, if he’s still available. And given David Kahn’s love of drafting point guards, Wroten looks like an ideal pick here.
19. Orlando Magic – Kendall Marshall PG North Carolina
The Magic probably realize that they may not ever win a championship with Jameer Nelson at point guard, and while they could have several glaring holes if Dwight Howard is moved, PG seems like the most obvious one right now. And Marshall has the potential to be a sleeper PG, just like Ty Lawson was.
20. Denver Nuggets – Andrew Nicholson PF St. Bonaventure
Kenneth Faried was a nice surprise for the Nuggets this season, but they could still use some depth down low. Add in the fact Nicholson can also score from the outside, and my bet is that George Karl is going to target him here.
21. Boston Celtics – Jeffery Taylor SF Vanderbilt
It’s hard to know what the Celtics are going to do with Jeff Green hanging in the balance, along with the aging core of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. And they have a big hole at center. Fab Melo could be taken with one of these two picks, but Taylor could be a nice fit as the Celtics start to prepare for life after Pierce.
22. Boston Celtics (from Clippers via Thunder) – Moe Harkless F St. Johns
Harkless is a solid rebounder and can play both forward positions. With Kevin Garnett’s career starting to wind down, Harkless is a logical pick for the Celtics, unless they decide to take a center instead.
23. Atlanta Hawks – Fab Melo C Syracuse
Given the fact that Al Horford is really a power forward and that Zaza Pachulia could be starting at center next season, the Hawks have a glaring need. Melo should be a solid source of rebounds and blocks, and clearly fills a need.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Lakers) – Royce White SF Iowa State
The Cavaliers have plenty of needs across the board, with small forward being one of the glaring ones. White’s as versatile as they come and might be a steal this late.
25. Memphis Grizzlies – John Jenkins SG Vanderbilt
Tony Allen and O.J. Mayo have done a nice job of holding down the shooting guard spot in Memphis, but they are set at every other position. Jenkins is a great shooter and would give Memphis another 3-point option off the bench as a rookie.
26. Indiana Pacers – Draymond Green SF Michigan State
The Pacers are deep and have all positions covered, so they’ll be looking for the best player available. Whether or not Green qualifies as that remains to be seen, he’s got experience, can rebound and score. He was a power forward in college but will have to learn to play small forward in the NBA.
27. Miami Heat – Marquis Teague PG Kentucky
Mario Chalmers was great in Game 2 on Wednesday night, but the Heat would love to add another point guard to the roster to challenge Chalmers and Norris Cole. Teague is just that, and this looks like a perfect match.
28. Oklahoma City Thunder – Quincy Miller SF Baylor
As the playoffs have shown, the Thunder’s biggest need is a scoring big man, but I doubt they’ll find him this late in the draft. They could also use someone to give Kevin Durant some minutes relief, and Miller, who will take some time to develop after knee surgery, could be a solid backup for Durant down the line.
29. Chicago Bulls – Terrence Ross SG Washington
Richard Hamilton was injured for much of the season and shooting guard is definitely a place the Bulls could use some help. Ross can also play some minutes at small forward, backing up Luol Deng, and looks like an excellent choice for the Bulls. Yes, Derrick Rose will miss most of next season, but C.J. Watson and John Lucas should be able to hold down the fort.
30. Golden State Warriors (from Spurs) – Festus Ezeli C Vanderbilt
With PG Stephen Curry and C Andrew Bogut both being huge injury risks, the Warriors could use healthy bodies at both positions. Ezeli should crash the boards and block shots, but has limited upside as well as limited offensive potential. But the Warriors don’t really need another scorer. They need a defensive center who can fill in for Bogut when his back acts up again.