1. New Orleans Hornets – Anthony Davis PF KentuckyDavis has been hanging out with Hornets coach Monty Williams and this pick seems iron clad. If Davis isn’t taken at No. 1, it might be the upset of the year in sports.
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2. Charlotte Bobcats – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist SF KentuckyI was very tempted to give into peer pressure and finally bump Kansas PF Thomas Robinson up to the Bobcats, dropping Michael Kidd-Gilchrist out of the No. 2 spot. But when I look at what Charlotte has at small forward (not much) and Bismack Biyombo at PF, I keep going back to MKG ending up in Charlotte. Maybe I’m wrong, but my hope is that everyone else is barking up the wrong tree here. Corey Maggette and Reggie Williams are not the answer for Charlotte at SF, and if they keep this pick and skip on Robinson, Kidd-Gilchrist should be the guy. And he could also end up being the best player in this draft.
(Update: The Bobcats traded for SG Ben Gordon from the Pistons on Tuesday night and that could mean that the Bobcats will trade the No. 2 pick, or skip SG Bradley Beal and target SF Kidd-Gilchrist - especially since they moved SF Corey Maggette in the deal.)
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3. Washington Wizards – Bradley Beal SG Florida (Version 2: Harrison Barnes SF North Carolina)Now that the Wizards went out and moved Rashard Lewis to get Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor, things have changed a bit. Ariza can start at small forward and Bradley Beal’s stock has only gotten better with time. I’m giving into the Beal hype and putting him in Washington. And if it happens, Jordan Crawford could see a bit of a squeeze on his playing time.
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4. Cleveland Cavaliers – Thomas Robinson PF Kansas (Version 2: Bradley Beal SG Florida)If Robinson is still available here, and Beal and MKG are off the board, Robinson will simply be too good to pass up. He’ll have to fight for playing time with Anderson Varejao and Tristan Thompson, but the Cavs would at least have plenty of quality bigs to put on the floor every night. The Cavs would still rather have a wing player at No. 4, but the two they’d be most interested in may not be around after the first three picks.
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5. Sacramento Kings – Harrison Barnes SF North Carolina (Version 2: Thomas Robinson PF Kansas)The Kings should simply be looking for the best player available here and it could easily be Barnes. He would play behind Tyreke Evans, but should fit in nicely with the Kings. He’s refused to work out for Sacramento, but would potentially offer some immediate help there. But he’ll have to slip by the Cavs in order to be available for the Kings.
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6. Portland Trail Blazers (via Brooklyn Nets) – Damian Lillard PG Weber State
Lillard considers himself the best point guard in the draft and shot it very well at the Combine. His name is still most associated with the Trail Blazers, who will likely be in need of a point guard if and when Raymond Felton is sent packing. Lillard has also said all the right things in regards to going to Portland, and it appears we may have a love connection brewing here. For now, I’m saying the Blazers pull the trigger on him at No. 6.
7. Golden State Warriors – Andre Drummond C UConn (Version 2: Perry Jones PF Baylor)
The Warriors are theoretically set at PG (Stephen Curry), SG (Klay Thompson), SF (Dorell Wright) and PF (David Lee), and C (Andrew Bogut), but also seem hell bent on making a trade before the draft. The guys they’re targeting are rumored to include Andre Iguodala, Luol Deng, Nicolas Batum, Rudy Gay, Josh Smith and Danny Granger, but landing one of them isn’t going to be easy. They could use some depth at PG and C given Stephen Curry’s and Andrew Bogut’s injury histories, but it appears they really want another option at forward besides Wright and Brandon Rush, as well. But getting some insurance for Bogut seems like the way to go here, and Drummond could be a solid NBA center once he gets a year or two of development under his belt.
8. Toronto Raptors – Jeremy Lamb SG UConn (Version 2: Dion Waiters SG Syracuse)
There have been rumors that both the Raptors and Suns have made a promise to Syracuse SG Dion Waiters, although the Raptors have denied it. Promise or not, the Raps want a swingman in the draft, unless they trade for an established veteran. Waiters makes sense for the Raptors, although I think I like high-scoring SG Jeremy Lamb better. And if they take Lamb, it wouldn’t be surprising to see DeMar DeRozan eventually move to small forward, sending defensive specialist James Johnson to the bench.
9. Detroit Pistons – Perry Jones PF Baylor (Version 2: Jeremy Lamb SG UConn)
The Pistons have Ben Gordon and Rodney Stuckey to play SG, and appear to be targeting a big man here. Jones should be a solid NBA power forward and should be ready to offer some immediate help to the Pistons. I still wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a shooting guard with this pick, but they appear to be focused on getting a banger here.
10. New Orleans Hornets (from Timberwolves via Clippers) – Austin Rivers SG Duke (Version 2: Andre Drummond C UConn)
The Hornets see Rivers as a potential combo-guard, and while Jarrett Jack was solid at the point last season, they could use more options to run the offense. Rivers should be a relatively safe pick here, and I get the sense the Hornets want him. And on a side note, don’t be too surprised if the Hornets don’t make a serious run at PG Chris Paul after next season, as he still has numerous ties and reasons to return to New Orleans, if the price is right, but the Clippers are also going to do everything they can to keep Paul from bailing.
11. Portland Trail Blazers – Meyers Leonard C Illinois (Version 2: Austin Rivers SG Duke)
If the Blazers get PG Damian Lillard with the No. 6 pick, getting a center or shooting guard should happen at No. 11, if they don’t trade the pick. No. 11 seems a little too soon for UNC C Tyler Zeller, and Leonard is big enough and talented enough to warrant being picked here. Zeller and Mississippi State’s C Arnett Moultrie are also going to get a look from Portland here, along with shooting guard Dion Waiters.
12. Milwaukee Bucks – Tyler Zeller C North Carolina (Version 2: Meyers Leonard C Illinois)
The Bucks are set at guard with Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis, and will therefore be looking for forwards or a center. Ekpe Udoh and Drew Gooden are the best big men in Milwaukee after they traded Andrew Bogut, and Zeller is likely to be the best big man still on the board at this stage of the draft. Arnett Moultrie will also get a close look from the Bucks.
13. Phoenix Suns – Kendall Marshall PG North Carolina (Version 2: Jared Sullinger PF Ohio State)
Steve Nash is not getting any younger and is an unrestricted free agent, meaning the Suns need to be looking for a point guard. Marshall should be a good one and this looks like a nice spot for the Suns to snag him. If they don’t go with a PG, taking a PF like Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger, Kentucky’s Terrence Jones or Carolina’s John Henson would make sense.
14. Houston Rockets – Jared Sullinger PF Ohio State (Version 2: Tyler Zeller C North Carolina)
Marcus Camby wants to come back to the Rockets, while Samuel Dalembert will also be back. The Rockets are still trying to replace Yao Ming, and Kevin McHale is not a big Dalembert fan. And with Camby’s constant injury concerns, combined with the fact that Sullinger should be able to play both PF and C, makes him a logical pick at No. 14. And despite the red flags surrounding the health of his back, Sullinger could end up being a steal if he can stay healthy.
15. Philadelphia 76ers – John Henson PF North Carolina
Elton Brand is getting older and the Sixers could use a defensive banger to replace him. Henson should be just that. If they don’t go with Henson here, Terrence Jones would be another solid option.
16. Houston Rockets (from Knicks) – Dion Waiters SG Syracuse (Version 2: Terrence Jones PF Kentucky)
If the Raptors take Jeremy Lamb at No. 8, the Rockets could be excited to see Waiters still here, especially after supposedly having a guarantee to go earlier. The Blazers reportedly really like Waiters, but it would make sense for them to get a point guard and center instead of a shooting guard on draft night. Kevin Martin is currently the SG in Portland, but after an injury-filled year and not much love from Kevin McHale, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to find another option at the position.
17. Dallas Mavericks – Arnett Moultrie PF/C Mississippi State
Dirk Nowitzki isn’t going to be around forever and my guess is Moultrie can also play some center for a small lineup. The Mavs have needs at both big men positions and Moultrie can fill those. He can also score from the outside, and might end up being a nice transition player as Dirk’s career winds down.
18. Houston Rockets (from Timberwolves, via Jazz) – Terrence Jones PF Kentucky (Version 2: Tony Wroten SG Washington)
The Rockets picked up another draft pick by trading Chase Budinger to the Wolves, and they could really go any direction here. If they take a SG and big man with the first two picks, taking another PF or a swingman here would work. And Jones, or Washington’s Terrence Ross, should get a close look from Houston at 18.
19. Orlando Magic – Terrence Ross SG/SF Washington (Version 2: Kendall Marshall PG North Carolina)
The Magic would like to get a point guard here, but the best ones should be gone before they pick. And given all the question marks in Orlando, they should take the best player available. And that could be Ross, who would play behind Hedo Turkoglu, J.J. Redick and Jason Richardson.
20. Denver Nuggets – Moe Harkless F St. Johns
Kenneth Faried was a nice surprise for the Nuggets this season, but they could still use some depth down low. Add in the fact that Harkless can play either forward spot, and he makes a lot of sense for Denver, who will also take a close look at Andrew Nicholson out of St. Bonaventure.
21. Boston Celtics – Festus Ezeli C Vanderbilt (Version 2: Andrew Nicholson PF St. Bonaventure)
It’s hard to know what the Celtics are going to do with Jeff Green hanging in the balance, along with the aging core of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. And they also have a big hole at center. Fab Melo could be taken with one of these two picks, but they may look to back up (or replace) Kevin Garnett at PF with St. Bonaventure’s Andrew Nicholson. He is also a solid shooter from the outside, which should boost his draft stock in the end. But the Celtics really need a center, and Ezeli looks like a good one, if the C’s pass on Melo.
22. Boston Celtics (from Clippers via Thunder) – John Jenkins SG VanderbiltJenkins is a sleeper and it appears that Ray Allen will not be back with the Celtics next season. They’ve got Avery Bradley, but securing another shooting guard should be a priority for the Celtics. Jenkins is a great shooter and would give Boston a nice option as another 3-point shooter to help fill the hole left by Allen.
23. Atlanta Hawks – Fab Melo C Syracuse
Given the fact that Al Horford is really a power forward and that Zaza Pachulia could be starting at center next season, the Hawks have a glaring need. Melo should be a solid source of rebounds and blocks, and clearly fills a need. But the biggest question is whether or not he’ll still be available this late. If the Celtics take Melo instead of Festus Ezeli, the Hawks may be forced to take him.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Lakers) – Royce White SF Iowa State
The Cavaliers have plenty of needs across the board, with small forward being one of the glaring ones. White’s as versatile as they come and might be a steal this late.
25. Memphis Grizzlies – Jeff Taylor SF Vanderbilt
Rudy Gay has the small forward position locked down in Memphis, but his name keeps popping up in trade rumors. If they do move him, Taylor could be a serious target for the Grizzlies at No. 25.
26. Indiana Pacers – Tyshawn Taylor PG Kansas (Version 2: Draymond Green SF Michigan State)
The Pacers are deep and have all positions covered, so they’ll be looking for the best player available, although it’s tough to tell whether they’ll be able to keep both George Hill and Darren Collison in the future. Taylor has a lot of college experience and should be able to contribute right away. He’s also got good size and is a decent defender, which will help his stock.
27. Miami Heat – Marquis Teague PG Kentucky
Mario Chalmers caught the ire of LeBron James and several other teammates throughout the playoffs and the Heat would love to add another point guard to the roster to challenge Chalmers and Norris Cole. Teague is just that, and this looks like a perfect match.
28. Oklahoma City Thunder – Andrew Nicholson PF St. Bonaventure (Version 2: Quincy Miller SF Baylor)
As the playoffs have shown, the Thunder’s biggest need is a scoring big man, and if Nicholson falls this far, he should fit he need. He’s a solid shooter for a big, but may not still be around this late in the draft.
29. Chicago Bulls – Draymond Green SF Michigan State (Version 2: Terrence Ross SG Washington)
Richard Hamilton was injured for much of the season and shooting guard is definitely a place the Bulls could use some help. There is also talk that the Bulls may try to move Luol Deng, making Green a real possibility for the Bulls here. Yes, Derrick Rose will miss most of next season, but C.J. Watson and John Lucas should be able to hold down the fort.
30. Golden State Warriors (from Spurs) – Tony Wroten SG Washington (Version 2: Festus Ezeli C Vanderbilt)
With PG Stephen Curry and C Andrew Bogut both being huge injury risks, the Warriors could use healthy bodies at both positions. Wroten might end up being a combo-guard in the NBA, and might be the best bet for the Warriors with the final pick of Round 1.