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Beyond the Box Score

2019 Deep Target Report - Expected PPR Points

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: January 7, 2020, 1:11 pm ET
PPRDepthAverage

 

In general, the deeper a target to a receiver is downfield, the more fantasy points it’s worth. The chart above shows the exact relationship between a target’s air yards and PPR points. A target 40 yards downfield is worth 2.5 PPR points on average, while a target five yards beyond the line of scrimmage is worth just 1.6 PPR points. 

Deep targets are obviously important for fantasy football, yet don’t get that much attention in fantasy analysis. That needs to change, even if deep targets are by far the most volatile type of target. To add some fire to the deep target discussion, I built loess regression models that predicted PPR points for every single target beyond 15 yards of the line of scrimmage in the 2019 season. I then added up the predicted PPR points for every single player who had a deep target (15+ air yards) to figure out which receivers played above/below expectations in 2019:

 

DeepTargetRegressionCandidates

 

This chart has every pass catcher’s predicted PPR points on deep targets from my model (x-axis) and actual PPR points on deep targets (y-axis). The players labeled on the bottom are positive regression candidates -- they were unlucky, maybe bad, in 2019 but should be better in 2020 if their usage stays the same -- while the players at the top are negative regression candidates. 

 


Top 100 WRs in Expected Fantasy Points Per Game on Deep Targets

The "PPR" column is the average PPR fantasy points per game on deep targets only (15+ air yards). The "Predicted" column is my models' expected PPR fantasy points per game on deep targets. The "PPR +/-" is the difference between the two. A positive number means a receiver performed above expectations on deep targets given his usage. 

Rank

Receiver

PPR

Predicted

PPR +/-

Deep Targets

1

Mike Evans

8.7

7.6

1.1

3.5

2

Julio Jones

6.1

7.1

-1.0

3.5

3

Mike Williams

6.2

6.6

-0.3

3.0

4

Kenny Golladay

8.2

6.3

1.9

2.9

5

John Brown

6.8

6.3

0.6

3.0

6

Odell Beckham

4.5

5.8

-1.3

2.8

7

Robby Anderson

5.2

5.6

-0.4

2.7

8

Marvin Jones

5.5

5.6

-0.1

2.6

9

Curtis Samuel

2.6

5.6

-3.0

2.8

10

John Ross

6.0

5.5

0.5

2.6

11

DeVante Parker

7.6

5.5

2.1

2.7

12

Keenan Allen

4.8

5.4

-0.6

2.8

13

DeAndre Hopkins

6.0

5.4

0.6

2.5

14

Allen Robinson

5.2

5.4

-0.2

2.7

15

Davante Adams

5.9

5.4

0.6

2.6

16

Tyreek Hill

7.5

5.2

2.3

2.4

17

Chris Godwin

7.7

5.2

2.5

2.5

18

James Washington

5.1

5.2

-0.1

2.4

19

Terry McLaurin

6.1

5.1

1.1

2.4

20

Preston Williams

3.0

5.1

-2.0

2.6

21

Calvin Ridley

6.0

5.0

1.0

2.5

22

Breshad Perriman

6.2

5.0

1.2

2.4

23

Tyler Lockett

5.3

4.9

0.3

2.3

24

Amari Cooper

6.5

4.9

1.6

2.3

25

D.J. Chark

5.7

4.8

0.9

2.3

26

Jarvis Landry

4.8

4.8

0.0

2.3

27

Sterling Shepard

4.2

4.6

-0.5

2.3

28

Stefon Diggs

7.5

4.5

3.0

2.0

29

Darius Slayton

5.1

4.5

0.6

2.2

30

Tyrell Williams

4.6

4.4

0.2

2.1

31

Courtland Sutton

5.5

4.4

1.1

2.1

32

Golden Tate

6.0

4.4

1.6

2.1

33

Will Fuller

5.3

4.4

0.9

2.1

34

Brandin Cooks

2.6

4.4

-1.7

2.1

35

D.J. Moore

4.6

4.3

0.3

2.1

36

Auden Tate

3.7

4.3

-0.7

2.3

37

Robert Woods

2.7

4.3

-1.6

2.2

38

Christian Kirk

3.6

4.2

-0.6

2.0

39

DK Metcalf

5.3

4.2

1.1

2.1

40

Marcus Johnson

3.9

4.1

-0.2

2.0

41

Chris Conley

4.0

4.1

-0.2

1.9

42

Michael Gallup

4.9

4.1

0.8

2.0

43

Michael Thomas

5.4

3.9

1.6

2.0

44

Sammy Watkins

3.2

3.8

-0.6

1.9

45

Alshon Jeffery

1.9

3.7

-1.8

1.8

46

Julian Edelman

3.6

3.7

-0.1

1.8

47

Adam Thielen

4.2

3.6

0.6

1.8

48

Nelson Agholor

1.6

3.5

-1.9

1.6

49

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

2.5

3.5

-1.0

1.6

50

Randall Cobb

5.3

3.4

1.9

1.7

51

T.Y. Hilton

1.7

3.4

-1.7

1.7

52

Zach Pascal

3.1

3.4

-0.3

1.7

53

Anthony Miller

2.6

3.2

-0.7

1.6

54

A.J. Brown

3.6

3.2

0.4

1.5

55

Demaryius Thomas

2.5

3.2

-0.7

1.6

56

Taylor Gabriel

4.4

3.1

1.3

1.6

57

Marquise Brown

3.9

3.1

0.8

1.4

58

Ted Ginn

2.0

3.0

-1.0

1.4

59

Phillip Dorsett

4.2

3.0

1.2

1.5

60

Tyler Boyd

3.5

3.0

0.5

1.4

61

Scotty Miller

2.3

2.9

-0.6

1.3

62

Emmanuel Sanders

3.3

2.9

0.5

1.4

63

JuJu Smith-Schuster

3.8

2.8

0.9

1.4

64

Allen Lazard

3.1

2.7

0.3

1.3

65

Jamison Crowder

2.8

2.7

0.1

1.4

66

Larry Fitzgerald

2.4

2.6

-0.2

1.3

67

Corey Davis

1.2

2.5

-1.3

1.3

68

Travis Benjamin

0.0

2.5

-2.5

1.2

69

Dede Westbrook

2.9

2.4

0.4

1.3

70

Josh Gordon

2.4

2.4

-0.1

1.1

71

Kenny Stills

4.6

2.4

2.2

1.1

72

Cooper Kupp

3.1

2.4

0.8

1.2

73

Marquise Goodwin

2.9

2.3

0.5

1.2

74

Diontae Johnson

3.0

2.3

0.7

1.1

75

Jakeem Grant

0.8

2.3

-1.5

1.1

76

Robert Foster

0.2

2.3

-2.1

1.0

77

Demarcus Robinson

3.5

2.3

1.2

1.1

78

Paul Richardson

0.9

2.2

-1.3

1.1

79

Damiere Byrd

1.5

2.1

-0.6

1.0

80

Danny Amendola

2.1

2.1

0.0

1.0

81

Cole Beasley

2.0

2.1

-0.1

1.0

82

Mohamed Sanu

0.8

2.1

-1.2

0.9

83

Jarius Wright

1.2

2.0

-0.8

1.1

84

Marvin Hall

4.1

2.0

2.1

0.9

85

Tim Patrick

2.0

1.9

0.0

1.0

86

Allen Hurns

2.2

1.9

0.3

0.9

87

Kelvin Harmon

1.5

1.9

-0.4

0.9

88

Mecole Hardman

3.9

1.9

2.1

0.9

89

Geronimo Allison

1.5

1.8

-0.3

0.9

90

Deebo Samuel

2.5

1.8

0.7

0.9

91

David Moore

1.5

1.8

-0.3

0.9

92

Tevin Jones

1.3

1.8

-0.5

0.8

93

KeeSean Johnson

0.7

1.8

-1.1

0.9

94

Bennie Fowler

0.0

1.7

-1.7

0.8

95

Josh Reynolds

1.6

1.7

-0.1

0.8

96

Jakobi Meyers

1.7

1.7

0.0

0.9

97

Zay Jones

0.6

1.6

-1.0

0.8

98

N'Keal Harry

0.4

1.6

-1.2

0.9

99

Alex Erickson

1.1

1.5

-0.4

0.7

100

Hunter Renfrow

1.5

1.5

0.0

0.8

 


The Most Efficient WRs on Deep Targets in 2019

Some of these receivers are negative regression candidates for 2020 as long as their usage stays the same, but most of these receivers are just really talented. If you think any of these receivers aren't very talented, then you should not take them in 2020 fantasy drafts after overperforming versus expectations this past season.

Rank

Receiver

PPR

Predicted

PPR +/-

Deep Targets

1

Stefon Diggs

7.5

4.5

3.0

2.0

2

Chris Godwin

7.7

5.2

2.5

2.5

3

Tyreek Hill

7.5

5.2

2.3

2.4

4

Kenny Stills

4.6

2.4

2.2

1.1

5

Marvin Hall

4.1

2.0

2.1

0.9

6

DeVante Parker

7.6

5.5

2.1

2.7

7

Mecole Hardman

3.9

1.9

2.1

0.9

8

Randall Cobb

5.3

3.4

1.9

1.7

9

Kenny Golladay

8.2

6.3

1.9

2.9

10

Golden Tate

6.0

4.4

1.6

2.1

11

Amari Cooper

6.5

4.9

1.6

2.3

12

Michael Thomas

5.4

3.9

1.6

2.0

13

Olamide Zaccheaus

1.6

0.2

1.4

0.1

14

Taylor Gabriel

4.4

3.1

1.3

1.6

15

Breshad Perriman

6.2

5.0

1.2

2.4

16

Demarcus Robinson

3.5

2.3

1.2

1.1

17

Phillip Dorsett

4.2

3.0

1.2

1.5

18

Courtland Sutton

5.5

4.4

1.1

2.1

19

Mike Evans

8.7

7.6

1.1

3.5

20

Laquon Treadwell

2.0

0.9

1.1

0.5

21

DK Metcalf

5.3

4.2

1.1

2.1

22

Terry McLaurin

6.1

5.1

1.1

2.4

23

Calvin Ridley

6.0

5.0

1.0

2.5

24

JuJu Smith-Schuster

3.8

2.8

0.9

1.4

25

Will Fuller

5.3

4.4

0.9

2.1

 


The Least Efficient WRs on Deep Targets in 2019

Some of these receivers are positive regression candidates for 2020 as long as their usage stays the same, but most of these receivers are just bad. If you think any of these receivers are truly talented, then you should get them slightly undervalued in 2020 fantasy drafts after underperforming versus expectations this past season.

Rank

Receiver

PPR

Predicted

PPR +/-

Deep Targets

1

Curtis Samuel

2.6

5.6

-3.0

2.8

2

Travis Benjamin

0.0

2.5

-2.5

1.2

3

Robert Foster

0.2

2.3

-2.1

1.0

4

Preston Williams

3.0

5.1

-2.0

2.6

5

Nelson Agholor

1.6

3.5

-1.9

1.6

6

Alshon Jeffery

1.9

3.7

-1.8

1.8

7

Brandin Cooks

2.6

4.4

-1.7

2.1

8

Bennie Fowler

0.0

1.7

-1.7

0.8

9

T.Y. Hilton

1.7

3.4

-1.7

1.7

10

Robert Woods

2.7

4.3

-1.6

2.2

11

Jakeem Grant

0.8

2.3

-1.5

1.1

12

Johnny Holton

0.0

1.4

-1.4

0.6

13

Odell Beckham

4.5

5.8

-1.3

2.8

14

Paul Richardson

0.9

2.2

-1.3

1.1

15

Corey Davis

1.2

2.5

-1.3

1.3

16

Mohamed Sanu

0.8

2.1

-1.2

0.9

17

N'Keal Harry

0.4

1.6

-1.2

0.9

18

Javon Wims

0.3

1.4

-1.1

0.7

19

KeeSean Johnson

0.7

1.8

-1.1

0.9

20

Zay Jones

0.6

1.6

-1.0

0.8

21

Andre Patton

0.0

1.0

-1.0

0.5

22

Ted Ginn

2.0

3.0

-1.0

1.4

23

Vyncint Smith

0.4

1.4

-1.0

0.6

24

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

2.5

3.5

-1.0

1.6

25

Julio Jones

6.1

7.1

-1.0

3.5

 


Outside vs. Middle Deep Targets

 

PPRWRLocation

 

A target over the middle (red) is worth more fantasy points than a target near the sideline (blue). My projected PPR points models accounts for the differences between the two types of targets, but it’s worth highlighting which receivers are seeing most of their targets on the outside vs. over the middle. Receivers who had a heavy dosage of outside targets and are changing teams or changing roles within an offense could be buys in 2020 fantasy drafts as they should see more over the middle targets. Here is the data for receivers with at least 20 deep targets last season, ordered by the receivers who had the highest percentage of his deep targets coming on the outside:

 

Rank

Receiver

% of Deep Targets Outside

Deep Outside Targets Per Game

Deep Middle Targets Per Game

1

Preston Williams

100%

2.6

0.0

2

Phillip Dorsett

95%

1.4

0.1

3

Curtis Samuel

91%

2.5

0.3

4

Darius Slayton

90%

2.0

0.2

5

Breshad Perriman

88%

2.1

0.3

6

D.J. Moore

88%

1.9

0.3

7

Odell Beckham

87%

2.4

0.4

8

Auden Tate

85%

1.9

0.3

9

DK Metcalf

85%

1.8

0.3

10

DeVante Parker

84%

2.3

0.4

11

Will Fuller

83%

1.7

0.4

12

Robert Woods

82%

1.8

0.4

13

Calvin Ridley

81%

2.0

0.5

14

John Ross

81%

2.1

0.5

15

Christian Kirk

81%

1.6

0.4

16

Larry Fitzgerald

80%

1.0

0.3

17

Keenan Allen

80%

2.2

0.6

18

Courtland Sutton

79%

1.7

0.4

19

Julio Jones

79%

2.8

0.7

20

A.J. Brown

79%

1.2

0.3

21

Allen Robinson

79%

2.1

0.6

22

Sterling Shepard

78%

1.8

0.5

23

Michael Thomas

78%

1.6

0.4

24

Davante Adams

77%

2.0

0.6

25

Jamison Crowder

77%

1.1

0.3

26

Ted Ginn

77%

1.1

0.3

27

Julian Edelman

76%

1.4

0.4

28

Jarvis Landry

76%

1.8

0.6

29

Robby Anderson

74%

2.0

0.7

30

Chris Conley

74%

1.4

0.5

31

Zach Pascal

74%

1.3

0.4

32

D.J. Chark

74%

1.7

0.6

33

John Brown

73%

2.2

0.8

34

Brandin Cooks

73%

1.6

0.6

35

Tyreek Hill

72%

1.8

0.7

36

Kenny Golladay

72%

2.1

0.8

37

Anthony Miller

72%

1.1

0.4

38

Michael Gallup

71%

1.4

0.6

39

Mike Williams

71%

2.1

0.9

40

Emmanuel Sanders

71%

1.0

0.4

41

Stefon Diggs

70%

1.4

0.6

42

Allen Lazard

70%

0.9

0.4

43

Tyler Boyd

70%

1.0

0.4

44

Tyler Lockett

69%

1.6

0.7

45

James Washington

69%

1.7

0.7

46

Sammy Watkins

69%

1.3

0.6

47

Chris Godwin

69%

1.7

0.8

48

Randall Cobb

68%

1.1

0.5

49

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

68%

1.1

0.5

50

Terry McLaurin

67%

1.6

0.8

51

Mike Evans

67%

2.3

1.2

52

Marvin Jones

65%

1.7

0.9

53

Tyrell Williams

62%

1.3

0.8

54

Golden Tate

61%

1.3

0.8

55

DeAndre Hopkins

59%

1.5

1.0

56

Amari Cooper

58%

1.3

0.9

 

It’s not surprising to see the least efficient receiver on deep targets in 2019 (Curtis Samuel) near the top of this table. The Panthers put Samuel in awful situations all year long. 92% of his total targets came on outside targets, and 42% of his targets traveled more than 15 yards downfield despite Kyle Allen having the arm strength and accuracy of a Rotoworld writer. No receiver needs a new quarterback and/or role change more than Samuel. If he gets one or both of those things this offseason, Samuel is a sure-fire buy-low candidate for August fantasy drafts. Very similar things can be said about Odell Beckham and Preston Williams

 

What's Next?

1. 2019 Receiving TD Report - Expected vs. Actual TDs

2. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (WRs)

3. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (TEs)

4. 2019 Rushing TD Report - Expected vs. Actual TDs

5. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (RBs)

6. 2019 Passing TD Report - Expected vs. Actual TDs

7. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (QBs)

 

As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks) if you have questions or ideas on what to study next.