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Beyond the Box Score

2019 Rushing Efficiency Rankings

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: March 25, 2020, 10:55 am ET

Before we get into the efficiency rankings, I have to mention that rushing efficiency is largely reliant on a running back's environment. Dimitry Gordeev, the $50,000 winner of the NFL’s Big Data Bowlsaid, “At the moment of handoff, it is not statistically important who is the ball carrier. It is important what is the situation on the field, driven by starting formations and movements of the players prior to handoff, including rusher’s movement.” Basically, a running back has control of how fast he can run, how strong he is, and how good his vision is, but where blockers and defenders are at the time of the handoff is far more important to predicting the success of a carry than how talented that player is. This means that the most talented running backs will NOT be the most efficient runners in a given season, and that the most efficient runners are NOT necessarily the most talented running backs. How good their play callers and offensive lines are will play into these rushing efficiency rankings. Keep that in mind.

 

2019 NFL Rushing Efficiency

There were 70 players with at least 50 non-QB scramble carries last season. Here’s how they ranked in the following four efficiency metrics: "EPA per Carry" - analyzes the real-football value of a carry using expected points added, "Success Rate" - how often a carry improves his team’s winning percentage, "PPR Fantasy Points per Carry" - it underestimates the randomness of TDs but is useful, and "Yards per Carry" - the quickest and easiest way to measure rushing efficiency. 

Player

Team

EPA/Carry

Success Rate

PPR/Carry

Yards/Carry

Carries

K.Murray

ARI

0.33 (1)

53% (2)

1.14 (1)

6.87 (1)

53 (66)

L.Jackson

BAL

0.28 (2)

53% (1)

0.99 (2)

6.82 (2)

115 (38)

K.Drake

ARI

0.16 (3)

43% (9)

0.92 (3)

5.26 (7)

122 (36)

J.Wilkins

IND

0.13 (4)

43% (7)

0.84 (9)

6.02 (3)

51 (70)

M.Ingram

BAL

0.12 (5)

45% (6)

0.80 (12)

5.02 (13)

202 (20)

C.Edmonds

ARI

0.12 (6)

42% (11)

0.91 (6)

5.05 (12)

60 (60)

R.Penny

SEA

0.07 (7)

42% (12)

0.85 (8)

5.69 (4)

65 (56)

G.Edwards

BAL

0.07 (8)

42% (10)

0.62 (33)

5.35 (6)

133 (32)

A.Jones

GB

0.06 (9)

42% (14)

0.87 (7)

4.59 (23)

236 (15)

D.Cook

MIN

0.06 (10)

41% (18)

0.77 (15)

4.54 (25)

250 (8)

R.Mostert

SF

0.05 (11)

38% (30)

0.91 (4)

5.64 (5)

137 (30)

E.Elliott

DAL

0.05 (12)

40% (23)

0.69 (20)

4.51 (26)

301 (2)

R.Burkhead

NE

0.04 (13)

42% (12)

0.74 (17)

4.65 (19)

65 (56)

J.Howard

PHI

0.03 (14)

43% (8)

0.74 (16)

4.41 (30)

119 (37)

T.Pollard

DAL

0.03 (15)

45% (5)

0.66 (23)

5.25 (8)

87 (48)

D.Henry

TEN

0.03 (16)

40% (22)

0.83 (10)

5.08 (10)

303 (1)

M.Mack

IND

0.03 (17)

41% (16)

0.63 (30)

4.41 (31)

248 (9)

C.McCaffrey

CAR

0.01 (18)

38% (33)

0.80 (13)

4.84 (16)

287 (4)

J.Jacobs

OAK

0.01 (19)

36% (40)

0.65 (25)

4.75 (17)

241 (14)

B.Scott

PHI

0.01 (20)

39% (27)

0.91 (5)

4.02 (44)

59 (62)

D.Singletary

BUF

0.01 (21)

40% (21)

0.59 (38)

5.09 (9)

149 (28)

J.Williams

GB

0.00 (22)

41% (20)

0.49 (57)

4.33 (36)

106 (42)

N.Hines

IND

-0.01 (23)

46% (3)

0.61 (35)

3.83 (51)

52 (69)

L.Murray

NO

-0.01 (24)

36% (43)

0.64 (26)

4.36 (33)

146 (29)

C.Hyde

HOU

-0.01 (25)

39% (28)

0.58 (39)

4.37 (32)

245 (11)

P.Lindsay

DEN

-0.03 (26)

36% (44)

0.64 (29)

4.49 (27)

225 (16)

N.Chubb

CLE

-0.04 (27)

38% (29)

0.68 (21)

5.01 (14)

298 (3)

C.Carson

SEA

-0.04 (28)

41% (17)

0.62 (34)

4.42 (29)

278 (5)

B.Hill

ATL

-0.04 (29)

36% (42)

0.57 (41)

4.14 (41)

78 (51)

L.McCoy

KC

-0.04 (30)

41% (19)

0.70 (19)

4.60 (22)

101 (44)

S.Michel

NE

-0.05 (31)

38% (32)

0.54 (46)

3.69 (56)

247 (10)

J.Mixon

CIN

-0.05 (32)

37% (36)

0.52 (51)

4.09 (42)

278 (5)

L.Fournette

JAX

-0.06 (33)

33% (54)

0.50 (54)

4.33 (35)

266 (7)

M.Sanders

PHI

-0.06 (34)

34% (48)

0.56 (43)

4.59 (24)

178 (22)

Dam.Williams

KC

-0.07 (35)

35% (46)

0.77 (14)

4.49 (28)

111 (41)

S.Barkley

NYG

-0.07 (36)

36% (41)

0.63 (32)

4.62 (20)

217 (18)

J.Hill

BAL

-0.08 (37)

29% (64)

0.59 (37)

3.88 (47)

58 (63)

M.Gordon

LAC

-0.08 (38)

38% (31)

0.67 (22)

3.78 (54)

162 (26)

A.Ekeler

LAC

-0.08 (39)

36% (38)

0.56 (44)

4.22 (39)

132 (33)

A.Kamara

NO

-0.09 (40)

42% (15)

0.64 (27)

4.66 (18)

171 (24)

A.Peterson

WAS

-0.09 (41)

34% (51)

0.57 (42)

4.26 (37)

211 (19)

T.Gurley

LAR

-0.09 (42)

40% (24)

0.70 (18)

3.83 (50)

224 (17)

D.Johnson

HOU

-0.10 (43)

37% (35)

0.64 (28)

4.94 (15)

83 (49)

M.Brown

LAR

-0.10 (44)

35% (45)

0.81 (11)

3.66 (59)

68 (53)

D.Johnson

ARI

-0.10 (45)

33% (55)

0.49 (55)

3.67 (58)

94 (46)

B.Scarbrough

DET

-0.10 (46)

45% (4)

0.49 (56)

4.24 (38)

89 (47)

M.Walton

MIA

-0.10 (47)

40% (26)

0.38 (66)

3.79 (52)

53 (66)

R.Freeman

DEN

-0.10 (48)

31% (60)

0.51 (53)

3.76 (55)

131 (34)

T.Johnson

DET

-0.11 (49)

33% (52)

0.43 (60)

4.33 (34)

63 (59)

D.Washington

OAK

-0.11 (50)

34% (50)

0.53 (49)

3.57 (62)

106 (42)

A.Mattison

MIN

-0.12 (51)

30% (62)

0.52 (50)

4.62 (21)

100 (45)

R.Jones

TB

-0.12 (52)

31% (58)

0.63 (31)

4.21 (40)

172 (23)

M.Breida

SF

-0.12 (53)

34% (49)

0.56 (45)

5.07 (11)

123 (35)

T.Coleman

SF

-0.12 (54)

28% (67)

0.66 (24)

3.97 (45)

137 (30)

K.Johnson

DET

-0.12 (55)

36% (39)

0.57 (40)

3.57 (61)

113 (40)

B.Powell

NYJ

-0.13 (56)

31% (59)

0.39 (65)

3.86 (49)

58 (63)

J.Conner

PIT

-0.14 (57)

37% (34)

0.61 (36)

4.03 (43)

115 (38)

T.Cohen

CHI

-0.15 (58)

34% (47)

0.33 (69)

3.33 (64)

64 (58)

F.Gore

BUF

-0.15 (59)

29% (65)

0.44 (59)

3.64 (60)

165 (25)

D.Montgomery

CHI

-0.16 (60)

32% (57)

0.52 (52)

3.67 (57)

242 (13)

P.Barber

TB

-0.16 (61)

30% (63)

0.54 (47)

3.05 (67)

154 (27)

B.Snell Jr.

PIT

-0.18 (62)

30% (61)

0.53 (48)

3.78 (53)

79 (50)

J.Samuels

PIT

-0.18 (63)

33% (52)

0.36 (68)

2.65 (68)

66 (55)

L.Bell

NYJ

-0.19 (64)

33% (56)

0.40 (63)

3.22 (65)

245 (11)

J.White

NE

-0.19 (65)

40% (25)

0.48 (58)

3.88 (46)

68 (53)

D.Freeman

ATL

-0.19 (66)

28% (66)

0.42 (62)

3.57 (63)

184 (21)

D.Lewis

TEN

-0.24 (67)

37% (37)

0.39 (64)

3.87 (48)

54 (65)

K.Ballage

MIA

-0.25 (68)

27% (68)

0.43 (61)

1.79 (70)

73 (52)

P.Laird

MIA

-0.29 (69)

23% (69)

0.37 (67)

2.65 (69)

60 (60)

G.Bernard

CIN

-0.33 (70)

19% (70)

0.32 (70)

3.21 (66)

53 (66)

 

 

2019 NFL Short-Yardage Rushing Efficiency

There were 43 players who had at least 10 non-QB scramble carries with two or fewer yards to go for a first down or touchdown. 

Player Team EPA/Carry Success Rate PPR/Carry Yards/Carry Carries
J.Allen BUF 0.91 (1) 83% (2) 1.22 (22) 2.17 (29) 12 (30)
K.Drake ARI 0.75 (2) 85% (1) 2.35 (2) 5.08 (4) 13 (27)
D.Cook MIN 0.69 (3) 71% (7) 1.40 (11) 3.41 (16) 17 (19)
A.Ingold OAK 0.50 (4) 70% (8) 0.17 (42) 1.70 (36) 10 (36)
E.Elliott DAL 0.48 (5) 76% (5) 1.78 (6) 3.48 (14) 21 (12)
D.Henry TEN 0.46 (6) 81% (3) 2.40 (1) 3.95 (9) 21 (12)
C.Carson SEA 0.31 (7) 63% (15) 1.32 (16) 3.74 (11) 38 (1)
C.Wentz PHI 0.31 (8) 76% (4) 0.50 (35) 1.47 (40) 17 (19)
M.Ingram BAL 0.28 (9) 61% (16) 1.65 (9) 3.43 (15) 23 (7)
L.Bell NYJ 0.26 (10) 69% (11) 0.98 (25) 2.25 (27) 16 (22)
J.Jacobs OAK 0.21 (11) 43% (31) 0.80 (31) 5.39 (3) 23 (7)
L.Jackson BAL 0.17 (12) 64% (14) 1.44 (10) 5.86 (1) 14 (25)
T.Gurley LAR 0.16 (13) 68% (12) 1.32 (17) 3.56 (13) 25 (5)
J.Mixon CIN 0.16 (14) 67% (13) 0.63 (34) 4.04 (7) 27 (2)
L.Fournette JAX 0.14 (15) 56% (20) 0.90 (26) 2.33 (26) 27 (2)
G.Edwards BAL 0.08 (16) 50% (24) 0.33 (40) 3.25 (18) 16 (22)
A.Ekeler LAC 0.07 (17) 75% (6) 1.33 (15) 3.33 (17) 12 (30)
C.Hyde HOU 0.05 (18) 55% (23) 0.80 (30) 2.59 (25) 22 (9)
L.McCoy KC 0.03 (19) 40% (34) 1.40 (11) 2.00 (30) 10 (36)
P.Lindsay DEN 0.00 (20) 38% (39) 1.29 (19) 1.63 (37) 16 (22)
D.Johnson ARI -0.07 (21) 60% (17) 1.39 (13) 1.90 (32) 10 (36)
P.Barber TB -0.08 (22) 50% (24) 1.00 (24) 1.43 (41) 14 (25)
A.Jones GB -0.12 (23) 50% (24) 1.70 (7) 1.95 (31) 20 (14)
J.White NE -0.12 (24) 70% (8) 0.90 (26) 3.00 (19) 10 (36)
A.Peterson WAS -0.12 (25) 46% (29) 1.22 (21) 3.00 (19) 13 (27)
M.Sanders PHI -0.12 (26) 58% (18) 1.29 (18) 2.92 (22) 12 (30)
D.Montgomery CHI -0.13 (27) 36% (40) 1.27 (20) 1.82 (34) 22 (9)
M.Gordon LAC -0.15 (28) 56% (20) 1.86 (5) 1.89 (33) 18 (17)
J.Williams GB -0.17 (29) 70% (8) 0.89 (28) 2.90 (23) 10 (36)
S.Michel NE -0.18 (30) 56% (20) 1.09 (23) 0.89 (43) 18 (17)
C.McCaffrey CAR -0.20 (31) 41% (33) 1.66 (8) 2.95 (21) 22 (9)
L.Murray NO -0.25 (32) 41% (32) 0.40 (38) 4.00 (8) 17 (19)
A.Kamara NO -0.25 (33) 58% (18) 1.89 (4) 3.92 (10) 12 (30)
S.Barkley NYG -0.26 (34) 47% (28) 0.86 (29) 5.42 (2) 19 (16)
D.Williams KC -0.27 (35) 40% (34) 1.36 (14) 1.60 (38) 10 (36)
D.Freeman ATL -0.30 (36) 38% (38) 0.49 (36) 4.92 (5) 13 (27)
N.Chubb CLE -0.33 (37) 45% (30) 0.41 (37) 4.05 (6) 20 (14)
D.Washington OAK -0.43 (38) 40% (34) 0.37 (39) 3.70 (12) 10 (36)
F.Gore BUF -0.44 (39) 19% (43) 0.73 (32) 2.69 (24) 26 (4)
M.Mack IND -0.46 (40) 32% (42) 0.16 (43) 1.60 (38) 25 (5)
T.Coleman SF -0.58 (41) 36% (40) 0.73 (33) 1.82 (34) 11 (35)
R.Jones TB -0.62 (42) 40% (34) 0.22 (41) 2.20 (28) 10 (36)
K.Johnson DET -0.64 (43) 50% (24) 2.14 (3) 1.42 (42) 12 (30)

 

Fantasy Football Content

1. Offensive NFL Depth Charts

2. Free Agency Winners and Losers

3. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (WR)

4. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (TE)

5. 2019 Deep Target Efficiency Rankings

6. 2019 Expected Receiving TD Rankings

 

NFL Draft Content

1. Early 2020 Mock Draft

2. Analytics Top 300 Rankings

3. Winks QB Rankings

4. Analytics TE Rankings

5. Analytics RB Rankings

6. Analytics WR Rankings

7. 2020 Adjusted SPARQ Scores (Offense)

8. 2020 Adjusted SPARQ Scores (Defense)

9. Which Combine Tests Matter