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Cap Considerations

Draft Kings: Foxwoods Resort Casino 301

by Dan Beaver
Updated On: July 19, 2019, 11:59 am ET

Short, flat tracks are often marked by long streaks of top-10s. Two of the most successful drivers (Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick) in the past three seasons have amassed streaks of more than 10 while several others have been almost perfect in regard to top-15s.

So far this season last year’s Big 3, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex Jr., have picked up where they left off with sweeps of the top 10 on minimally-banked courses 1-mile or less in length: Ingenuity Sun Media Raceway, Martinsville Speedway, and Richmond Raceway. There is little reason to doubt they will be less successful on the fourth different course of this type – and anyone setting multiple lineups for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway should anchor three of those rosters with each driver.

Denny Hamlin is the fourth and final driver with a sweep of the top 10 on short, flat tracks and he has been the best among them with three consecutive fifth-place finishes – making him the only driver with a sweep of the top five.

Several others (Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Clint Bowyer, and Aric Almirola) have scored two top-10s in three races. The majority of them will leave New Hampshire three-for-four.


Group A: 6 Most Expensive (>=$10,000)

Kyle Busch ($11,900)
By the numbers Busch continues to be the choice for a driver who is going to earn maximum points on a given week; Draft Kings knows this and is going to make you pay through the nose to start the No. 18. On short, flat tracks measuring 1-mile or less in length, Busch has a current 14-race, top-10 streak that includes six victories. Last year, he was second to Harvick ($11,100) in this race, but the driver of the No. 4 has no momentum on his side whatsoever and it’s hard to think of him as a favorite to earn a top-five.

Group B: (Between $9,700 and $8,600)

Denny Hamlin ($9,700)
Based on the last 45 days Hamlin has been one of the worst values in Draft Kings, but that is due to change this week. He has been stellar on short, flat tracks throughout his career. In the past several seasons, Hamlin has lost that consistency, but it has returned in 2019. Hamlin finished fifth at Phoenix, Martinsville, and Richmond—all tracks on which he previously excelled. New Hampshire is another great track for him; in fact, it is his fourth-best track in terms of career average finishes.

Ryan Blaney ($8,600)
If the Team Penske teammates Joey Logano ($10,300) and Brad Keselowski ($10,700) are too expensive this week, Blaney is solid option. While he has not yet scored a top-five at New Hampshire, he enters with back-to-back top-10s including a seventh in this race last year. Four of his last five attempts on the 1-mile flat track ended 12th or better. Dollar for dollar, he is likely to be one of this week’s best values.

Group C: (Between $8,400 and $7,200)

Ryan Newman ($7,600)
Newman has been rightly priced for the past month. He has commanded a price tag of $7,500 to $7,900 since the Firekeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway and on three occasions he has produced top-10 points in the race. Last week was one of his best Draft Kings outings with the fourth-most points of 65.25. We expect that he will at least match his recent average points’ production of 42.3 this week and if so, that will keep him as one of the best values at this level.  

Jimmie Johnson ($8,000)
Last week was a huge disappointment for Johnson’s owners. He should easily have finished in the top 10. He was running that well until an unforced error sent him into the wall, off the lead lap, and drained points for the first time this year. Granted he lost only one point, but we were expecting something in the range of 50 and given his $8,100 price tag, that was catastrophic. This team is still on the rise, however, and it’s hard to imagine he will stay down long. The last time NASCAR was at a short, flat track, Johnson scored 56 points at Richmond.

Group D: (Between $7,100 and $6,000)

Ryan Preece ($6,000)
Since Draft Kings has six drivers this week with a salary cap of greater than $10k, they made some adjustments in the lower ranges. That could open the door for some new dark horses we have not considered for a while. Preece has two things going in his favor: 1) Even though he had problems at Phoenix, he has been solid in the last two short, flat track races with a 16th at Martinsville and 20th at Richmond. 2) The Connecticut native has the important intangible of returning to his home track.

Chris Buescher ($7,100)
One can vote the straight JTG-Daugherty Racing ticket this week. Buescher has been consistent on short, flat tracks this year with a worst finish of 22nd and a best of 16th. The good news is that his strongest run came at Phoenix in the spring and the two 1-mile tracks are similar enough to believe he can do that again. Buescher was a solid value last week at Kentucky with 49 points. This week, he has that same capability and costs $200 less.

Group E: (Less than or equal to $5,900)

Matt Tifft ($5,300)
Several unaccustomed drivers had strong showings at Phoenix this spring. Tifft was one of them with a 20th-place finish. In the Draft Kings game he was even more productive and the 34 points he banked made him the 14th-highest earner in the game. For a driver commanding $5,400 at the time, it was easily one of the best points-per-dollar values that week. In the last eight weeks he has earned the 22nd-most or better points six times and currently sits atop the rankings in the chart shown below.

NASCAR Fantasy Live Preview 

 

Driver

Avg.
Rank

Total
Points
Earned

Avg.
Points

This
Week's
Cap

Points
Per K

Group

Joey Logano

14.80

227.50

45.50

$10,300

          4.42

A

Kyle Busch

9.40

243.00

48.60

$11,900

          4.08

A

Martin Truex Jr.

13.60

204.75

40.95

$11,500

          3.56

A

Kevin Harvick

16.20

170.75

34.15

$11,100

          3.08

A

Brad Keselowski

19.20

108.75

21.75

$10,700

          2.03

A

 

Alex Bowman

12.60

217.50

43.50

$8,800

          4.94

B

Kurt Busch

10.60

225.25

45.05

$9,200

          4.90

B

Kyle Larson

12.40

205.25

41.05

$9,400

          4.37

B

Erik Jones

14.40

196.50

39.30

$9,000

          4.37

B

Ryan Blaney

15.00

163.75

32.75

$8,600

          3.81

B

Denny Hamlin

16.80

153.00

30.60

$9,700

          3.15

B

Chase Elliott

24.60

59.25

11.85

$10,000

          1.19

B

 

Ryan Newman

12.00

211.50

42.30

$7,600

          5.57

C

William Byron

15.00

177.00

35.40

$7,400

          4.78

C

Jimmie Johnson

15.40

168.00

33.60

$8,000

          4.20

C

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

18.80

142.75

28.55

$7,200

          3.97

C

Aric Almirola

16.00

156.75

31.35

$8,200

          3.82

C

Daniel Suarez

20.00

118.50

23.70

$7,800

          3.04

C

Clint Bowyer

25.20

45.00

9.00

$8,400

          1.07

C

 

Matt DiBenedetto

13.00

197.00

39.40

$6,600

          5.97

D

Chris Buescher

13.20

184.75

36.95

$7,100

          5.20

D

Paul Menard

16.00

151.25

30.25

$6,800

          4.45

D

Ty Dillon

20.80

119.50

23.90

$6,200

          3.85

D

Daniel Hemric

20.80

121.50

24.30

$6,400

          3.80

D

Ryan Preece

27.40

77.75

15.55

$6,000

          2.59

D

Austin Dillon

25.40

56.00

11.20

$6,900

          1.62

D

 

Matt Tifft

19.20

141.00

28.20

$5,300

          5.32

E

Corey LaJoie

20.60

130.00

26.00

$5,500

          4.73

E

Bubba Wallace

20.00

133.00

26.60

$5,700

          4.67

E

Landon Cassill

22.60

117.50

23.50

$5,200

          4.52

E

Ross Chastain

24.25

74.50

18.63

$5,400

          3.45

E

Michael McDowell

27.00

91.25

18.25

$5,900

          3.09

E

Reed Sorenson

30.00

25.50

12.75

$5,000

          2.55

E

David Ragan

27.80

50.50

10.10

$5,600

          1.80

E

Quin Houff

30.75

34.50

8.63

$5,100

          1.69

E

Austin Theriault

 

 

 

$4,900

             -  

E

Andy Seuss

 

 

 

$4,800

             -  

E

 

Dan Beaver
Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.