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Full disclosure from week 10
Let’s take a quick look at the players we called out last week to see how they performed to keep us honest. Week 10 we regained our form getting 3 out of 4 over valued players right. We are now at 33 out of 44 on the year so far.
Calvin Johnson - $8,000 (11.10 FDP)
Megatron played through his ankle injury and although he did see some usage he nowhere near returned value at his price tag.
DeAngelo Williams - $7,600 (7.60 FDP)
We put the brakes on D-Will last week when a lot of folks chased the dragon from week 9 due to reports of his foot injury. In a game where the Steelers went buckwild over the Browns D-Will was nowhere to be seen.
LeSean McCoy - $7,400 (18.40 FDP)
McCoy made us look bad this last week playing through a shoulder injury.
Eddie Lacy - $6,000 DNP
Questionable players for week 11
Sam Bradford ($7,000)
Bradford left week 10’s close game against the Dolphins with a grade 2 A/C joint sprain in his non-throwing shoulder and a concussion. Reports are that the shoulder should not be an issue and his presence at training yesterday indicates that he is in the concussion protocol and should be able to play this week.
Although it’s a great matchup at Tampa Bay you’re not trusting Bradford this week. He has a very long injury history and is one of our most likely QBs to get injured this season. As we’ve seen with several players who have tried to play through injury (Alshon and Lynch are good examples) there is often times a cascading injury effect whereby one injury leads to another. It wouldn’t surprise me if this is what ends up happening with Bradford. It’s unlikely in a season that Bradford is going to want to ultimately forget that he hits form the week after he gets injured. Avoid.
Marshawn Lynch ($8,100)
Something is up with Lynch. Maybe his heart is not in it, maybe he has lost a step or maybe he really is playing hurt. This week was the third time this season that he has been a game-time decision, this time for a reported abdominal strain. Without knowing anything else other than what is being reported it’s hard to say what the issue is – but there is more than meets the eye here. You can confidently fade Lynch this week even in an enticing matchup against the 49ers as there are several better options available at his price: Ivory ($7,200) @ Houston, Miller ($7,400) @ Dallas and West ($7,100) @ San Diego.
TJ Yeldon ($6,400)
After slogging through a tough week against Baltimore Yeldon was spotted in a walking boot on Monday. He is reportedly fine for this week’s Thursday night’s clash against the Titans but we don’t think that is the case. While he may get the start and feel like he can play through the injury, foot injuries are particularly troublesome for NFL athletes. It’s unlikely you see value on a short week with so little time to recover. Fade.
Emmanuel Sanders ($7,600)
Sanders suffered an ankle injury in week 9 and was held without a catch in week 10. During the game he was checked out for a concussion (turned out he didn’t have one) and injured a finger. This after coming down with a shoulder injury in week 8. With Brock Osweiler under center there are unknowns in Denver beyond Sanders availability and how he will performed so banged up. This is not the week to play him even in what would be a solid matchup against the leaky Bears secondary.
A Player whose value is boosted by surrounding injuries this week:
Demarco Murray ($7,600)
Although not living up to the narrative of the offseason hype Murray has been unspectacularly solid since week 5 posting 100 yard from scrimmage games in all but one contest along with 3 TDs over that span. Week 11 sees Murray up against a Bucs D surprisingly stout against the run and who are ranked 4th in Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA after 10 weeks of football. No one is doubting Murray’s talent and with either a banged up Bradford or inept Sanchez as well as seemingly sans Mathews (concussion), Murray should be in for a nice volume of work on Sunday.