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DFS Injury Zone: Week 3

by Jake Davidow
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Sports Injury Predictor has partnered with Rotoworld in 2015 to give you an even greater chance winning your weekly DFS games this coming season. As a quick introduction we have an algorithm that figures out which players are more likely to get injured in the coming season. Follow us on Twitter @injurypredictor and check out our injury search engine here for the complete injury history and probability for every player in the NFL.

 



Introduction

 

The pricing algorithms for most daily sites are really good at figuring out a players’ value. They don’t release the factors that make up their pricing equations but with a quick eyeball test it becomes very clear that there is a correlation between previous performance and price. As with any scaled, automated method of producing values, inefficiencies will arise that can be exploited.

 

We’re going to focus on Fanduel. A quick look at the player pricing will show you that it appears that there is a heavy skew that prices players higher who have performed well in the last few weeks. As a result, players who are injured are not picked up by the algorithm. This includes players who are not going to be playing at all and players who are in fact playing through injuries.

 

We will look to take advantage of pricing inefficiencies in the pricing algorithm brought about through injury. This column will provide analysis on players who are currently injured and priced over or under market value on Fanduel.

 

 

 

Full disclosure from week 2

 

Let’s take a quick look at the players we called out last week to see how they performed to keep us honest. In week 2 we got three out of four correct which puts us at 7 out of 8 on the year so far.

 

 

Mike Evans ($8,100) – 0 Fanduel points

 

Evans drew a big fat donut his first game of the year. He was a clear decoy in a game that the Bucs won pretty easily surprising everyone (Vegas had the Saints as 10 point favorites). He should fare better this week and Tampa Bay might be forced into using him even if he is not 100% yet as Austin Seferian-Jenkins looks like he is dealing with a potential multi-week shoulder injury.

 

 

C.J. Spiller $6,100) – 3.1 Fanduel points

 

Spiller returned from his knee injury this last week but was used very sparingly. With Drew Brees suffering a shoulder injury that may require him to rest a few weeks there is a very real chance Spiller gets more action in the near term as screens and quick dump-offs become the all the rage in New Orleans to hide the shortcomings of the Saints passing game.

 

 

TY Hilton ($7,600) – 6.5 Fanduel points

 

Hilton was not himself in a game that turned into the Donte Moncrief show. He was visibly in pain as he hobbled off after his one large gain on the night and it looks like this injury will take a few weeks for him to recover fully from.

 

 

Derek Carr ($6,100) – 27.34 Fanduel Points

 

This was our first huge miss of the season; however, I don’t think anyone saw this one coming. The Raiders walked all over the same Ravens team that humbled the Broncos for 3.5 quarters the week before and Derek Carr looked unstoppable giving two of his receivers 100 yard performances on the day.

 

 

 

Overvalued played in week 3


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Players who are not playing due to injury

 

These are guys you’re not even considering because they are out due to injury

 

Arian Foster

Todd Gurley

Julius Thomas

Jordy Nelson

Andre Ellington

Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Tony Romo

Tevin Coleman

 

 

 

Players who are questionable

 

Eddie Lacy ($7,700)

 

Lacy injured his ankle on the first drive of the game against Seattle on Sunday and was unable to return. He was seen heavily strapped up on the sideline and unable to put any weight on the injured ankle. Reports are that the injury is not severe and that he could very well suit up for the Monday night tilt against the Chiefs.

 

 

While the matchup is not daunting on paper (the Packers are 7 point favorites) there are several scenarios that could ruin your night.

 

1)      Game script: If the Packers get off to a hot start he could get pulled allowing Starks to wind down the clock.

2)      Team attitude to injury: The Packers are notoriously cautious with injured players and may put him on a snap count.

3)      Re-injury: Ankle injuries being what they are there is also a very real chance he aggravates his ankle and is forced out of the game.

 

 

At this price point you could go for someone like Mark Ingram ($7,900) who will for all accounts looks to be carrying the Saints offense on his back this coming week against Carolina.

 

 

Drew Brees ($8,400)

 

Brees injured his shoulder after getting hit against the Bucs. After conflicting reports an MRI revealed no severe injury (rotator cuff tear as was feared) and a second opinion confirmed this. There is a chance he sits this week but if he plays he is facing the Panthers who have allowed 258 passing yards against them total in the first two games. Avoid especially at his cost.

 

 

Chris Ivory ($7,100)

 

Ivory played through a groin injury on Monday night but was reportedly “sore” and unsure if he would be able to make it through the game against the Colts. Ivory has had a great start to the season and it’s clear he has top 10 potential every week he plays. The only thing that has kept him back from producing at this level throughout his career is injury and the fact that he has a soft tissue injury that is reportedly limiting his ability to stay on the field should be seen as a huge red flag. His price point is not that expensive against a soft Eagles run D but temper expectations for a player who is currently injured and only has one full season of games in his 5 years in the NFL.

 

 

Melvin Gordon ($6,700) looked good and plays against a Vikings team that gave up 168 yards to Carlos Hyde in week 1 and Gio Bernard ($7,200) looked great against the Chargers last week who could be worth an add this week against the Ravens.

 

 

TY Hilton ($7,600)

 

Hilton was clearly not playing at full speed on Monday night. He also pulled up visibly hurt and needing to be helped by a team mate off the field after a catch and run in the second half. It’s going to take a few weeks for Hilton to come right here and the Colts have found the next man up in Moncrief and most likely will continue to allow Hilton to play at 50% to act as a decoy. There are some solid options at this price on Fanduel – Jarvis Landry ($7,600), Brandon Marshall ($7,400) and Julian Edelman ($7,700).