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DRAFT DFS Strategy: Monday

by Ryan Knaus
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

This column covers daily rankings and strategy for Draft.com's DFS games. If you aren’t familiar with DRAFT, it’s an innovative DFS game with a live draft feature -- instead of building within a salary cap, you're participating in snake drafts that typically last 2-5 minutes. The scoring system is identical to FanDuel, and anyone you draft is yours alone -- if you take Andre Drummond with your first pick, nobody else in your league can have him.

 

 

You can find more information at Draft.com or quickly join a contest from anywhere after downloading the app!

 

With eight games on the slate this Monday, there are plenty of ways to approach building your DRAFT teams. You can play the full schedule with H2H, 3-team, 6-team or 10-team lineups, or narrow your focus by focusing on just two games with the 9:30 ET slate that includes Golden State vs. San Antonio and Detroit vs. Sacramento. Before going any further, let's look at Vegas' lines for tonight's action:

 

Matchup

Over/Under

Spread

Bucks at Cavs

224.5

Cavs -2.5

Lakers at Pacers

218.5

Pacers -4.5

Hornets at Sixers

221

Sixers -8.5

Grizzlies at Nets

210

Nets -6.5

Nuggets at Heat

216

Heat -1.5

Bulls at Knicks

217

Knicks -5.0

Warriors at Spurs

203

Spurs -7.0

Pistons at Kings

205

Pistons -3.5

 

 

NOTE: Quinn Cook simply isn't listed in the DRAFT player pool tonight (as of 4pm ET, anyway). I have no explanation for that, but wanted to mention it so that owners in 6-team and 10-team drafts don't waste precious seconds while on-the-clock frantically trying to find him.

 

UNDERRATED PLAYERS

These players have a great chance to outperform their DRAFT projection.

 

 

Buddy Hield - SG - vs. Detroit (DRAFT projection: 24.7 FP)

 

I try to avoid 'recency bias' by acknowledging that a player with the hot hand can cool off at a moment's notice, but it's impossible to ignore Hield's recent output -- he's scored at least 22 points in three straight games, with fantasy-point totals of 44.7, 36.9 and 40.2. The Pistons are a middle-of-the-road team for matchup purposes, and the kicker is that Bogdan Bogdanovic (hamstring) has been ruled out tonight. The DRAFT default rankings have Hield buried deep in the guards, below guys like Andre Iguodala, Spencer Dinwiddie and J.J. Redick, so he's likely to be overlooked in way too many drafts.

 

 

JaMychal Green- PF - at Brooklyn (DRAFT projection: 29.7 FP)

 

Green's projected total is solid, but he makes the cut as 'underrated' for a simple reason -- as I write this, Marc Gasol is questionable to play vs. the Nets due to illness. The Grizzlies have zero incentive to win games and it makes sense to just hold out Marc, which would give a signficant bump to guys like Green, Deyonta Davis and Jarell Martin. The Nets are a plus-matchup for fantasy purposes in almost any situation, and they've been crushed by opposing big men lately, setting up Green for sneaky value in deeper DRAFT leagues.

 

 

Tyreke Evans - SG - at Brooklyn (DRAFT projection: 36.4 FP)

 

I'm as surprised as anyone that Evans is playing through a rib injury. It makes sense for him to build his value headnig into free agency, but why is Memphis giving him minutes at the expense of player development, and at the risk of actually winning games (they snapped a 19-game skid on Saturday). Nevertheless, Evans is rolling with 22.5 points, 8.0 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 2.0 steals over his past two games. This isn't a back-to-back situation, so Evans' minutes should be safe, and he'll be even busier than usual if Marc Gasol (illness) sits out tonight. Throw in a delectable matchup vs. the Nets, and I'll happily grab Tyreke as one of my top guards on DRAFT tonight.

 

 

Nikola Jokic - C - at Miami (DRAFT projection: 46.3 FP)

 

This is a reasonable projection for Jokic, but I love him tonight in a matchup vs. a Heat team still missing Hassan Whiteside (he's already been ruled out with his hip strain). There's nothing wrong with taking Andre Drummond (vs. the Kings) as the top center tonight, but I'll be thrilled to scoop up Jokic in the second spot -- he's exceeded 50 FP in four of the Nuggets' past six games, and should go to town vs. Bam Adebayo and Kelly Olynyk tonight.

 

 

Jeremy Lamb - SG - at Philly (DRAFT projection: 29.5)

 

Nicolas Batum (Achilles) is out tonight, which inevitably gives Lamb a bump in fantasy circles. He's a solid pickup in season-long leagues, and I'm fine targeting him in DFS tonight. The circumstances are altered, but with Batum out to begin the season (Oct. 18 - Nov. 1), Lamb averaged a respectable 16.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.8 turnovers -- 29.0 fantasy points. He's already been named the starter in place of Batum and I expect him to come out firing in what should be an up-tempo game in Philly -- it has the second-highest over/under of the night, behind only the Bucks/Cavs game.

 

 

OVERRATED PLAYERS

These players may not live up to their DRAFT projection.

 

 

Cameron Payne - PG - at New York (DRAFT projection: 28.2 FP)

 

Kris Dunn is out indefinitely with turf toe, which leaves Payne free to roam as the Bulls' default starting PG. That opportunity has made him a popular add in season-long leagues, but I'm not as sold on him for DFS tonight -- I'd rather take Isaiah Thomas, Jamal Murray or Dejounte Murray, who I expect will bounce back vs. the Warriors' decimated backcourt tonight. The Knicks have actually been the 12th-toughest team for opposing PGs over the past month, and I'd look elsewhere to round out my bench in 6-team or 10-team leagues.

 

 

Julius Randle - PF - at Indiana (DRAFT projection: 40.9 FP)

 

I get the allure with Randle -- he's been fantastic lately and many DFS owners are remembering his 68.3 fantasy-point detonation vs. the Cavs on Mar. 11. My hesitance to draft him tonight stems from two things -- he draws a rough matchup vs. Thaddeus Young and the Pacers (second-worst matchup vs. PFs over the past month), and there are plenty of appealing forwards in the same range...including Drayond Green as a centerpiece for the short-handed Wariors,  and Blake Griffin in an ideal matchup vs. the Kings. This isn't to say Randle is a bad option tonight, but I won't be reaching for him at the expense of a top-tier guard or center.

 

 

Marc Gasol - C - at Brooklyn (DRAFT projection: 39.9 FP)

 

I'm simply not convinced the Grizzlies will play Gasol tonight, which makes it impossible to draft him. He was a late addition to the injury report, popping up in the afternoon, and Memphis has zero incentive to trot him out there-- they just snapped their 19-game losing streak, so there's not even an argument to be made for 'pride'.

Ryan Knaus
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.